RAROC原则下的企业客户赊销风险管理机制研究

本文引入RAROC方法对企业客户赊销风险进行分析,计算经企业赊销风险调整后的收益以及企业为防备非预期损失导致破产或自身信用的转移而必须的”风险资本”,进而计算RAROC(经风险调整后的资本收益)使企业赊销产生的收益与所承受风险匹配。这不仅使企业能够在整体上控制赊销风险,正确处理赊销与业务发展之间的均衡关系,完善企业的风险管理目标,而且还可用于单笔赊销业务的评估以及对企业信用管理部门、销售人员等的业绩考核。     

When Does Information about Probability Count in Choices Under Risk?

The question addressed in the present research is whether in naturalistic risky decision environments people are sensitive to information about the probability parameter. In Study 1, we showed that in naturalistic scenarios participants generally revealed little interest in obtaining information about the outcomes and probabilities. Moreover, participants asked fewer questions about probabilities for scenarios containing moral considerations. In Study 2, it was shown that, when supplied with information on probabilities, people could be sensitive to this information. This sensitivity depends on two factors. People were less sensitive to probabilities in scenarios perceived as containing ethical considerations. People were also less sensitive to probabilities when they were faced with a single-choice situation than when they were faced with a series of lotteries with different probabilities. This can be accounted for in terms of the evaluability principle.     

不当审讯:功能分析与机理阐释--兼论我国刑事审讯制度的改革走向

不当审讯的直接效果是获得犯罪嫌疑人对案件事实的承认,但容易导致冤案的发生。侦查实践中,不当审讯的存在,有其特定时间和空间条件,侦查机关的目标考核和较高的刑事拘留、逮捕的证明标准是其体制根源与制度症结。治理不当审讯,应对不同强制措施之下的审讯时空进行严格限制,降低刑事拘留、逮捕的证明标准,对侦查机关的目标考核制度进行结构性调整。     

Place, Culture, and the Social Amplification of Risk

This article investigates the role of culture in the social production of risks and risk communication surrounding industrial development in a region located at a rural-urban interface. A case study examined a public consultation that was undertaken to inform local residents about an eco-industrial development proposal being planned near Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The research employed the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) to examine the relationships among culture, place, and socially constructed risk. A total of 44 in-depth, semi-structured interviews were carried out with 33 landowners (farmers, acreage owners), public officials (municipal politicians, administrators), journalists, and industry representatives. Analysis revealed that risk communication occurred in relation to situated experiences of place that were based on conflicting cultural worldviews. The research shows that place is a useful component of the SARF, providing a spatial explanation for why some people amplify, and others attenuate, risks in locally contentious environmental debates.     

Quantifying Potential Health Impacts of Cadmium in Cigarettes on Smoker Risk of Lung Cancer: A Portfolio-of-Mechanisms Approach

This article introduces an approach to estimating the uncertain potential effects on lung cancer risk of removing a particular constituent, cadmium (Cd), from cigarette smoke, given the useful but incomplete scientific information available about its modes of action. The approach considers normal cell proliferation; DNA repair inhibition in normal cells affected by initiating events; proliferation, promotion, and progression of initiated cells; and death or sparing of initiated and malignant cells as they are further transformed to become fully tumorigenic. Rather than estimating unmeasured model parameters by curve fitting to epidemiological or animal experimental tumor data, we attempt rough estimates of parameters based on their biological interpretations and comparison to corresponding genetic polymorphism data. The resulting parameter estimates are admittedly uncertain and approximate, but they suggest a portfolio approach to estimating impacts of removing Cd that gives usefully robust conclusions. This approach views Cd as creating a portfolio of uncertain health impacts that can be expressed as biologically independent relative risk factors having clear mechanistic interpretations. Because Cd can act through many distinct biological mechanisms, it appears likely (subjective probability greater than 40%) that removing Cd from cigarette smoke would reduce smoker risks of lung cancer by at least 10%, although it is possible (consistent with what is known) that the true effect could be much larger or smaller. Conservative estimates and assumptions made in this calculation suggest that the true impact could be greater for some smokers. This conclusion appears to be robust to many scientific uncertainties about Cd and smoking effects.     

现代风险环境中本体性安全的建立——吉登斯风险社会理论探索

现代性风险环境下,个体并不是一蹶不振,而是积极发挥主观能动性应对现代社会中的种种风险.文章在探索吉登斯风险社会理论的基础上就个体在意识层面上应对现代性风险的主要表现作了一些分析,认为它们实际上也是为了满足个体建立自己本体性安全的需要,从而为更好地拓展未来打好基础.     

榆神煤炭液化项目融资风险管理

榆神煤炭液化项目是在加快西部开发战略思想的指导下策划的一个特大型重化工基地项目,是缓解我国石油供需矛盾的重要途径。该项目投资额巨大,时间跨度长,所涉及的融资风险较多。本文主要通过对融资风险的定性和定量分析,风险识别、量化和评价,确定风险等级,并结合科学的风险管理方法,有针对性地对本项目的主要融资风险进行有效地控制,应用合理的防范措施,实现融资目标。     

浅析授信客户财务报表舞弊之甄别

授信客户管理是银行防范信贷风险不可或缺的有效手段,也是银行对企业信用评估的重要指标.近年来,国内、国外都存在着一些企业、特别是知名企业利用财务报表造假,来骗取银行信贷资金,造成了银行亏损或大量的不良资产.本文通过对授信客户财务报表舞弊的环境与动机的分析入手,对公司财务报表的舞弊手段进行了深入探讨与研究,并提出了针对授信客户财务虚假报表的甄别方法与对策.     

运用汇率变动分析企业的资产负债和风险管理

在当前我国商品供需和资本流动同国际市场的关系日益密切的情况下,很多企业的资产负债管理都可能遇到汇率波动风险,影响资产和负债的现时价值。对此,可采取多种汇率变动风险管理对策。     

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Assessment of the Thyroid Cancer Risk Related to Chernobyl Fallout in Eastern France

The increase in the thyroid cancer incidence in France observed over the last 20 years has raised public concern about its association with the 1986 nuclear power plant accident at Chernobyl. At the request of French authorities, a first study sought to quantify the possible risk of thyroid cancer associated with the Chernobyl fallout in France. This study suffered from two limitations. The first involved the lack of knowledge of spontaneous thyroid cancer incidence rates (in the absence of exposure), which was especially necessary to take their trends into account for projections over time; the second was the failure to consider the uncertainties. The aim of this article is to enhance the initial thyroid cancer risk assessment for the period 1991-2007 in the area of France most exposed to the fallout (i.e., eastern France) and thereby mitigate these limitations. We consider the changes over time in the incidence of spontaneous thyroid cancer and conduct both uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The number of spontaneous thyroid cancers was estimated from French cancer registries on the basis of two scenarios: one with a constant incidence, the other using the trend observed. Thyroid doses were estimated from all available data about contamination in France from Chernobyl fallout. Results from a 1995 pooled analysis published by Ron et al. were used to determine the dose-response relation. Depending on the scenario, the number of spontaneous thyroid cancer cases ranges from 894 (90% CI: 869-920) to 1,716 (90% CI: 1,691-1,741). The number of excess thyroid cancer cases predicted ranges from 5 (90% UI: 1-15) to 63 (90% UI: 12-180). All of the assumptions underlying the thyroid cancer risk assessment are discussed.