The Copula Information Criteria

We derive two types of Akaike information criterion (AIC)‐like model‐selection formulae for the semiparametric pseudo‐maximum likelihood procedure. We first adapt the arguments leading to the original AIC formula, related to empirical estimation of a certain Kullback–Leibler information distance. This gives a significantly different formula compared with the AIC, which we name the copula information criterion. However, we show that such a model‐selection procedure cannot exist for copula models with densities that grow very fast near the edge of the unit cube. This problem affects most popular copula models. We then derive what we call the cross‐validation copula information criterion, which exists under weak conditions and is a first‐order approximation to exact cross validation. This formula is very similar to the standard AIC formula but has slightly different motivation. A brief illustration with real data is given.     

Visual Mao Zedong and new world order

This study explores the ideological contentions about peace behind the contrasting projections of Mao Zedong’s images, especially his standard portraits, and photos of him and Western leaders (including those of the Soviet Union directly or indirectly). The analyses focus on the complicated spectatorship of Mao Zedong’s images in the international activisms that were intended to change the political power structure of the world. This involves the contradictory visualisations from both the socialist and capitalist ideologies. From Nixon’s visits to Mao Zedong and Gorbachev’s visit to the Portrait of Mao Zedong in the 1989 student movement, the concepts of nationalism and internationalism, new world order, and Mao Zedong’s theories of contradiction and three worlds are examined to better understand the visual realities of ‘peaceful evolution’.     

汉语语序灵活性的语用考察

汉语的语序既有规约性,又有灵活性,而且体现在语义、语法、语用三个平面中。从语用平面对汉语语序的灵活性进行考察,从可以语境、指示词语、会话含义、预设、言语行为和会话结构六个方面。     

Estimation of Polygons and Areas

Abstract.  In forestry the problem of estimating areas is central. This paper addresses area estimation through fitting of a polygon to observed coordinate data. Coordinates of corners and points along the sides of a simple closed polygon are measured with independent random errors. This paper focuses on procedures to adjust the coordinates for estimation of the polygon and its area. Different new techniques that consider different amounts of prior information are described and compared. The different techniques use restricted least squares, maximum likelihood and the expectation maximization algorithm. In a simulation study it is shown that the root mean square errors of the estimates are decreased when coordinates are adjusted before estimation. Minor further improvement is achieved by using prior information about the order and the distribution of the points along the sides of the polygon. This paper has its origin in forestry but there are also other applications.     

教育失序问题的文化救治（上）

教育发展、人的自由而全面的发展与教育秩序的矛盾．是人们在现代社会生活中所必然遇到的一个基本问题。这在教育的现代转型中表现得尤为明显。虽然解答这一问题的根本思路是加强教育制度建设，但由于文化有其特殊的公共性，因而也是解答现代社会教育发展、人的自由而全面发展与教育秩序问题的一条重要理路。在现代教育制度的架构下，通过帮助人们获得公共价值观、起码共识和基本共同感，文化构成现代社会教育发展、人的自由而全面发展不可或缺的重要机制。     

Child Support Obligations and Low‐Income Fathers

Using the 1994–1998 waves of the Current Population Survey—Child Support Supplement (N =5,387), the aims of this study are to document child support obligation rates of nonresident fathers, to examine the effect of the obligation rate on child support compliance, and to calculate the trade‐off between fathers’ financial responsibility and children's well‐being, paying particular attention to low‐income fathers. The results indicate that low‐income fathers have high child support obligation rates, which significantly reduce their child support compliance. Although lowering the obligation rate for these fathers may improve their compliance, it does not fully offset the lowered obligation amounts and leads to a 30% net payment loss for welfare mothers and a 43% loss for nonwelfare mothers. Policy implications are discussed.     

社会经济统计学与数理统计学的比较

多年来,在统计学界关于社会经济统计学与数理统计学的“是非”问题一直争论不休,本文通过对这两种统计学在研究对象、研究范围和内容,以及二者的发展与创新机理和研究理论几个方面的比较,阐述了保持两门统计学并存的必要性。     

教育失序问题的文化救治（下）

教育发展、人的自由而全面发展与教育秩序的矛盾，是人们在现代社会生活中所必然遇到的一个基本问题。这在教育的现代转型中表现得尤为明显。虽然解答这一问题的根本思路是加强教育制度建设，但由于文化有其特殊的公共性，因而也是解答现代社会教育发展、人的自由而全面发展与教育秩序问题的一条重要理路。在现代教育制度的架构下，通过帮助人们获得公共价值观、起码共识和基本共同感，文化构成现代社会教育发展、人的自由而全面发展不可或缺的重要机制。     

A circular-cone test for testing homogeneity against a simple tree order

Several methods exist for the problem of testing the equality of several treatments against the one-sided alternative that the treatments are better than the control. These methods include Dunnett's test, Bartholomew's likelihood-ratio test, the Abelson-Tukey-Schaafsma-Smid optimal-contrast test, and the multiple-contrast test of Mukerjee, Robertson, and Wright. A new test is proposed based on an approximation of the likelihood-ratio test of Bartholomew. This test involves using a circular cone in place of the alternative-hypothesis cone. The circular-cone test has excellent power characteristics similar to those of Bartholomew's test. Moreover, it has the advantages of being simpler to compute and may be used with unequal sample sizes.     

权利的价值追问

权利的价值追求与人的价值追求是一致的,权利归根到底是为人而存在的,因此说权利的价值是人的价值的确证方式。权利制度的确认和实现是权利追求自身的价值实现以及促进人的价值实现的过程,权利制度始终以价值主线贯穿其中。