Bayesian inference for circular distributions with unknown normalising constants

Very often, the likelihoods for circular data sets are of quite complicated forms, and the functional forms of the normalising constants, which depend upon the unknown parameters, are unknown. This latter problem generally precludes rigorous, exact inference (both classical and Bayesian) for circular data.Noting the paucity of literature on Bayesian circular data analysis, and also because realistic data analysis is naturally permitted by the Bayesian paradigm, we address the above problem taking a Bayesian perspective. In particular, we propose a methodology that combines importance sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in a very effective manner to sample from the posterior distribution of the parameters, given the circular data. With simulation study and real data analysis, we demonstrate the considerable reliability and flexibility of our proposed methodology in analysing circular data.     

Testing spatial randomness based on empirical distribution function: A study on lattice data

In this article, we extended the empirical distribution function based test statistic _Ik$I_k$ of Skaug and Tjostheim [1993. Nonparametric test of serial independence based on the empirical distribution function. Biometrika 80, 591–602] in the time series setting to _Dn$D_n$ for spatial lattice data and derived the asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic _Dn$D_n$ under the null hypothesis of spatial independence. The size and power of the proposed test statistic under conditional autoregressive model (CAR) were simulated. We applied _Dn$D_n$, Moran's I and Geary's c   to the transformed and well-studied sudden infant death syndrome data from North Carolina and found that _Dn$D_n$ produced a much smaller p$p$-value in testing spatial independence.     

Theory & Methods: Krige,Smooth, Both or Neither?

Both kriging and non-parametric regression smoothing can model a non-stationary regression function with spatially correlated errors. However comparisons have mainly been based on ordinary kriging and smoothing with uncorrelated errors. Ordinary kriging attributes smoothness of the response to spatial autocorrelation whereas non-parametric regression attributes trends to a smooth regression function. For spatial processes it is reasonable to suppose that the response is due to both trend and autocorrelation. This paper reviews methodology for non-parametric regression with autocorrelated errors which is a natural compromise between the two methods. Re-analysis of the one-dimensional stationary spatial data of Laslett (1994) and a clearly non-stationary time series demonstrates the rather surprising result that for these data, ordinary kriging outperforms more computationally intensive models including both universal kriging and correlated splines for spatial prediction. For estimating the regression function, non-parametric regression provides adaptive estimation, but the autocorrelation must be accounted for in selecting the smoothing parameter.     

关联理论在大学英语听力教学中的运用

在听力理解中,听者不仅要获得录音材料的字面意义,还要理解话语的隐含意义。本文运用关联理论,探讨了在外语听力教学中,要使学生正确理解话语,应引导学生寻找话语的最佳关联,结合语境进行认知推理,从而提高学生的听力理解能力。     

区域技术创新绩效空间格局演变分析

基于自组织机制与动力学模型,分析了区域技术创新绩效空间格局演变的初始势位阶段、能量需求阶段、能量重组阶段、新势位阶段四个自组织演进过程,及推动区域技术创新绩效空间结构演变的相互作用、自身积累与外部动力三大动力源,在这些动力因素及势位的随机涨落过程中,产生了区域技术创新绩效的聚集或离散现象。然后,从宏观因素、微观因素及关联因素三个角度总结归纳了区域技术创新绩效空间格局演变的影响因素。     

安徽省旅游开发空间自相关统计

利用空间自相关分析方法对安徽省17个城市旅游开发的空间关联情况进行数据分析。选取2008年各市人均旅游收入,计算出全局空间自相关指数I及标准化统计量Z值,发现安徽省城市旅游开发在整体上存在着显著的空间自相关。各市的局部空间自相关G统计表明,安徽省人均旅游收入局部集聚的空间结构主要是正的空间联系,属于低-低集聚和高-高集聚类型。     

长三角高技术产业同构对区域经济增长影响的研究——基于空间计量经济的实证分析

本文从空间经济的视角研究产业同构对区域经济增长的影响,考虑到长三角高技术产业间有较强的空间相关性和溢出效应,采用空间计量模型对2009年长三角16市的数据进行分析,研究发现长三角高技术产业同构对区域经济增长有促进作用。     

话语含义的判别和听力理解

语义层面上语用含义的话语理解是大学英语教学的难点之所在。为加强薄弱环节,须从“会话含义”和“关联”理论出发,揭示话语中交际意图传递的规律和特征,并结合实例分析听力理解过程中可能出现的信息推理障碍及原因。     

对O判断换位的再说明——答朱庆华先生

逻辑学研究必须结合思维内容.符合客观实际是逻辑学研究的原则标准.O判断的换位规则是从具体的O判断换位中抽象出来的,是符合客观实际的.因此,O判断是可以进行换位推理的.     

湖南产业结构变动对经济增长贡献的空间分析

产业结构是经济增长的重要影响因素,合理的产业结构有助于经济的稳定增长,反之,影响经济的持续健康发展。利用（（湖南统计年鉴（2001-2011）》的相关数据,运用多部门经济模型,分析了湖南2000年来产业结构变动与经济增长的关系,发现具有明显的地域差异：从三大地区来看,Z值由大到小的空间演变基本是湘南一湘西一城市群的由南向北、由西向东梯度推进,表明湖南三大地带的经济发展水平和产业结构变动的时间基本相悖;从地级行政区来看,14个市州的Z值以娄底、邵阳、衡阳为中心向四周渐大;P值的空间分布呈现出与经济发展梯度推进相向的特点,产业结构调整在经济发展水平较低的湘西地区具有重要贡献。