震后应急物资配送的模糊定位-路径问题研究

从系统集成优化的角度研究震后应急物资配送的一种新模糊定位-路径问题(LRP),综合考虑救灾点所在地理位置和地形导致的应急车辆行驶时间的随机性、救灾点应急物资需求量的不确定性与应急物资配送的时间紧迫性,以应急物资总运达时间最短与总配送成本最小为目标,构建一个基于机会约束规划的多目标模糊LRP优化模型,并根据模型的特点设计了一种混合免疫遗传算法予以求解。最后,通过算例验证了本文方法能有效解决震后应急物资配送的模糊多目标LRP,实现了震后应急物流中心定位和应急车辆路径规划的联合决策。     

基于核和灰度的灰色异构数据代数运算法则及其应用

为解决灰色异构数据的建模问题,应用"核和灰度"对灰色异构数据代数运算法则及其性质展开研究。将灰信息表征为"核和灰度",通过"核"将灰色异构数据代数运算转换为实数之间代数运算,根据灰度不减公理确定运算结果之灰度,在此基础上构建灰色异构数据的代数运算法则,并将该法则应用于灰色异构数据预测模型的构建及空气质量指数(AQI)的预测。研究成果对丰富与完善灰色系统基础理论具有积极意义。     

污染减排、外部性与环境技术创新:来自省级环境专利的证据

基于污染外部性机制,推导出含有污染减排外部性的空间Tobit设定。利用中国31个省级环境专利数据,在控制技术外部性的情况下,分离出污染减排外部性对环境技术创新的影响。贝叶斯MCMC方法估计结果显示,污染减排对环境技术创新有显著的正的直接效应,而且还存在显著的负外部效应,从而污染减排的总效应为不显著的正影响,表明忽略污染减排外部性对环境技术创新有重要影响。进而探讨避免污染减排外部性的政策含义。     

基于混合蚁群算法的生产系统设施规划问题研究

设施规划问题主要研究生产设备的布局规划,从而减小厂区内的物料搬运成本。一个有效的设施规划有利于生产过程中整体运作效率的提高。随着市场竞争的日趋激烈,市场环境处于不断的变化之中,制造企业需不断对设施布局进行重新规划来适应不断变化的市场环境对产品需求量的影响,并达到降低成本的目的。这一问题便需要用多阶段设施规划（MFLP）的方法来解决。本文提出了一种改进的混和蚁群算法（HACO）来解决带有财务预算约束的多阶段设施规划问题,并将此方法与其他一些典型的启发式算法进行了对比分析。结果表明,本文提出的HACO算法是求解带有财务预算约束的MFLP问题的一种有效的方法。     

智能组合预测方法及其应用

由于具有能以任意精度逼近任意复杂非线性函数的优良性能,神经网络在灰色系统预测中得到了较大的应用。在已有的研究基础上,针对灰色神经网络进化时容易陷入局部最优,参数修正受阻的问题,建立基于遗传粒子群混合算法优化的新型灰色神经网络模型。首先将灰色神经网络进行数学建模,以便于优化算法的应用;其次,综合遗传算法与粒子群算法的优点,构造一种混合算法,运用混合算法对灰色神经网络进行优化;最后通过日本入华游客数量预测的算例研究,比较新型灰色神经网络与灰色神经网络、单一算法优化的灰色神经网络的预测精度。所得结果表明,混合算法优化的新灰色神经网络具有更好的预测性能,在社会经济领域有着广泛的应用前景。     

综合面试中的均衡分组方法

本文针对综合面试中的分组问题,首先分析了分组对综合面试结果的影响,提出了均衡分组的思想;在此基础上,提出了综合面试中的均衡分组方法,该方法构建了双目标优化模型,并开发了一个求解问题的遗传算法,该算法还可以解决一类分组问题;最后,给出算例说明方法的应用及可行性。     

Evaluation of incomplete multiple diagnostic tests,with an application in the colon cancer family registry study

Accurate diagnosis of a molecularly defined subtype of cancer is often an important step toward its effective control and treatment. For the diagnosis of some subtypes of a cancer, a gold standard with perfect sensitivity and specificity may be unavailable. In those scenarios, tumor subtype status is commonly measured by multiple imperfect diagnostic markers. Additionally, in many such studies, some subjects are only measured by a subset of diagnostic tests and the missing probabilities may depend on the unknown disease status. In this paper, we present statistical methods based on the EM algorithm to evaluate incomplete multiple imperfect diagnostic tests under a missing at random assumption and one missing not at random scenario. We apply the proposed methods to a real data set from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) colon cancer family registry on diagnosing microsatellite instability for hereditary non-polyposis colorectal cancer to estimate diagnostic accuracy parameters (i.e. sensitivities and specificities), prevalence, and potential differential missing probabilities for 11 biomarker tests. Simulations are also conducted to evaluate the small-sample performance of our methods.     

Multidimensional item response theory models for dichotomous data in customer satisfaction evaluation

In this paper, multidimensional item response theory models for dichotomous data, developed in the fields of psychometrics and ability assessment, are discussed in connection with the problem of evaluating customer satisfaction. These models allow us to take into account latent constructs at various degrees of complexity and provide interesting new perspectives for services quality assessment. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques are considered for estimation. An application to a real data set is also presented.     

Parameter estimation and prediction of order statistics for the Burr Type XII distribution with Type II censoring

This article deals with the statistical inference and prediction on Burr Type XII parameters based on Type II censored sample. It is observed that the maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) cannot be obtained in closed form. We use the expectation-maximization algorithm to compute the MLEs. We also obtain the Bayes estimators under symmetric and asymmetric loss functions such as squared error and Linex By applying Lindley's approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. Further, MCMC samples are used to calculate the highest posterior density credible intervals. Monte Carlo simulation study and two real-life data-sets are presented to illustrate all of the methods developed here. Furthermore, we obtain a prediction of future order statistics based on the observed ordered because of its important application in different fields such as medical and engineering sciences. A numerical example carried out to illustrate the procedures obtained for prediction of future order statistics.     

Bayesian Inference for the Jump-Diffusion Model with M Jumps

In this article, we propose a new class of models—jump-diffusion models with M jumps (JD(M)J). These structures generalize the discretized arithmetic Brownian motion (for logarithmic rates of return) and the Bernoulli jump-diffusion model. The aim of this article is to present Bayesian tools for estimation and comparison of JD(M)J models. Presented methodology is illustrated with two empirical studies, employing both simulated and real-world data (the S&P100 Index).