Frame Correction Modelling with Applications to the German Register‐Assisted Census 2011

Frame corrections have been studied in census applications for a long time. One very promising method is dual system estimation, which is based on capture–recapture models. These methods have been applied recently in the USA, England, Israel and Switzerland. In order to gain information on subgroups of the population, structure preserving estimators can be applied [i.e. structure preserving estimation (SPREE) and generalized SPREE]. The present paper extends the SPREE approach with an alternative distance function, the chi‐square. The new method has shown improved estimates in our application with very small domains. A comparative study based on a large‐scale Monte Carlo simulation elaborates on advantages and disadvantages of the estimators in the context of the German register‐assisted Census 2011.     

The effects of children’s proximity‐seeking to maternal attachment figures during mild stress exposure on mood and physiological responses: An experimental study

In this study we investigated the effects of seeking versus avoiding proximity to mother on children’s emotional recovery from a stressor. Sixty children 9–12 years underwent a moodinduction procedure and were randomly assigned to seek proximity from or avoid an image of their mothers. The effect of this manipulation on children’s self‐reported negative emotions, skin conductance and heart rate variability (respiratory sinus arhythmia) was assessed. Higher levels of attachment anxiety were linked to more self‐reported sadness when children had to avoid mother, but no evidence for such an effect was found on a physiological level. For avoidant attachment, a similar pattern of results emerged, but both for self‐reported sadness and skin conductance.     

Maternal socialization of children’s positive affect regulation: Associations with children’s savoring,dampening, and depressive symptoms

Maternal socialization of positive affect (PA) is linked to children's regulation of positive and negative emotions and the development of psychopathology. However, few studies have examined multiple types of emotion socialization as related to children's PA regulation and depressive symptoms. The current study examined how mothers’ socialization of children's PA regulation was related to children's PA regulation, and if children's PA regulation mediated the association between maternal socialization and children's depressive symptoms. Ninety‐six mother–child dyads (children aged 7–12) completed questionnaires and a five‐minute discussion about a positive event the child previously experienced; 76 dyads completed surveys again five months later. Partial correlations, controlling for child age and gender, indicated associations between maternal PA socialization and child PA regulation. Moderated mediation models suggested that maternal modeling of savoring predicted Time 2 child depressive symptoms via children's own savoring, which was moderated by Time 1 depressive symptoms. The moderated path indicated that only for children who reported higher depressive symptoms at Time 1, higher levels of savoring predicted lower depressive symptoms at Time 2. These results underscore the importance of examining multiple types of PA socialization and child PA regulation to predict children's depressive symptoms longitudinally.     

COVID‐19, ethics of care and feminist crisis management

The COVID‐19 pandemic threatens both lives and livelihoods. To reduce the spread of the virus, governments have introduced crisis management interventions that include border closures, quarantines, strict social distancing, marshalling of essential workers and enforced homeworking. COVID‐19 measures are necessary to save the lives of some of the most vulnerable people within society, and yet in parallel they create a range of negative everyday effects for already marginalized people. Likely unintended consequences of the management of the COVID‐19 crisis include elevated risk for workers in low‐paid, precarious and care‐based employment, over‐representation of minority ethnic groups in case numbers and fatalities, and gendered barriers to work. Drawing upon feminist ethics of care, I theorize a radical alternative to the normative assumptions of rationalist crisis management. Rationalist approaches to crisis management are typified by utilitarian logics, masculine and militaristic language, and the belief that crises follow linear processes of signal detection, preparation/prevention, containment, recovery and learning. By privileging the quantifiable — resources and measurable outcomes — such approaches tend to omit considerations of pre‐existing structural disadvantage. This article contributes a new theorization of crisis management that is grounded in feminist ethics to provide a care‐based concern for all crisis affected people.     

Using Sand Tray to Facilitate College Students' Career Decision‐Making: A Qualitative Inquiry

Career decision‐making can be a challenging and stressful process for college students, and career counselors can be instrumental in helping college students to ease this process. Sand tray, an expressive, play therapy technique, offers career counselors a potentially useful method in this regard. The authors examine the use of sand tray to promote the career decision‐making process. Four undergraduate college students engaged in a sand tray intervention designed to promote career decision‐making. In the final session, students participated in an interview and had the opportunity to review and reflect on their sand tray photographs. Results of a phenomenological‐based analysis revealed 5 themes: (a) initial skepticism, (b) helpfulness, (c) awareness, (d) self‐expression, and (e) continued work. Career counselors may use this unique, creative approach to help clients who are stuck in the career decision‐making process. Future research may include examining the use of sand tray with other interventions, as well as examining intervention effectiveness on career outcome variables.     

Smartphones and Face‐to‐Face Interaction: Digital Cross‐Talk During Encounters in Everyday Life

Using data collected from focus groups and nonparticipant observations, this article explores how and why cross‐talk by way of smartphone affects face‐to‐face encounters. The findings show there are three types of digital cross‐talk: exclusive, semi‐exclusive, and collaborative. Furthermore, it was found that digital cross‐talk can either facilitate or disrupt the expressive order of an encounter. Semi‐exclusive and collaborative digital cross‐talk were found to facilitate encounters. Exclusive digital cross‐talk was found to disrupt or have little influence on encounters, depending on whether or not interlocutors successfully engaged in a corrective process, an avoidance process, or aggressive face‐work.     

Model Selection and Estimation with Quantal‐Response Data in Benchmark Risk Assessment

This article describes several approaches for estimating the benchmark dose (BMD) in a risk assessment study with quantal dose‐response data and when there are competing model classes for the dose‐response function. Strategies involving a two‐step approach, a model‐averaging approach, a focused‐inference approach, and a nonparametric approach based on a PAVA‐based estimator of the dose‐response function are described and compared. Attention is raised to the perils involved in data “double‐dipping” and the need to adjust for the model‐selection stage in the estimation procedure. Simulation results are presented comparing the performance of five model selectors and eight BMD estimators. An illustration using a real quantal‐response data set from a carcinogenecity study is provided.     

In Search of Perfect Foresight? Policy Bias,Management of Unknowns,and What Has Changed in Science Policy Since the Tohoku Disaster

The failure to foresee the catastrophic earthquakes, tsunamis, and nuclear accident of 2011 has been perceived by many in Japan as a fundamental shortcoming of modern disaster risk science. Hampered by a variety of cognitive and institutional biases, the conventional disaster risk management planning based on the “known risks” led to the cascading failures of the interlinked disaster risk management (DRM) apparatus. This realization led to a major rethinking in the use of science for policy and the incorporations of lessons learned in the country's new DRM policy. This study reviews publicly available documents on expert committee discussions and scientific articles to identify what continuities and changes have been made in the use of scientific knowledge in Japanese risk management. In general, the prior influence of cognitive bias (e.g., overreliance on documented hazard risks) has been largely recognized, and increased attention is now being paid to the incorporation of less documented but known risks. This has led to upward adjustments in estimated damages from future risks and recognition of the need for further strengthening of DRM policy. At the same time, there remains significant continuity in the way scientific knowledge is perceived to provide sufficient and justifiable grounds for the development and implementation of DRM policy. The emphasis on “evidence‐based policy” in earthquake and tsunami risk reduction measures continues, despite the critical reflections of a group of scientists who advocate for a major rethinking of the country's science‐policy institution respecting the limitations of the current state science.