民事裁判文书公开的中国路径——基于审判信息公开语境之诠释

民事裁判文书公开制度在审判信息公开、审判信息获取权等方面仍存在诸多问题,需遵循司法公开的本质规律、民事裁判文书公开的多元价值理念,从明确法院主动公开裁判文书的义务、拓展公众对民事审判信息知悉的渠道、扩充可公开的民事裁判文书种类、增设民事裁判文书公开救济机制,以及建立民事裁判文书更新、撤销等保障机制之路径予以优化。     

审判经验的迷局与研判——从“案多人少”切入

2008年以来,江苏法院开展了大规模的总结审判经验专项活动。这是在案件数量剧增的态势下法院为化解案多人少的矛盾之为,但得到的经验相当一部分并非是有效提升办案效率的＂精品＂。从短期看,审判经验总结会适得其反,加大案多人少压力;但从长期来看,对于缓解案多人少压力会有所帮助。因此,审判经验有总结的价值,但在传承和发展审判经验时,对于个人经验和集体经验应当区别对待。     

Estimation of Stratified Mark‐Specific Proportional Hazards Models with Missing Marks

Abstract. An objective of randomized placebo‐controlled preventive HIV vaccine efficacy trials is to assess the relationship between the vaccine effect to prevent infection and the genetic distance of the exposing HIV to the HIV strain represented in the vaccine construct. Motivated by this objective, recently a mark‐specific proportional hazards (PH) model with a continuum of competing risks has been studied, where the genetic distance of the transmitting strain is the continuous ‘mark’ defined and observable only in failures. A high percentage of genetic marks of interest may be missing for a variety of reasons, predominantly because rapid evolution of HIV sequences after transmission before a blood sample is drawn from which HIV sequences are measured. This research investigates the stratified mark‐specific PH model with missing marks where the baseline functions may vary with strata. We develop two consistent estimation approaches, the first based on the inverse probability weighted complete‐case (IPW) technique, and the second based on augmenting the IPW estimator by incorporating auxiliary information predictive of the mark. We investigate the asymptotic properties and finite‐sample performance of the two estimators, and show that the augmented IPW estimator, which satisfies a double robustness property, is more efficient.     

Queering the Spinsters: Single Middle-Class Women in Norway, 1880–1920

ABSTRACT

Constituting what may be called “a community of spinsters,” Norwegian middle-class unmarried woman played an important role in undermining and destabilizing the heterosexual cultural matrix during the period 1880–1920. In their anti-sexuality, self-sufficiency and hatred of men the spinsters challenged the heteronormativity of the period, and their queerness still presents a challenge to the harmony-oriented, heteromormative Norwegian women's history.     

Polynomial Factorization for Servers with Semi-Markovian Workload: Performance and Numerical Aspects of a Verified Solution Technique

Abstract

We investigate polynomial factorization as a classical analysis method for servers with semi-Markov arrival and service processes. The modeling approach is directly applicable to queueing systems and servers in production lines and telecommunication networks, where the flexibility in adaptation to autocorrelated processes is essential.

Although the method offers a compact form of the solution with favourable computation time complexity enabling to consider large state spaces and system equations of high degree, numerical stability is not guaranteed for this approach. Therefore we apply interval arithmetic in order to get verified results for the workload distributions, or otherwise to indicate that the precision of the computation has to be improved. The paper gives an overview of numerical and performance aspects of factorization in comparison to alternative methods.     

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to be stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase II and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail.     

Adaptive Crossover Design for Normal Responses

In a response-adaptive design, we review and update the trial on the basis of outcomes in order to achive a specific goal. In clinical trials our goal is to allocate a larger number of patients to the better treatment. In the present paper, we use a response adaptive design in a two-treatment two-period crossover trial where the treatment responses are continuous. We provide probability measures to choose between the possible treatment combinations AA, AB, BA, or BB. The goal is to use the better treatment combination a larger number of times. We calculate the allocation proportions to the possible treatment combinations and their standard errors. We also derive some asymptotic results and provide solutions on related inferential problems. The proposed procedure is compared with a possible competitor. Finally, we use a data set to illustrate the applicability of our proposed design.     

Non-linear models 1

This is the first application of a new method for testing stationary random point processes. Consider the class of all stationary ergodic point processes on the real line with arbitrary dependences among the inter–point distances (spacing).The hypothesis is :The observed process φ is a homogeneous Poisson process or more (resp.less) regular than a Poisson process.The sample is the vector of the first n points t₁, …,t_n.There is a close relation between our method for testing and queueing theory: For finding an appropriate test statistic, we observe the behaviour of a single server queue with the input φ.A table of critical values is given.     

Monte-Carlo Sensitivity Analysis for Controlled Direct Effects Using Marginal Structural Models in the Presence of Confounded Mediators

In randomized trials, investigators are frequently interested in estimating the direct effect of a treatment on an outcome that is not relayed by intermediate variables, in addition to the usual intention-to-treat (ITT) effect. Even if the ITT effect is not confounded due to randomization, the direct effect is not identified when unmeasured variables affect the intermediate and outcome variables. Although the unmeasured variables cannot be adjusted for in the models, it is still important to evaluate the potential bias of these variables quantitatively. This article proposes a sensitivity analysis method for controlled direct effects using a marginal structural model that is an extension of the sensitivity analysis method of unmeasured confounding introduced in the context of observational studies. The proposed method is illustrated using a randomized trial of depression.     

Operating Characteristics for Group Sequential Trials Monitored Under Fractional Brownian Motion

Brownian motion has been used to derive stopping boundaries for group sequential trials, however, when we observe dependent increment in the data, fractional Brownian motion is an alternative to be considered to model such data. In this article we compared expected sample sizes and stopping times for different stopping boundaries based on the power family alpha spending function under various values of Hurst coefficient. Results showed that the expected sample sizes and stopping times will decrease and power increases when the Hurst coefficient increases. With same Hurst coefficient, the closer the boundaries are to that of O'Brien-Fleming, the higher the expected sample sizes and stopping times are; however, power has a decreasing trend for values start from H = 0.6 (early analysis), 0.7 (equal space), 0.8 (late analysis). We also illustrate study design changes using results from the BHAT study.