A new double sampling control chart for monitoring process mean using auxiliary information

Statistical quality control charts have been widely accepted as a potentially powerful process monitoring tool because of their excellent speed in tracking shifts in the underlying process parameter(s). In recent studies, auxiliary-information-based (AIB) control charts have shown superior run length performances than those constructed without using it. In this paper, a new double sampling (DS) control chart is constructed whose plotting-statistics requires information on the study variable and on any correlated auxiliary variable for efficiently monitoring the process mean, namely AIB DS chart. The AIB DS chart also encompasses the classical DS chart. We discuss in detail the construction, optimal design, run length profiles, and the performance evaluations of the proposed chart. It turns out that the AIB DS chart performs uniformly better than the DS chart when detecting different kinds of shifts in the process mean. It is also more sensitive than the classical synthetic and AIB synthetic charts when detecting a particular shift in the process mean. Moreover, with some realistic beliefs, the proposed chart outperforms the exponentially weighted moving average chart. An illustrative example is also presented to explain the working and implementation of the proposed chart.     

A weighted likelihood ratio test-based chart for monitoring process mean and variability

In this paper, a new single exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart based on the weighted likelihood ratio test, referred to as the WLRT chart, is proposed for the problem of monitoring the mean and variance of a normally distributed process variable. It is easy to design, fast to compute, and quite effective for diverse cases including the detection of the decrease in variability and individual observation case. The optimal parameters that can be used as a design aid in selecting specific parameter values based on the average run length (ARL) and the sample size are provided. The in-control (IC) and out-of-control (OC) performance properties of the new chart are compared with some other existing EWMA-type charts. Our simulation results show that the IC run length distribution of the proposed chart is similar to that of a geometric distribution, and it provides quite a robust and satisfactory overall performance for detecting a wide range of shifts in the process mean and/or variability.     

关于黑龙江省朝鲜族留守儿童现状的调查与思考

朝鲜族是黑龙江省的世居民族。随着改革开放和城市化进程的日益加快,朝鲜族的人口流动越来越频繁,随之大量出现留守家庭及留守儿童现象。通过黑龙江省牡丹江地区和哈尔滨地区16所朝鲜族中小学的实地调查表明,留守儿童现象已成为朝鲜族社会发展和文化变迁中不可回避的现实问题,而产生的原因主要为父母在外打工和传统家庭观念的改变等两个方面。因此,从学校层面要建立多渠道、多方位的留守儿童关爱教育体系,积极发挥学校教育的主导作用;从家庭层面要树立正确的家庭教育理念,注重父母和家庭成员的言传身教、严爱相济;从社会层面要积极整合各界力量和资源,为留守儿童提供更为人性化的关心和帮助。只有学校、家庭、社会三方面的密切合作,才能尽量减少留守儿童的数量,进一步推进朝鲜族基础教育的特色化办学途径,使学校教育真正成为承继民族传统文化的重要阵地。     

Exploring the Personal and Environmental Factors Related to Length of Stay in Assisted Living

This study explored to what extent personal and environmental factors, as defined by the ecological model of aging, help us to understand length of stay in assisted living (AL). A convenience sample (N = 218) of administrative records of AL residents admitted between the years 2006 and 2011 was collected and included AL residents' demographic and healthcare information as well as dates of admission and discharge. Cox regression was used to determine which personal and environmental factors influenced length of stay in three AL programs. Number of medical diagnoses, level of care score, and facility were found to be significant predictors of length of stay. The analyses identified a median survival time of 32 months as well as critical periods for discharge from AL. Implications for future research and social work practice are presented.     

由《世说新语》论“世说体”小说发展特征

《世说新语》是志人小说的典范,自问世以来广受文人喜爱,并由此繁衍出一系列“世说体”小说作品.这类小说有其自身的发展脉络和规律,具有许多共同特征,“世说体”小说一般篇幅短小精悍,体例结构分门别类;小说人物基本真实,内容以轶闻琐事、妙言短语为主;小说叙事语言精练形象,言约旨丰.     

旅游度假村温泉泡池规格探究

经济高速增长背景下,温泉旅游市场追求泡池的大型化,虽满足了当前旅游者的需求,但不利于资源的可持续利用。以原汤洗浴及温泉交流作概念对应进而构筑等量关系,通过对等式的求解,得出既能保证原汤洗浴又能节省温泉资源的技术指标,最终给出温泉泡池的合理尺寸及提出总边长概念。     

吴起变法别析

本文运用文献资料和考古资料,确立了吴起变法的年限,或为十年,或为六年;论证了韩非所言：“楚不用吴起而削乱,泰行商君而富强”以及秦国攻灭了楚国,都不足以说明吴起变法失败。从而得出吴起变法成功的结论。     

全球价值链视角下中国钢铁产能过剩形成机制

国际分工背景下,提升产业价值链地位,破解低端锁定困境,既是化解过剩产能的出发点,也是落脚点。从国内制造业价值链、产业全球价值链及贸易结构等宏观层面,探究中国钢铁产业价值链低端锁定下的产能过剩形成机制,并聚焦于国际大型钢企,挖掘其微观原因。研究表明:钢铁产业处于中国制造业价值链近乎底部的位置,虽然增值能力总体有所增强,产业链条不断延伸,但与发达国家相比仍存在较大差距;在制造业价值链与钢铁产业全球价值链中存在的“微笑曲线”表明,中国钢铁产业的利润空间受到了国内外的双重挤压,产业升级压力巨大;国内议价、盈利能力普遍较差,下游业务联动不足及竞争优势缺乏是导致国内大型钢企的价值链低端锁定主要原因。目前而言,钢铁产业产能过剩与价值链低端锁定相互强化趋势明显。     

侧壁射流对突扩通道流动特性的影响

讨论了垂直于突扩通道主流方向的侧壁射流对壁面压力系数、传热系数及主回流区长度的影响．采用标准κ-ε双方程湍流模型，对侧壁射流突扩通道中的流场进行了数值模拟，计算结果表明，侧壁射流位置越靠近入口，主回流区长度越短，最大压力系数位置前移，其数值增大，局部表面传热系数也增大．根据计算结果，拟合出了当侧壁射流速度与突扩通道入口平均流速之比等于2．0时，主回流区长度与侧壁射流位置的关系式。     

Current Situation and Prospects for the Urbanization of Chinese Migrant Workers

本论文运用年龄结构—生命周期方法分析农民工就业状况对他们城镇化的影响。基于中国企业用工年轻化、农民工失业中年化的现状，论文首先运用年龄结构—生命周期模型进行了估算，指出为了全家城镇化，农民工夫妻婚后一般需要连续工作30年。在此基础上，论文构建了农民工工作寿命表，用以估算中国具备城镇化最低限度经济能力的农民工总量。考虑到未来企业用工年龄结构的变化，预计2006年时年龄在30岁以下的6900多万农民工及其家属都已具备在城镇定居的最起码的经济条件。

关键词: 农民工城镇化?农民工就业?年龄结构—生命周期模型?工作年限?中年失业

This article uses the age‐structure/life‐cycle method to analyze the impact of migrant workers’ employment on their urbanization. Since enterprises tend to employ younger workers and unemployed migrant workers tend to be middle‐aged, we first apply the age structure/life cycle model to carry out our estimations, pointing out that in order to complete the urbanization of their families, migrant worker couples usually have to work for thirty years consecutively after marriage. On this basis, the article constructs a working life table for migrant workers and uses it to estimate the total quantity of Chinese migrant workers who have the minimum economic capacity required for urbanization. Taking into consideration future changes in the age structure of enterprise employment, we estimate that over the sixty‐ nine million migrant workers who were under thirty years old in 2006, together with their families, would already be in possession of the minimum economic conditions for settling in urban areas.