Nonconglomerative coherent conditional probabilities in statistical inference

Noteworthy connections among conglomerability, countable additivity and coherence are discussed in detail, reaching the conclusion that nonconglomerable conditional probabilities must not be doomed and play a significant role in statistical inference. Extended and updated version of a contributed paper presented at the International Conference on “Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in knowledge-based systems”, IPMU 2004, Perugia, Italy.     

Graphical Models for Composable Finite Markov Processes

Abstract.  Composable Markov processes were introduced by Schweder (1970) in order to capture the idea that a process can be composed of different components where some of these only depend on a subset of the other components. Here we propose a graphical representation of this kind of dependence which has been called 'local dependence'. It is shown that the graph allows to read off further independencies characterizing the underlying Markov process. Also, some standard methods for inference are adapted to exploit the graphical representation, e.g. for testing local independence.     

Some characterizations of discrete distributions based on weak records

Let X ₁, X ₂,... be iid random variables (rv's) with the support on nonnegative integers and let (W _n , n≥0) denote the corresponding sequence of weak record values. We obtain new characterization of geometric and some other discrete distributions based on different forms of partial independence of rv's W _n and W _n+r —W _n for some fixed n≥0 and r≥1. We also prove that rv's W ₀ and W _n+1 —W _n have identical distribution if and only if (iff) the underlying distribution is geometric.     

Global sensitivity analysis with dependence measures

Global sensitivity analysis with variance-based measures suffers from several theoretical and practical limitations, since they focus only on the variance of the output and handle multivariate variables in a limited way. In this paper, we introduce a new class of sensitivity indices based on dependence measures which overcomes these insufficiencies. Our approach originates from the idea to compare the output distribution with its conditional counterpart when one of the input variables is fixed. We establish that this comparison yields previously proposed indices when it is performed with Csiszár f-divergences, as well as sensitivity indices which are well-known dependence measures between random variables. This leads us to investigate completely new sensitivity indices based on recent state-of-the-art dependence measures, such as distance correlation and the Hilbert–Schmidt independence criterion. We also emphasize the potential of feature selection techniques relying on such dependence measures as alternatives to screening in high dimension.     

中国农村社会保障改革的路径依赖与制度创新

随着中国农村市场化、工业化和城市化的发展,农村社会保障制度创新已经成为农村改革的焦点。本文在梳理中国农村社会保障制度变迁过程的基础上,分析了中国农村社会保障制度创新路径依赖的历史和文化因素,及其对当前中国农村社会保障制度创新的影响,提出了当前中国农村社会保障制度创新的基本路径,即只有依靠农村土地制度和农村组织制度的创新,逐渐消解城乡二元社会结构,才能进一步推动中国农村社会保障制度创新。     

论传媒对司法之监督

司法与传媒作为两种独特的社会实践 ,彼此间有着广泛而重要的联系 ,司法过程所蕴含的内容和其本身所显示的刺激性 ,对传媒具有永恒的吸引力 ;而传媒的广泛影响以及传媒所体现的公众意识 ,亦是司法机构所不能漠视的 ,司法和传媒关系的恰当构造是现代社会内部谐调的重要标志     

财务舞弊治理机制研究

会计准则、制度制度的缺陷、公司内部治理机构不完善、外部监督制度和机制不健全为财务舞弊的主要原因,相应的解决措施为:加速会计准则的建设步伐;完善公司内部治理结构,建立健全内部制衡、约束机制;加大对中介结构的监管力度.     

论市场经济与人的自由个性生成

市场经济是当代人的生存方式。市场经济对人本身发展的作用 ,是人与市场经济关系的根本。人在自己的生命活动中创造出市场经济的生存方式 ,通过这种生存方式 ,人与自然界之间、人与人之间、人与自己生命本质之间形成普遍的转换关系。把“自由人”及其自由个性的生成确立为研究市场经济与人的关系的主题 ,从而把市场经济、自由和人融合为一个有机整体。在这样的意识中研究人的市场经济与市场经济中的人 ,才有可能真实地理解人的自由与自由的人。从人的发展这个根本性的视角来说 ,市场经济的历史地位在于促成“世界历史性、真正普遍的个人”的生成     

辩证法理论的新视角

辩证法理论在今天面临着它作为一门理论科学所赖以存在的独立性和合理性问题的挑战.本文在考察辩证法史的基础上,认为辩证法所要探讨的"矛盾"问题应当是有其特定的所指,主体和客体的"关系"问题应当是辩证法的实质和核心;思维和存在、人与自然、个人与社会三个方面的关系问题是主客体关系问题的有机组成部分;人与自然、个人与社会的矛盾关系问题正日益成为辩证法所关注的重大理论和现实问题共产主义实践的方向就是要辨证地解决上述三大矛盾.     

论非审计服务对审计独立性的影响

随着会计行业竞争的日趋激烈和会计服务市场的发展,越来越多的会计师事务所把目光投向小风险、低成本、高回报的非审计业务。非审计业务的发展使其在注册会计师行业中占据了越来越重要的地位,它与审计独立性的关系历来为学术界及实务界所关注。