幼儿家庭教育的合力策略

幼儿期是人一生发展打好基础的一个重要阶段,家庭是幼儿生活和教育的第一场所,家庭教育对幼儿身心发展的影响最深刻、持续时间最长。在幼儿家庭教育中发挥家长榜样力量、尊重幼儿独立地位、发挥学校指导和引领作用、统筹社会资源支持,从而形成以家庭为核心,整合家长、学校、社会的力量,促进教育合力的形成。     

Multivariate process dispersion monitoring without subgrouping

The memory-type adaptive and non-adaptive control charts are among the best control charts for detecting small-to-moderate changes in the process parameter(s). In this paper, we propose the Crosier CUSUM (CCUSUM), EWMA, adaptive CCUSUM (ACCUSUM) and adaptive EWMA (AEWMA) charts for efficiently monitoring the changes in the covariance matrix of a multivariate normal process without subgrouping. Using extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the length characteristics of these control charts are computed. It turns out that the ACCUSUM and AEWMA charts perform uniformly and substantially better than the CCUSUM and EWMA charts when detecting a range of shift sizes in the covariance matrix. Moreover, the AEWMA chart outperforms the ACCUSUM chart. A real dataset is used to explain the implementation of the proposed control charts.     

媒介发展背景下收视注意力变化及其对电视剧创作的影响

媒介发展为大众传播带来巨大变化,影响了收视方式,也影响了观众对电视剧的注意力投入。从传统媒体时代到移动互联网时代,观众的注意力呈现出与收视氛围、收视状态变化相对应的特征变化——投入程度变深,投入时间缩短。观众的注意力从更换率低的、长时间的、无互动性的内容转移到更换频繁的、短时间的、有互动性的、社交式的内容上。在此情境下,电视剧创作必然呈现符合观众与媒介间注意力法则的新趋势——内容长度缩短,情节强度增强,以及对互动性进行一系列探索。     

韩国学生中介语各句长句子状语复杂度发展研究

通过分析韩国学生中介语句长为6-20个词句子的状语复杂度的发展情况,发现:初、中、高三级中介语各句长句子带状语句子比例、多层状语比例呈逐级上升趋势,多处状语比例和句首状语比例则呈逐级下降趋势;韩国学生中介语表现出句首状语比例超量、多处状语比例突出、多层状语比例不足的特点,在句长一定的前提下,多处状语与多层状语之间可能存在此消彼长的对立互补关系;研究同样发现中介语状语复杂度的发展具有不受教学输入语言制约的特点.     

全球价值链视角下中国钢铁产能过剩形成机制

国际分工背景下,提升产业价值链地位,破解低端锁定困境,既是化解过剩产能的出发点,也是落脚点。从国内制造业价值链、产业全球价值链及贸易结构等宏观层面,探究中国钢铁产业价值链低端锁定下的产能过剩形成机制,并聚焦于国际大型钢企,挖掘其微观原因。研究表明:钢铁产业处于中国制造业价值链近乎底部的位置,虽然增值能力总体有所增强,产业链条不断延伸,但与发达国家相比仍存在较大差距;在制造业价值链与钢铁产业全球价值链中存在的“微笑曲线”表明,中国钢铁产业的利润空间受到了国内外的双重挤压,产业升级压力巨大;国内议价、盈利能力普遍较差,下游业务联动不足及竞争优势缺乏是导致国内大型钢企的价值链低端锁定主要原因。目前而言,钢铁产业产能过剩与价值链低端锁定相互强化趋势明显。     

Generally weighted moving average control charts with fast initial response features

The generally weighted moving average (GWMA) control chart is an extension model of exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. Recently, some approaches have been proposed to modify EWMA charts with fast initial response (FIR) features. We introduce these approaches in GWMA-type charts. Via simulation, various control schemes are designed and then their average run lengths are computed and compared. Based on the overall performance, it is showed that the DGWMA chart is the best choice especially when the shift is moderate, and the GWMA charts provided with additional FIR feature have a good performance only in detecting large shifts during the initial stage.     

Nonparametric control charts based on runs and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics

In this article, we introduce three new distribution-free Shewhart-type control charts that exploit run and Wilcoxon-type rank-sum statistics to detect possible shifts of a monitored process. Exact formulae for the alarm rate, the run length distribution, and the average run length (ARL) are all derived. A key advantage of these charts is that, due to their nonparametric nature, the false alarm rate (FAR) and in-control run length distribution is the same for all continuous process distributions. Tables are provided for the implementation of the charts for some typical FAR values. Furthermore, a numerical study carried out reveals that the new charts are quite flexible and efficient in detecting shifts to Lehmann-type out-of-control situations.     

Transfer Pricing in Transition Economies: Evidence from Ukraine

Faced with possibilities and challenges of doing business under different regulatory regimes, transnational corporations have developed a number of transfer mechanisms to take advantage of profit maximization opportunities. Transfer pricing is a transfer mechanism widely used by transnational corporations. Implications of transfer pricing for profitability and the need for transfer pricing regulation are well understood by national governments, which is reflected in the fact that more than 60 governments have introduced some form of transfer pricing controls. Transfer pricing is a challenging issue for transition economies as their transfer pricing regulatory systems are less mature than those of developed countries. The authors have initiated an empirical study on transfer pricing strategies in the Ukrainian market. In addition, the national regulatory regime for transfer pricing was evaluated compared to international best practices. This article is an attempt to draw attention of the research community and Ukrainian policy-makers to transfer pricing issues in Ukraine.      

The performance of model averaged tail area confidence intervals

We investigate the exact coverage and expected length properties of the model averaged tail area (MATA) confidence interval proposed by Turek and Fletcher, CSDA, 2012, in the context of two nested, normal linear regression models. The simpler model is obtained by applying a single linear constraint on the regression parameter vector of the full model. For given length of response vector and nominal coverage of the MATA confidence interval, we consider all possible models of this type and all possible true parameter values, together with a wide class of design matrices and parameters of interest. Our results show that, while not ideal, MATA confidence intervals perform surprisingly well in our regression scenario, provided that we use the minimum weight within the class of weights that we consider on the simpler model.     

一种简单有效的二项分布比例参数似然比置信区间的求法

对二项分布比例参数p的似然比置信区间,提出一种简便求解方法。在平均覆盖率、平均区间长度及区间长度的95%置信区间准则下与WScore、Plus4、Jeffreys置信区间进行模拟比较。试验表明,在二项分布b(n,p)的参数n≥20且p∈(0.1,0.9)时,该方法获取的似然比置信区间性能优良。当点估计p值不是接近于0或1且n≥20时,推荐使用本方法获取p的置信区间。