关于现代企业储备人才的培养研究——黄商特训：让员工快速成长

现代企业的竞争是企业服务的竞争、企业内涵的竞争、企业文化的竞争，归根结底是企业人才的竞争。走规模经济、走文化经济是我国企业发展的方向。黄商人坚持以市场为导向，专注于商业连锁发展，为至今还处在瓶颈期的企业提供了较好的借鉴作用，其具有特色的员工培训模式给现代企业也提供了一定的参考作用。     

Estimation of firm-specific technological bias,technical change and total factor productivity growth: a dual approach

This paper deals with modeling firm-specific technical change (TC), and technological biases (inputs and scale) in estimating total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Several dual parametric econometric models are used for this purpose. We examine robustness of TFP growth and TC among competing models. These models include the traditional time trend (TT) model and the general index (GI) model. The TT and the GI models are generalized to accommodate firm-specific TC and technological bias (in inputs and output). Both nested and non-nested tests are used to select the appropriate models. Firm-level panel data from the Japanese chemical industry during 1968- 1987 is used as an application.     

Using power transformations when approximating quantiles

Estimators are obtained tor quantiles of survival distributions. This is accomplished by approximating Lritr distribution of the transtorrneri data, where the transformation used is that of Box and Cox (1964). The normal approximation as in Box and Cox and, in addition, the extreme value approximation are considered. More generally, to use the methods given, the approximating distribution must come from a location-scale family. For some commonly used survival random variables T the performance of the above approximations are evaluated in terms of the ratio of the true quantiles of T to the estimated one, in the long run. This performance is also evaluated for lower quantiles using simulated lognormai, Weibull and gamma data. Several examples are given to illustrate the methodology herein, including one with actual data.     

关于农民专业合作经济组织发展问题

研究了农民专业合作经济组织发挥组织功能、中介功能、服务功能、教育功能和改革功能具有的重要意义以及在现实中存在的政府部门重视不够、规范化程度低和风险共担等问题;阐述了在农民专业合作发展中应遵循的原则,同时给出了推进其发展的对策是明确责任、完善政策和强化服务等措施。     

当前西方另类媒体研究的兴起与走向

针对当下西方主流商业媒体市场垄断日益加剧而导致民主传播赤字的现实,另类媒体开始兴起,其主张非商业化运作且代表普通民众声音,并在全球零星分布的传播实践中逐渐形成“哪里都有我们”的传播态势.对这类媒体的理论研究于20世纪80年代起步,并于最近十年吸引了越来越多专家学者的注意.在对近25年来西方另类媒体研究的最新理论成果的梳理中,能够较为深入地分析另类媒体兴起的媒介环境与实践诉求,在整合另类媒体理论研究的五种切入视角及其利弊的分析基础上,也能够看到另类媒体作为具有双重民主诉求的“媒介权力”存在的现实意义.今后另类媒体研究的重心应从解析媒介权力过程人手,围绕“如何重建传播公地”这一核心问题深入展开.     

Failure Probability Under Parameter Uncertainty

In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location‐scale families (including the log‐normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.     

Nonparametric tests for scale shift at an unknown time point

A class of linear rank tests is suggested for testing a shift in scale at an unknown time point in a sequence of independent observations. The tests,based on inverse normal scores and on ordered exponential scores,are shown to be asymptotically as efficient as their distribution-oriented competitors. Critical values and powers for these two rank tests are also discussed.     

A modified subset selection formulation with special reference to one-way and two-way layout experiments

The usual formulation of subset selection due to Gupta (1956) requires a minimum guaranteed probability of a correct selection. The modified formulation of the present paper includes an additional requirement that the expected number of the nonbest populations be bounded above by a specified constant when the best and the next best populations are ‘sufficiently’ apart. A class of procedures is defined and the determination of the minimum sample size required is discussed. The specific problems discussed for normal populations include selection in terms of means and variances, and selection in terms of treatment effects in a two-way layout.     

On the asymptotic distribution of cramer-von mises one-sample test statistics under an alternative

The asymptotic normality of the Cramer-von Mises one-sample test statistic and one of its variants under an alternative cdf is demonstrated. The derivation herein is unique in that it does not require knowledge of the theory of weak convergence of probability measures defined on metrized function spaces, and thus is accessible to a broader class of students and practitioners.