Bayes linear analysis for graphical models: The geometric approach to local computation and interpretive graphics

This paper concerns the geometric treatment of graphical models using Bayes linear methods. We introduce Bayes linear separation as a second order generalised conditional independence relation, and Bayes linear graphical models are constructed using this property. A system of interpretive and diagnostic shadings are given, which summarise the analysis over the associated moral graph. Principles of local computation are outlined for the graphical models, and an algorithm for implementing such computation over the junction tree is described. The approach is illustrated with two examples. The first concerns sales forecasting using a multivariate dynamic linear model. The second concerns inference for the error variance matrices of the model for sales, and illustrates the generality of our geometric approach by treating the matrices directly as random objects. The examples are implemented using a freely available set of object-oriented programming tools for Bayes linear local computation and graphical diagnostic display.     

Practical Maximum Pseudolikelihood for Spatial Point Patterns(with Discussion)

This paper describes a technique for computing approximate maximum pseudolikelihood estimates of the parameters of a spatial point process. The method is an extension of Berman & Turner's (1992) device for maximizing the likelihoods of inhomogeneous spatial Poisson processes. For a very wide class of spatial point process models the likelihood is intractable, while the pseudolikelihood is known explicitly, except for the computation of an integral over the sampling region. Approximation of this integral by a finite sum in a special way yields an approximate pseudolikelihood which is formally equivalent to the (weighted) likelihood of a loglinear model with Poisson responses. This can be maximized using standard statistical software for generalized linear or additive models, provided the conditional intensity of the process takes an 'exponential family' form. Using this approach a wide variety of spatial point process models of Gibbs type can be fitted rapidly, incorporating spatial trends, interaction between points, dependence on spatial covariates, and mark information.     

文化软实力绘就武陵山区美丽乡村新图景 ——以石柱县金铃乡银杏村为实践标杆

位于武陵山区石柱土家族自治县的金铃乡银杏村,是集少数民族、革命地区、集中连片的特困地区。一方面该村以自然山水风光为资源禀赋,以培育民族文化精神高地为乡村振兴“铸魂”、“赋能”;以“非遗文化+扶贫”的路子,激活了乡村的内生动力;文化扶贫直抵人心取得了“点石成金”的效果,让土家人充分享受到文化释放的红利。另一方面,该村作为“民族团结进步示范村”,以做深做实民族团结工作为抓手,充分让民族政策惠及土家万户,生动地实现了民族团结之花在土家大地上常开常盛。一个个串联成珠的实践案例,为武陵山打赢脱贫攻坚战更好地接续乡村振兴发挥了活标杆的示范引领作用,向世人展示一幅色彩斑斓的美丽乡村新图景。     

从提升文化软实力视角探析绿色节能校园的创建

本文从提升高校文化软实力的角度出发,阐述绿色节能校园建设与高校文化软实力之间的关系。     

智库建设的困境摆脱与国家软实力提升

智库是国家软实力的重要体现。改革开放以来,国家软实力的提升为智库建设的机制创新创造了有利条件。但在新时期新的历史条件下,由于体制内官方智库的非自主性、体制外智库发展的滞后性、智库设置和定位的模糊化、智库建设和发展的保障不足等仍影响着国家软实力的提升。不断加强官方智库建设,高度重视半官方智库建设,加大民间智库的扶持力度,引导大学附属型智库的积极发展,建立各类智库的互动合作机制,是我国进一步提升国家软实力的必由之路。     

Arranging sensations: smell and taste in augmented and virtual reality

The development of digital taste and smell underscores the importance of cultural dimensions of bodily perception in augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) devices. This can be seen in Vocktail and Season Traveller, two digital devices incorporating taste and smell. Vocktail is an AR technology that augments the experience of drinking water, or even air, through the electrical stimulation of tastebuds and the manipulation of color and smell. Season Traveller is a VR game in which the user moves through four seasonal landscapes. It uses wind, odor, and temperature in addition to the more standard audio-visual displays. The cultural dimensions of these devices can be examined using phenomenological terms. They instigate perceptual circuits, and call on and create sedimented habits. Although VR and AR are often thought of in terms of their similitude to reality, understanding Vocktail and Season Traveller this way illustrates the world-creating dimension of multisensory devices. These technologies structure and shift thresholds of taste and smell, reworking past perceptual styles and habits to develop new perceptual experiences. In so doing, Season Traveller and Vocktail throw to the fore questions about the conditions according to which people exercise their senses in digitally dominated environments.     

中国P2P网络借贷信用风险的测量

分析中国P2P网络借贷信用风险的生成机理,借鉴商业银行典型个人信用风险测量理论基础与方法,构建基于涵盖借款人软信息的P2P网络借贷信用风险评级指标体系。通过向在银行从事信贷工作的专业人员发放调查问卷,确定具体指标,使用AHP(层次分析法)与DEMATEL(决策实验室法)相结合的方法综合确定指标体系权重,最后评级结果以百分制数值给出,并换算成具体的信用等级,有效解决了平台对借款人信用等级测量问题。     

Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations

Summary.  Structured additive regression models are perhaps the most commonly used class of models in statistical applications. It includes, among others, (generalized) linear models, (generalized) additive models, smoothing spline models, state space models, semiparametric regression, spatial and spatiotemporal models, log-Gaussian Cox processes and geostatistical and geoadditive models. We consider approximate Bayesian inference in a popular subset of structured additive regression models, latent Gaussian models , where the latent field is Gaussian, controlled by a few hyperparameters and with non-Gaussian response variables. The posterior marginals are not available in closed form owing to the non-Gaussian response variables. For such models, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be implemented, but they are not without problems, in terms of both convergence and computational time. In some practical applications, the extent of these problems is such that Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling is simply not an appropriate tool for routine analysis. We show that, by using an integrated nested Laplace approximation and its simplified version, we can directly compute very accurate approximations to the posterior marginals. The main benefit of these approximations is computational: where Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms need hours or days to run, our approximations provide more precise estimates in seconds or minutes. Another advantage with our approach is its generality, which makes it possible to perform Bayesian analysis in an automatic, streamlined way, and to compute model comparison criteria and various predictive measures so that models can be compared and the model under study can be challenged.     

Labor Market Disparities Between African Americans and Afro Caribbeans: Reexamining the Role of Immigrant Selectivity

Black immigrants from the Caribbean have long attained greater labor market success than African Americans. The most recent studies show that Afro Caribbeans have earnings that are approximately 16% greater than African Americans and that Afro Caribbeans are as much as 21% more likely to be employed than African Americans. The most prominent explanation for greater Afro Caribbean success is that, because they have chosen to migrate, Afro Caribbeans are positively self‐selected on characteristics that are key for success in the U.S. labor market. Proponents of immigrant selectivity argue that migrants have greater levels of both hard and soft skills than nonmigrants. Using data from the National Survey of American Life—the first social survey to provide a nationally representative sample of both African Americans and Afro Caribbeans—this study finds that Afro Caribbeans have greater hard skills than African Americans but split the difference on two measures of soft skills: African Americans and Afro Caribbeans are matched on John Henryism, but African Americans have greater personal mastery than Afro Caribbeans. Contrary to expectations, controlling for differences in hard and soft skills does not provide for a meaningful reduction in labor market disparities between African Americans and Afro Caribbeans.     

城市文化软实力构建的“网都”范式

当前全球数字网络化的发展浪潮和历史背景下,"网都"型文化中心城市建设成为转变城市文化发展方式、提升城市文化软实力的新的战略路径和城市设计愿景。城市发展的"网都"形态具有多元文化范式,要根据不同城市的特点和文化基础,推进网络媒介城市(media city)、网络文化产业高地、网络文化名城、互联网总部基地、文化科技融合的创新引领中心、网络文化宜居之都、互联网枢纽城市等不同类型的"网都"建设。不同的网都范型(paradigm)关切到城市文化软实力的不同层面,存在着从硬文化实力向软文化实力的渐变和过渡谱系;既可以单独构建特色网络文化城市的核心性格与差异化竞争力,也可以综合构建城市文化软实力的体系化架构。