Nonparametric Estimation of the Number of Drug Users in Hong Kong Using Repeated Multiple Lists

We update a previous approach to the estimation of the size of an open population when there are multiple lists at each time point. Our motivation is 35 years of longitudinal data on the detection of drug users by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse in Hong Kong. We develop a two‐stage smoothing spline approach. This gives a flexible and easily implemented alternative to the previous method which was based on kernel smoothing. The new method retains the property of reducing the variability of the individual estimates at each time point. We evaluate the new method by means of a simulation study that includes an examination of the effects of variable selection. The new method is then applied to data collected by the Central Registry of Drug Abuse. The parameter estimates obtained are compared with the well known Jolly–Seber estimates based on single capture methods.     

老龄化背景下社会养老服务体系需求研究 ——以滁州市为例

已有的以“居家为基础、社区为依托、机构为支撑”的社会养老服务体系实际运行中未达到预期效果,存在目标人群模糊, 核心功能不清等问题。通过滁州市居民养老服务需求的调查,构建需求=意愿×能力的模式,研究老人养老服务意愿,支付养 老服务的能力,提出以照护为核心,在居家养老基础上对空巢、独居老人加强社区综合平台的作用,突出高龄、失能、半失能老 人机构养老的支撑作用,引进社会力量,以满足老年人群多样化多层次需求     

Choosing summary statistics by least angle regression for approximate Bayesian computation

Bayesian statistical inference relies on the posterior distribution. Depending on the model, the posterior can be more or less difficult to derive. In recent years, there has been a lot of interest in complex settings where the likelihood is analytically intractable. In such situations, approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides an attractive way of carrying out Bayesian inference. For obtaining reliable posterior estimates however, it is important to keep the approximation errors small in ABC. The choice of an appropriate set of summary statistics plays a crucial role in this effort. Here, we report the development of a new algorithm that is based on least angle regression for choosing summary statistics. In two population genetic examples, the performance of the new algorithm is better than a previously proposed approach that uses partial least squares.     

不同城市的房价是否具有相同的人口集聚效应——基于35个大中城市PVAR模型的实证分析

人口集聚会引起房价上涨,但不同类型的城市由于集聚人口的教育程度不同,房价上涨也具有不同的效应。首先建立人口流动理论模型分析人口集聚对房价上涨的影响,然后通过建立房价、人口集聚、房地产投资和人均可支配收入的PVAR模型进行实证分析。结论表明,一类城市人口集聚对房价上涨具有正效应,二类城市为平效应,三类城市为负效应;三类城市的房价上涨主要是房地产投资和人均收入提高所推动的。     

福建省“十一五”期间人口变化与人力资源供给分析

人口预测和人力资源供给分析是为了适应社会经济发展的客观需要而提出的,它们未来的发展状况,对于一个地区的社会经济的发展影响深远。在对福建省"十五"期间人口与人力资源状况分析的基础上,对福建省"十一五"期间人口与人力资源状况进行初步预测,旨在为福建省制定未来的社会经济发展战略提供人口统计上的数据依据。     

我国人口老龄化的城乡差异及影响因素分析

人口的乡—城转移导致了老龄化城乡倒置现象,人口的单向跨区域流动也造成了我国大范围的地区年龄结构失衡,对我国的经济社会可持续发展造成威胁。基于2010—2019年大陆31个省市的面板数据,以人口老龄化系数为被解释变量,分别构建固定效应和随机效应模型,从人口、经济、社会三个方面研究我国城镇、农村人口老龄化和城乡倒置现象的影响因素以及三类因素在东、中、西部地区的不同表现。结果显示,人口因素是老龄化城乡差异的直接原因,经济因素是根本原因,教育、医疗、社会保障等社会因素在城乡、区域之间影响不一。为此,政府应当增强生育支持力度以提高生育率,推动城乡一体化发展,推动农村地区的养老服务建设,并鼓励区域的联动合作,以缓解老龄化集聚地区的人口压力。     

中国老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响 ——基于CHARLS面板数据的分析

在我国快速老龄化和居民储蓄率居高不下的背景下,结合老年人储蓄偏好和消费特点,构建家庭消费计量分析模型,文章利用CHARLS2011、2013、2015年微观跟踪调查数据,采用工具变量—随机效应模型划分年龄层次和消费类别逐级估计,重点考察老年人储蓄对其家庭消费的影响。研究表明,老年人储蓄水平越高,对家庭消费的促进能力就越强;分城乡来看,农村老年人储蓄对家庭消费的贡献更大;按年龄组别来看,中、低龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响显著,高龄老年人储蓄对家庭消费的影响不显著;按消费类别看,老年人储蓄偏重于家庭基本生活、教育文化、健康等刚性消费支出,城镇和农村老年人储蓄对不同消费类别影响的差异主要表现在日常支出、医疗保健和耐用消费品等方面。此外,研究还发现,老年人拥有房产对家庭消费具有非常明显的提振作用,家庭收入和老年人借贷对家庭消费的贡献显著。     

Finding the vulnerable among China’s elderly: identifying measures for effective policy targeting

Facing a rapidly aging population, China has recently started to formulate and implement policies with the aim to provide old-age care. While well-developed old-age care policies commonly include a built-in component that assesses eligibility based on vulnerability, no such process is established in the context of China. Here, based on data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study collected in both 2011 and 2013, we (a) developed a simple and effective strategy for identifying vulnerable Chinese elderly, which can serve as a basis for policy targeting, and (b) improved the policy relevance and targeting efficiency of this vulnerability measure by including additional health indicators. Our vulnerability measures identify 35% to 46% of Chinese elderly as vulnerable, covering up to 67% of elderly at high risk of death or functional decline. They can serve as an initial screening step for more comprehensive geriatric assessments and enable policy makers to effectively target vulnerable elderly persons in China.     

Population aging and long-term care policies in the Gulf region: a case study of Oman

Population aging is a phenomenon occurring across the globe including in countries traditionally exhibiting population dividends and “youth bulges.” The Gulf Corporation Council countries are no exception as they currently experience a process of population aging, albeit at a different stage from many developed countries. However, due to historically high fertility rates and fast-paced epidemiological transition, some of these countries will experience population aging at a higher pace than what has been observed in Europe and the United States. This article reviews recent developments in long-term care policies in the Gulf region with a focus on Oman as an example of a high-income Arab country that is experiencing population aging while still being governed by traditional family aged-care norms. Utilizing existing data and published research complemented by policy analysis and field visits, we analyze the process of population aging in Oman and neighboring countries and its policy implications.     

人口较少民族经济向现代经济转变的路径分析

在阐述路径依赖理论的基础上,结合人口较少民族经济的特点对人口较少民族经济向现代经济转变的路径进行了分析,提出要辩证地看待人口较少民族传统经济在这一转变中的影响和作用,认为人口较少民族实现经济转变的首要问题是打破经济封闭和信息封闭,在此基础上,将自身的特色优势与区域优势有效结合起来,将传统经济中的积极因素与现代经济因素有效结合起来,走因地制宜、循序渐进的转变路径。