张澍西北竹枝词民俗文化价值论略

张澍是清代竹枝词发展史上重要的作家,也是唯一一位既创作西南竹枝词,又创作西北竹枝词的诗人。他以西北人的眼光来审视西北,对西北地区的文化习俗进行了历史性扫描,勾画出了丰富多彩的社会民俗画面,涵盖了山川风物、民间文学、饮食习俗和宗教信仰等多个领域,反映了西北少数民族独特的习俗和生活方式,形成一幅包罗万象的清代西北民族风情画卷,多角度、全方位地展现了西北地区独特的地域精神和原生态的民俗文化,具有很高的思想史、民族史和民俗学价值。     

元代雕塑家钩沉

本文从古籍中搜罗了１６位未被《中国美术辞典》（沈柔坚主编）收载的元代雕塑家的资料，为中国雕塑史的研究做了史料的发掘工作     

On evaluating how well a biomarker can predict treatment response with survival data

One of the objectives of personalized medicine is to take treatment decisions based on a biomarker measurement. Therefore, it is often interesting to evaluate how well a biomarker can predict the response to a treatment. To do so, a popular methodology consists of using a regression model and testing for an interaction between treatment assignment and biomarker. However, the existence of an interaction is not sufficient for a biomarker to be predictive. It is only necessary. Hence, the use of the marker‐by‐treatment predictiveness curve has been recommended. In addition to evaluate how well a single continuous biomarker predicts treatment response, it can further help to define an optimal threshold. This curve displays the risk of a binary outcome as a function of the quantiles of the biomarker, for each treatment group. Methods that assume a binary outcome or rely on a proportional hazard model for a time‐to‐event outcome have been proposed to estimate this curve. In this work, we propose some extensions for censored data. They rely on a time‐dependent logistic model, and we propose to estimate this model via inverse probability of censoring weighting. We present simulations results and three applications to prostate cancer, liver cirrhosis, and lung cancer data. They suggest that a large number of events need to be observed to define a threshold with sufficient accuracy for clinical usefulness. They also illustrate that when the treatment effect varies with the time horizon which defines the outcome, then the optimal threshold also depends on this time horizon.     

贸易开放对中国水环境污染影响的实证研究

文章基于2004-2013年中国31个省市的面板数据,采用动态面板模型和差分GMM估计方法,分别选取化学需氧量排放和氨氮排放作为水环境污染的有机污染物和无机污染物的排放指标,对贸易开放的结构效应引致的中国水环境污染排放进行了实证研究.研究结果表明,经济增长的规模和技术效应是影响水环境污染排放的主要因素,直接结构效应对中国水污染排放的影响不显著,贸易开放的结构效应也在一定程度上加剧了中国水环境污染的排放.通过引入贸易开放的相关交叉项进一步对决定贸易结构效应的比较优势来源进行识别,结果发现,对于中国水环境污染排放并不存在所谓的“污染天堂效应”和“要素禀赋效应”.贸易的结构效应会导致西部经济欠发达地区的水污染排放降低,而对中东部经济相对发达地区,贸易的结构效应会引致其水污染排放量的增大和排放强度的加剧.     

基于序化机理的稳健型股票价值投资决策——一个研究框架

面对资本市场风险加剧的现实背景,以"公司经营业绩与股票市场业绩一致趋优"为稳健型投资的核心要素,立足于区间数据表示、会计信息度量两个关键要素,开展稳健型股票价值投资的多准则决策建模研究。面向稳健型投资决策目标,提出满足"稳健性""局部性""全局性"3个特性的序化机理,围绕关键特征选择、特征评价、全序化建模的主体脉络建立系统性多准则决策方法,进而构建"稳健型股票价值投资决策"的研究框架。     

Exploring Parameter Relations for Multi‐Stage Models in Stage‐Wise Constant and Time Dependent Hazard Rates

Single cohort stage‐frequency data are considered when assessing the stage reached by individuals through destructive sampling. For this type of data, when all hazard rates are assumed constant and equal, Laplace transform methods have been applied in the past to estimate the parameters in each stage‐duration distribution and the overall hazard rates. If hazard rates are not all equal, estimating stage‐duration parameters using Laplace transform methods becomes complex. In this paper, two new models are proposed to estimate stage‐dependent maturation parameters using Laplace transform methods where non‐trivial hazard rates apply. The first model encompasses hazard rates that are constant within each stage but vary between stages. The second model encompasses time‐dependent hazard rates within stages. Moreover, this paper introduces a method for estimating the hazard rate in each stage for the stage‐wise constant hazard rates model. This work presents methods that could be used in specific types of laboratory studies, but the main motivation is to explore the relationships between stage maturation parameters that, in future work, could be exploited in applying Bayesian approaches. The application of the methodology in each model is evaluated using simulated data in order to illustrate the structure of these models.     

Empirical likelihood based detection procedure for change point in mean residual life functions under random censorship

The mean residual life (MRL) function is one of the basic parameters of interest in survival analysis that describes the expected remaining time of an individual after a certain age. The study of changes in the MRL function is practical and interesting because it may help us to identify some factors such as age and gender that may influence the remaining lifetimes of patients after receiving a certain surgery. In this paper, we propose a detection procedure based on the empirical likelihood for the changes in MRL functions with right censored data. Two real examples are also given: Veterans' administration lung cancer study and Stanford heart transplant to illustrate the detecting procedure. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多元词组和数据流聚类的热点话题动态发现

本文主要通过改进的TF-IDF算法和多元词组动态构建来选择特征关键词,并利用CluStream数据流聚类方法,实现文本主题的动态发现.实验表明,该方法可以较好地发现海量文本信息中不断变化的主题信息,从而达到推荐关联主题、动态监测舆情等目的.     

基于高斯图的截面数据精确分段及重构

针对反求工程中截面重构时由于分段点提取不精确造成重构结果不理想的问题,提出一种分段点精确提取方 法。基于截面数据的法向量信息构建高斯图,将分段点确定在一个区间内,根据区间端点将截面数据分为不同的特征 段;优先重构直线特征,再根据约束重构自由特征,并在自由特征重构过程中建立动态搜索模型,用二次插值法动态搜索 精确分段点。实验表明该方法提高了分段点的提取精度和截面重构的精度,重构的结果很好地还原了产品模型的初始 设计意图。     

Linear Increments with Non‐monotone Missing Data and Measurement Error

Linear increments (LI) are used to analyse repeated outcome data with missing values. Previously, two LI methods have been proposed, one allowing non‐monotone missingness but not independent measurement error and one allowing independent measurement error but only monotone missingness. In both, it was suggested that the expected increment could depend on current outcome. We show that LI can allow non‐monotone missingness and either independent measurement error of unknown variance or dependence of expected increment on current outcome but not both. A popular alternative to LI is a multivariate normal model ignoring the missingness pattern. This gives consistent estimation when data are normally distributed and missing at random (MAR). We clarify the relation between MAR and the assumptions of LI and show that for continuous outcomes multivariate normal estimators are also consistent under (non‐MAR and non‐normal) assumptions not much stronger than those of LI. Moreover, when missingness is non‐monotone, they are typically more efficient.