Intraday Serial Correlation,Volatility, and Jump: Evidence from China's Stock Market

In this article, we investigate the relationships among intraday serial correlation, jump-robust volatility, positive and negative jumps based on Shanghai composite index high frequency data. We implement variance ratio test to quantify intraday serial correlation. We also measure the continuous part of realized volatility using jump-robust MedRV estimator and disentangle positive and negative jumps using Realized Downside Risk Measure and Realized Upside Potential Measure proposed by Bi et al., (2013 Bi, T., Zhang, B., Wu, H. (2013). Measuring downside risk using high frequency data–realized downside risk measure. Communications in Statistics–Simulation and Computation 42(4):741–754.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We find that intraday serial correlation are positively correlated with jump-robust volatility and negatively correlated with negative jumps which confirm the LeBaron effect.     

寻找光明的使者——试析西方女性主义作家女性独立意识的觉醒

“独立”、“自由”是觉醒女性的渴求和为之奋斗的目标,她们用自己的笔写下了对女性的理解,关注女性的命运。本文从女性主义的角度剖析了一些女性作家笔下的女性人物形象,探寻她们对女性主义所做的贡献。女性要独立、自由、争取社会地位。男性要维护自己的权益、巩固自己的地位,二者问的斗争是不断的。是一场永不停息的没有硝烟的战争。但不论是女性主义思想的不断强大。还是男权社会的坚不可摧,二者的和谐共处才是两性生存的美好前景,就现阶段而言,女性争取独立、自主、解放的进程还是任重道远的。     

对我国法院行政事务管理体制改革的思考

法院的行政事务管理是任何国家的法院系统无法回避的问题,而审判工作与法院的司法行政事务是有着不同的规律性要求的,为保障法院的有效运行,各法治国家在不同司法体制和历史文化背景下都形成了各具特色的司法行政体制,主要有两类模式:一是完全独立于法院,由专门的司法行政机构进行管理;二是由法院主导下的相对独立机构对司法行政事务进行管理.而目前我国法院系统的行政事务管理则没有认识到其与审判工作的不同要求,需要作相应的体制改革.     

反思女性:《弗兰肯斯坦》女性形象分析

《弗兰肯斯坦》中女性形象丰富、寓意深刻,折射出这部作品所蕴藏的玛丽.雪莱极具洞察力的、极具远见性的女性观,其中包括对十九世纪初西方女性的生存状况、女性的奴化与反抗意识以及对女性出路的深刻反思。     

Bayes linear analysis for graphical models: The geometric approach to local computation and interpretive graphics

This paper concerns the geometric treatment of graphical models using Bayes linear methods. We introduce Bayes linear separation as a second order generalised conditional independence relation, and Bayes linear graphical models are constructed using this property. A system of interpretive and diagnostic shadings are given, which summarise the analysis over the associated moral graph. Principles of local computation are outlined for the graphical models, and an algorithm for implementing such computation over the junction tree is described. The approach is illustrated with two examples. The first concerns sales forecasting using a multivariate dynamic linear model. The second concerns inference for the error variance matrices of the model for sales, and illustrates the generality of our geometric approach by treating the matrices directly as random objects. The examples are implemented using a freely available set of object-oriented programming tools for Bayes linear local computation and graphical diagnostic display.     

Violence and political culture in Mozambique

This article is an attempt at developing a lens through which political culture in Mozambique can be analysed, described and interpreted. It is based on the notion of a political teleology that emerged out of the conditions within which the country fought for its independence. The paper argues that violence in a symbolic and physical form played a central role in the constitution of this political teleology by, on the one hand, allowing the liberation movement to produce an account of Mozambican history which both gave legitimacy to its own struggle while at the same time undermining alternative accounts and, on the other, set the scene for the implementation of a national project that came to be primarily concerned with the reproduction of the claim to power of the liberation movement. Forty years of independence in Mozambique offer an ideal time frame to attempt the construction of such a lens.     

反思建国初期我国科技发展中政府的作用

我国在建国初期实行的科技政策很大程度上是国家意志的产物,高度集中的科技管理体系致使科学家独立地位在一定程度消失。从某种角度讲,我国解放后对科技的引进仍旧遵循本质上的“中体西用”。     

审判独立与抗诉监督制度的完善

司法公正需要审判独立和对审判权实施监督两方面的共同支撑。根据我国的政治体制和司法现状,检察权对审判权的监督必不可少,检察监督与审判独立之间既相互冲突又相互统一。在改造抗诉监督制度时,必须坚持“不损害独立审判权”的底线,把抗诉理由的标准由“确有错误”修改为“认为有错误”,把抗诉范围限定在“损害国家利益和社会公益”的案件和“适用法律错误”的案件,并对抗诉期间和抗诉次数作出严格限制以维护审判结果的终局性和权威性。     

论司法审查制度之困境与出路

就现代法治的基本精神而言,以权力制约和权利救济为主旨的司法审查机制具有明显的价值合理性,但是,在制度实践方面,现行司法审查机制的展开却遭遇重重困境,表现为司法设置之体制依附性、司法审查范围之局限性以及审查标准之单一化。重整与完善我国司法审查制度之根本出路在于:深化司法体制改革,彰显和强化司法独立;拓宽司法审查的对象范围,变审查法定原则为审查假定原则;实现司法审查标准的多元化,推行司法最终裁决原则。     

对我国法院体制现代化的思考

我国当前的法院体制改革是司法体制改革中非常重要和关键的一个环节,也是我国始于清末的近百余年法院体制现代化历程中最具有历史意义的一个阶段。以司法独立为目标,以构建科学合理的具体制度为内容的法院体制现代化经历了百余年曲折艰难的历程,在21世纪的今天仍将继续其前进的步伐,走向更完善更科学的未来。