Procedures for improving the mle for ordered binomial parameters

The problem is that of estimating the probabilities of m independent binomial random variables when their probabilities are known to be nondecreasing and the loss function is squared error. In the cases where the m.l.e. is inadmissible (essentially when the total number of trials is 7 or more) we present a method for modifying the m.l.e. to get a better estimator. The method requires a series of changes. At each step we alter the action taken by the m.l.e. on each of three, appropriately chosen, points in the sample space.     

A class of Shrunken estimators for normal mean

This paper presents a class of estimators for the mean of a normal population and determines the conditions on characterizing scalars under which the class of estimators uniformly dominates over the conventional sample mean according to the mean-square-error criterion.     

中、美两国在20世纪50～70年代中学课程改革的比较研究

中美两国在 2 0世纪的 5 0～ 70年代间 ,对中学课程进行了频繁的改革 ,较集中的有三次 ,这些改革是第二次世界大战后很有代表性和特色的中学课程改革。分析研究中美两国这一时期课程改革的原因、理论依据、具体内容 ,在此基础上进行简要比较 ;总结两国课程改革的经验教训 ,可以清楚地看到 :中学课程的结构是随着社会发展和教育发展而不断变革的 ;课程改革与教育、社会的发展是互相作用的 ;课程改革是从教育实践中产生的一种适应人和社会发展的需要 ,有其自身的客观性基础。     

Comparing migrants to non-migrants: The case of Dutch migration to New Zealand

We analyse post-war Dutch migration to New Zealand. We document that history, reflect on analytical and econometric modelling and then combine a sample of Dutch migrants in New Zealand with a representative sample of Dutch in The Netherlands to estimate wage equations and the determinants of the migration decision. We use the results for ex post evaluation of the migration decision.Joop Hartog is Fellow of IZA (Bonn), CESifo (München), AIAS and Tinbergen Institute (Amsterdam). Work on this project was begun when Hartog was Erskine Visitor at the University of Canterbury, Christchurch New Zealand. Rainer Winkelmann is Fellow of CEPR and IZA (Bonn). This paper is produced as part of a CEPR research programme on European Migration from Economic Analysis to Policy Response, supported by a grant from the Commission of the European Communities under its Human Capital and Mobility Programme (no. ERBCHRXCT940515).It was presented at the European Society for Population Economics meetings in Bonn, June 2000. We gratefully acknowledge comments by Justin Lee Tobias, Jacques Poot, Ed Vytlacil, an anonymous referee and Paul Schultz. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

衡阳市中等职业教育：问题与对策

中等职业教育是我国教育体系的重要组成部分,是培养用得上、留得住、短平快式人才的重要渠道。衡阳市中等职业教育发展存在条块分割、管理交叉、办学各成体系;学校自身发展失衡,招生规模出现"两级"分化;专业设置重复,办学与市场需求联系不紧,中等职业学校吸引力不强;政府后续投入严重不足,学校必要的实习、实验设备短缺;教学设备不足,技术含量低等问题,只有按照社会主义市场经济规律办事,政府、学校、社会形成合力,才能实现中等职业教育可持续性发展。     

传统德治主义的几点思考

德治的理念孕育于夏商,诞生在西周初年.春秋战国时期传到民间后,经过儒家学派的阐释和发展,演变成为一种系统的政治理论.汉武帝罢黜百家、独尊儒术,传统德治主义重又回到官方哲学的地位上,遂成为后世封建政治的指导思想之一.这样一个发展演变过程,事实上成为古代社会政治文明进步的标尺之一.德治本是一种治国方法,后来拓展到社会职司的本质层次上.以德治国要求统治阶级明德慎罚,教化先行;要求他们以身作则,不懈于治;要求他们勤劳民事,以民为本,然而这些要求都是从主体方面提出来的.被治理对象--广大人民群众在传统德治主义中的主动地位是不存在的.缺乏来自于下层人民群众的参与,没有一个有力的法律监督机制做保障,这是传统德治主义实践失败的根本原因之所在.     

近五年陕西省中小学教师培训多元化需求分析调查及解决策略研究

通过对自2009年以来近五年我国中小学教师专业培训需求研究成果进行分析和整理,分别从培训需求政策、培训动机需求、课程需求、模式需求等方面进行分析,最后提出解决培训中出现的问题和策略,旨在为教育行政部门提供可借鉴的参考。     

抗战胜利之初中国教育现代化的困顿——以江苏的中等教育复员为例

抗战胜利后的中等教育复员,在推行之初即陷入困境,当局精心筹划的国立中学"下放"、后方学校内迁、收复区教育重建等,无不举步维艰.其中除战争创伤显形化的教育资源短缺这一客观制约因素外,内战的阴影及其对教育发展空间的挤压是主要原因.     

苏北中学教师职业倦怠的成因探析

教师职业倦怠的存在使个人、家庭、组织与社会付出了极大的代价。通过已知的材料和调查了解得出结论：苏北中学教师的职业倦怠程度并不严重,但仍有一定比率的教师经历严重的倦怠。形成苏北中学教师职业倦怠的原因是多方面的,其核心原因主要有社会环境、职业特征、教学情境和自身人格因素等。有效防治教师职业倦怠刻不容缓。     

Resolving conflicting demands on evaluation: A test demonstration of videotex for farmers

Evaluating an innovation for federal, state, and local policymakers and program managers alike entails conflicting demands on the evaluation study. Policymakers at federal, state, and local levels are best assisted by impact evaluations, whereas state and local program managers are best assisted by process evaluations. In-house evaluators often have an advantage in conducting process evaluations; external evaluators generally have an advantage in conducting impact evaluations. A cost-effective approach may be to combine in-house process evaluation and external impact evaluation. This dual approach was found to reduce conflicting demands on the evaluation of an experimental videotex system for agricultural producers.