Bayesian inference for dynamic social network data

We consider a continuous-time model for the evolution of social networks. A social network is here conceived as a (di-) graph on a set of vertices, representing actors, and the changes of interest are creation and disappearance over time of (arcs) edges in the graph. Hence we model a collection of random edge indicators that are not, in general, independent. We explicitly model the interdependencies between edge indicators that arise from interaction between social entities. A Markov chain is defined in terms of an embedded chain with holding times and transition probabilities. Data are observed at fixed points in time and hence we are not able to observe the embedded chain directly. Introducing a prior distribution for the parameters we may implement an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posterior distribution of the parameters by simulating the evolution of the embedded process between observations.     

A sequential design for a clinical trial with a linear prognostic factor

We study a randomized adaptive design to assign one of the L$L$ treatments to patients who arrive sequentially by means of an urn model. At each stage n$n$, a reward is distributed between treatments. The treatment applied is rewarded according to its response, 0?_Yn?1$0?Y_n?1$, and 1-_Yn$1-Y_n$ is distributed among the other treatments according to their performance until stage n-1$n-1$. Patients can be classified in K+1$K+1$ levels and we assume that the effect of this level in the response to the treatments is linear. We study the asymptotic behavior of the design when the ordinary least square estimators are used as a measure of performance until stage n-1$n-1$.     

Considerations on group-wise identical designs for linear mixed models

We consider a general class of mixed models, where the individual parameter vector is composed of a linear function of the population parameter vector plus an individual random effects vector. The linear function can vary for the different individuals. We show that the search for optimal designs for the estimation of the population parameter vector can be restricted to the class of group-wise identical designs, i.e., for each of the groups defined by the different linear functions only one individual elementary design has to be optimized. A way to apply the result to non-linear mixed models is described.     

铅蓄电池正极材料的X射线衍射分析

本文用X射线衍射法对铅蓄电池正极活性材料二氧化铅进行了结构分析。结果表明:正极的二氧化铅同时存在二种不同的晶体结构。正方晶系的β—PbO_2主要分布在电极表面,针方晶系的α—PbO_2则分布在电极内部。如果将块状电极碾磨测量,α—PbO_2与β—PbO_2的含量几乎是相等的。     

PES-C,(PP/Bis-T)PES的次级松驰与转变

描述了酚酞型聚芳醚砜(PES-C)的次级松驰和转变与其结构的关系.TBA和动态力学实验结果表明:PES-C及其共聚物(PP/Bis-T)PES分别在0～50℃和-100℃附近呈现出两个次级松驰峰;双酚T单元的引入导致了PES-C在0～50℃之间的次级松驰位置改变.证实了Cardo侧基的存在对-100℃的次级松驰有较大的贡献.     

INSIGHTS ON SERVICE SYSTEM DESIGN FROM A NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO ERLANG'S DELAY FORMULA

We show how a simple normal approximation to Erlang's delay formula can be used to analyze capacity and staffing problems in service systems that can be modeled as M/M/s queues. The numbers of servers, s, needed in an M/M/s queueing system to assure a probability of delay of, at most, p can be well approximated by s ≅ p + z_***I-p+, where z_1-p, is the (1 - p)th percentile of the standard normal distribution and ρ, the presented load on the system, is the ratio of Λ, the customer arrival rate, to μ, the service rate. We examine the accuracy of this approximation over a set of parameters typical of service operations ranging from police patrol, through telemarketing to automatic teller machines, and we demonstrate that it tends to slightly underestimate the number of servers actually needed to hit the delay probability target—adding one server to the number suggested by the above formula typically gives the exact result. More importantly, the structure of the approximation promotes operational insight by explicitly linking the number of servers with server utilization and the customer service level. Using a scenario based on an actual teleservicing operation, we show how operations managers and designers can quickly obtain insights about the trade-offs between system size, system utilization and customer service. We argue that this little used approach deserves a prominent role in the operations analyst's and operations manager's toolbags.     

Book Reviews

Books reviewed:
David Griffiths, W. Douglas Stirling, and K. Laurence Weldon, Understanding Data: Principles and Practice of Statistics
Ingwer Borg and Patrick Groenen, Modern Multidimensional Scaling: Theory and Applications
Jeffrey H. Dorfman, Bayesian Economics Through Numerical Methods: A Guide to Econometrics and Decision-making with Prior Information
Marek Musiela and Marek Rutkowski, Martingale Methods in Financial Modelling: Theory and Applications
Aad W. van der Vaart and Jon A. Wellner, Weak Convergence and Empirical Processes     

伦敦语言学派的兴起及其流变

从理论语言学史看,伦敦学派经历了从马林诺夫斯基人类语言学到弗斯语境语言学,再到韩礼德系统功能语言学的发展。后现代哲学使哲学的终极性基础,亦即使认识主客观对象的途径和方法得到根本的转换(转换成符号),是西方哲学中最重要的思想事件,即所谓"语言学转向",我们无妨说,韩礼德80年代后对他的系统功能语言学的推进,是以符号中介论为其深层理论背景的,或者说与"语言学转向"是一致的。     

智能控制系统网络化研究

通过新型网络接口芯片PS2000A实现MCU监控系统网络化,实现了真正意义上的远距离监控。 使MCU监控系统网络化技术的实施取材方便,电路简捷。     

中专物理教学路在何方

中专物理教学的困境有其客观的原因,只有从教学内容和教学对象两方面去考虑,充分地了解和应用服务意识,才能够摸索出一条走出困境的路。