生态·能量·中国地域文化

作为一种文化唯物主义理论,在西方流行的"文化进化论"中有一些成分值得中国地域文化研究加以批判借鉴。其中,"文化生态学"和"文化进化能量法"以及"新进化论"等学说,均在一定程度上与唯物史观有所契合,对我们解剖中国地域文化的异同提供了某种基本视角。     

和谐社会语境下诉讼调解的完善——以调审分离、审前调解为构建中心

在党中央提出构建社会主义和谐社会以后,民事诉讼调解制度再一次被提倡和推广。但是,现行立法规定的诉讼调解模式在实践中却产生了诸多弊端,越来越不适应社会的发展和法治的要求,它不仅没有发挥调解的优势,反而在扭曲调解制度本来面目的同时破坏了审判的公正性。文章通过阐述和谐社会语境下诉讼调解的本质,剖析了现行调审合一模式的弊端,主张建立以当事人合意为指针、以调审分离、审前调解为基本模式的诉讼调解制度。     

Dependent Lindeberg central limit theorem for the fidis of empirical processes of cluster functionals

Drees H. and Rootzén H. [Limit theorems for empirical processes of cluster functionals (EPCF). Ann Stat. 2010;38(4):2145–2186] have proven central limit theorems (CLTs) for EPCF built from β-mixing processes. However, this family of β-mixing processes is quite restrictive. We expand some of those results, for the finite-dimensional marginal distributions (fidis), to a more general dependent processes family, known as weakly dependent processes in the sense of Doukhan P. and Louhichi S. [A new weak dependence condition and applications to moment inequalities. Stoch. Proc. Appl. 1999;84:313–342]. In this context, the CLT for the fidis of EPCF is sufficient in some applications. For instance, we prove the convergence without mixing conditions of the extremogram estimator, including a small example with simulation of the extremogram of a weakly dependent random process but nonmixing, in order to confirm the efficacy of our result.     

Improved local polynomial estimation in time series regression

We propose a modification of local polynomial estimation which improves the efficiency of the conventional method when the observation errors are correlated. The procedure is based on a pre-transformation of the data as a generalization of the pre-whitening procedure introduced by Xiao et al. [(2003), ‘More Efficient Local Polynomial Estimation in Nonparametric Regression with Autocorrelated Errors’, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 98, 980–992]. While these authors assumed a linear process representation for the error process, we avoid any structural assumption. We further allow the regressors and the errors to be dependent. More importantly, we show that the inclusion of both leading and lagged variables in the approximation of the error terms outperforms the best approximation based on lagged variables only. Establishing its asymptotic distribution, we show that the proposed estimator is more efficient than the standard local polynomial estimator. As a by-product we prove a suitable version of a central limit theorem which allows us to improve the asymptotic normality result for local polynomial estimators by Masry and Fan [(1997), ‘Local Polynomial Estimation of Regression Functions for Mixing Processes’, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, 24, 165–179]. A simulation study confirms the efficiency of our estimator on finite samples. An application to climate data also shows that our new method leads to an estimator with decreased variability.     

On the Loss Robustness of Least-Square Estimators

Abstract

The article revisits univariate and multivariate linear regression models. It is shown that least-square estimators (LSEs) are minimum risk estimators in general class of linear unbiased estimators under some general divergence loss. This amounts to the loss robustness of LSEs.     

Mothers and fathers’ experiences of high conflict past two years post separation: A systematic review of the qualitative literature

Abstract

Within a child custody context, this article systematically reviewed the available qualitative research of post separation, high conflict, co-parenting relationships. Separated parents’ experiences of high conflict were reportedly embedded in pervasive mistrust and disdain, and underpinned by concerns over differing parenting styles, or the other parent’s ability to adequately care for the child. The factors that potentially maintained conflict were parental concerns regarding the child’s safety and well-being when in the care of the other parent. The factor that potentially escalated conflict was disdain directed at the other parent’s concerns. Recommendations for future research and implications for social policy for these families are discussed.     

A weak convergence criterion for constructing changes of measure

Based on a weak convergence argument, we provide a necessary and sufficient condition that guarantees that a nonnegative local martingale is indeed a martingale. Typically, conditions of this sort are expressed in terms of integrability conditions (such as the well-known Novikov condition). The weak convergence approach that we propose allows to replace integrability conditions by a suitable tightness condition. We then provide several applications of this approach ranging from simplified proofs of classical results to characterizations of processes conditioned on first passage time events and changes of measures for jump processes.     

The value of administrative data for longitudinal social research: a case study investigating income support receipt and relationship separation in Australia

ABSTRACT

In recent years, the Australian government has encouraged open access to administrative data, providing new opportunities for examining life course pathways and evaluating social policies. This paper demonstrates the importance of establishing partnerships in the use of administrative data for social research. In collaboration with the data custodian, we used administrative welfare data to investigate a policy-relevant topic: the association between income support receipt and relationship separation. Our results provided greater statistical power for detecting associations for minority groups than is possible with panel survey data, highlighting the benefits of administrative data for understanding the outcomes of population groups that are not well represented in surveys. The collaboration between university researchers and data custodians was critical to enable appropriate sharing of data for research and for accurate interpretation of the data and outcomes for relevance to policy.     

Dual life of seafarers’ families: descriptive study of perspectives of seafarers’ partners

ABSTRACT

Although the dual life of a seafarer’s family is recognized as a unique life, a systematic approach to the perspectives of seafarers’ partners is lacking, especially in the case of long-term separation. Therefore, we have adopted a qualitative approach to gain systematic and deeper insight into the features of the seafarers’ occupation which are reflected positively or negatively in their partners’ lives. By means of an online survey, we collected data from 647 partners of Croatian seafarers. The data obtained, relating to open-ended questions, were analysed by thematic analysis. Negative effects of separation emerged as the most strongly-represented theme, wherein a range of different aspects relating to separation is identified (loneliness, overload with domestic duties and care for children, etc.). Other negative aspects relate to fear caused by risks and stressors in seafaring, subordination of one’s own job/career, and lack of understanding and support from family and friends. Still, participants reported a range of positive aspects of the dual life, such as financial security, growth of the loving relationship, full commitment from their partner during days off, the benefits of the seafarer's job satisfaction for the relationship, and having time for one’s own growth during the partner’s absence.     

Central limit theorem for the variable bandwidth kernel density estimators

In this paper we study the ideal variable bandwidth kernel density estimator introduced by McKay (1993a, b) and Jones et al. (1994) and the plug-in practical version of the variable bandwidth kernel estimator with two sequences of bandwidths as in Giné and Sang (2013). Based on the bias and variance analysis of the ideal and plug-in variable bandwidth kernel density estimators, we study the central limit theorems for each of them. The simulation study confirms the central limit theorem and demonstrates the advantage of the plug-in variable bandwidth kernel method over the classical kernel method.