Bayesian analysis of threshold autoregressions

A nonasymptotic Bayesian approach is developed for analysis of data from threshold autoregressive processes with two regimes. Using the conditional likelihood function, the marginal posterior distribution for each of the parameters is derived along with posterior means and variances. A test for linear functions of the autoregressive coefficients is presented. The approach presented uses a posterior p-value averaged over the values of the threshold. The one-step ahead predictive distribution is derived along with the predictive mean and variance. In addition, equivalent results are derived conditional upon a value of the threshold. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the approach.     

Predictive inference for linear and multivariate linear models with ma(1) error processes

The prediction distributions of future responses from the linear and multivariate linear models with errors having a first order moving average (MA(1)) process have been derived. First, we obtained the marginal likelihood function for the moving average parameter 6 and from this likelihood function we estimate the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of θ. Using the estimated value θ, we have derived the prediction distributions as well as prediction regions for the future responses. An example has been included.     

Confidence curves and improved exact confidence intervals for discrete distributions

The author describes a method for improving standard “exact” confidence intervals in discrete distributions with respect to size while retaining correct level. The binomial, negative binomial, hypergeometric, and Poisson distributions are considered explicitly. Contrary to other existing methods, the author's solution possesses a natural nesting condition: if α < α', the 1 ‐ α' confidence interval is included in the 1 ‐ α interval. Nonparametric confidence intervals for a quantile are also considered.     

Directional mixture models and optimal estimation of the mixing density

The authors develop consistent nonparametric estimation techniques for the directional mixing density. Classical spherical harmonics are used to adapt Euclidean techniques to this directional environment. Minimax rates of convergence are obtained for rotation ally invariant densities verifying various smoothness conditions. It is found that the differences in smoothness between the Laplace, the Gaussian and the von Mises‐Fisher distributions lead to contrasting inferential conclusions.     

对赫哲族聚居区"十五"期间经济和社会发展的调查分析

本文作者在"十五"期间深入赫哲族聚居区,对赫哲族人民在"十五"期间经济和社会生活各方面所取得的成就进行了调查和分析,向我们展示了赫哲族在"十五"期间全面建设小康社会取得的新成就.     

试论民族地区数字图书馆建设的意义

数字图书馆是信息时代的产物,是图书馆发展历史上的一次深刻革命。数字图书馆不仅代表着图书馆发展的最新方向,而且为文献信息的开发与利用提供了新的机遇。民族地区的数字图书馆建设是民族地区全面建设小康社会、适应信息社会以及进一步开发民族文化资源的迫切需要。     

自治区自治条例研究

民族自治地方自治机关拥有法律规定的立法权。自治机关的立法权主要是制定和变动自治条例和单行条例的权力,自治条例是民族自治地方立法机关和政府行使自治权力的法律标志。自治机关制定自治条例是全面实施民族区域自治制度的需要,是自治机关行使自治权的根本体现。由于多方面原因,到目前为止我国5个自治区无一出台自治区自治条例。制定和出台自治区自治条例必须严格遵循法律规范、法定原则和法定程序,新修改的《民族区域自治法》和西部大开发战略的实施是促成自治区自治条例尽快出台的契机。     

搞好"五个统筹"加快民族地区小康社会建设

党的十六大明确提出了全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标,十六届三中全会提出的"五个统筹"是实现这一目标的重大举措.民族地区要按照"五个统筹"的要求,完善社会主义市场经济体制,加快小康社会建设,必须从国民经济的战略高度,研究和解决"三农"问题;立足优势互补,构筑独具特色的经济区和经济带;集中各民族的智慧和力量,加快生产发展、生活富裕、生态良好的文明步伐;在更大范围、更广领域和更高层次上参与国际经济合作与竞争.这样民族地区实现全面小康社会就有了坚强的保障.     

对西部民族地区英语"一条龙"教学规划的几点思考

我国目前英语教学所花周期较长,效果相对校差,已成为外语界关注的重要课题。针对这一状况,西部地区英语教育更要以“西部开发”为契机,着眼于大、中、小英语教学的全部过程,探讨如何搞好民族地区英语教学的方法和路子。     

试论民族地区经济发展立法

民族地区的经济发展立法是社会主义市场经济法律体系的重要组成部分。本文通过阐述民族地区经济发展立法的价值取向、民族地区经济发展立法中存在的问题、以及如何完善民族地区经济发展立法的途径等方面,对民族地区经济发展立法进行了初步探讨