多变量仿射非线性系统的可逆性秩判据

系统的可逆性判别是非线性控制的逆系统方法的关键,为探索可逆性分析的新途径,该文将系统可逆的秩检验法引入到多变量仿射非线性系统中,其实质是将系统的可逆性判定转化为对系统的输出函数及其导数所构成的雅可比矩阵的秩条件分析。文中给出了仿射非线性系统可逆的秩判据定理与证明过程,提出了一种具体的求逆算法,最后,举例对算法进行了验证,通过与微分几何法和逆系统方法的比较说明了秩判据法的有效性。     

营造良好的理论创新的客观环境

理论创新与理论创造主体所处的社会客观环境有着密切联系。探讨影响理论创新的客观要素,自觉营造有利于百花齐放、百家争鸣的理论春天,对于促进我国哲学社会科学的繁荣,指导我国社会主义现代化建设实践有着极为重要的意义。当前,形成鼓励创新的社会评价标准,加强鼓励创新的制度建设,确立鼓励创新的体制、机制,对于良好的理论创新的客观环境的营造尤为紧迫。     

The Statistical Analysis of Preference Data

A new statistic and a new method of analysis are proposed for data where a sample of respondents provides a preference ordering of some treatments. The new preference statistic is compared with the Friedman statistic, particularly for an example where 12 home owners each ranked four grasses. The new analysis provides a more natural and less misleading assessment of where the differences occur than an analysis based on the rank sums of the Friedman statistic. The new analysis is also more robust to deviations from the classical location problem, is not related to election methods known to have undesirable characteristics and adheres to the Condorcet criterion for election methods.     

Bayesian model selection for join point regression with application to age-adjusted cancer rates

Summary.  The method of Bayesian model selection for join point regression models is developed. Given a set of K +1 join point models M ₀,  M ₁, …,  M _K with 0, 1, …,  K join points respec-tively, the posterior distributions of the parameters and competing models M _k are computed by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. The Bayes information criterion BIC is used to select the model M _k with the smallest value of BIC as the best model. Another approach based on the Bayes factor selects the model M _k with the largest posterior probability as the best model when the prior distribution of M _k is discrete uniform. Both methods are applied to analyse the observed US cancer incidence rates for some selected cancer sites. The graphs of the join point models fitted to the data are produced by using the methods proposed and compared with the method of Kim and co-workers that is based on a series of permutation tests. The analyses show that the Bayes factor is sensitive to the prior specification of the variance σ ², and that the model which is selected by BIC fits the data as well as the model that is selected by the permutation test and has the advantage of producing the posterior distribution for the join points. The Bayesian join point model and model selection method that are presented here will be integrated in the National Cancer Institute's join point software ( http://www.srab.cancer.gov/joinpoint/ ) and will be available to the public.     

Bayesian sample-size determination for one and two Poisson rate parameters with applications to quality control

We formulate Bayesian approaches to the problems of determining the required sample size for Bayesian interval estimators of a predetermined length for a single Poisson rate, for the difference between two Poisson rates, and for the ratio of two Poisson rates. We demonstrate the efficacy of our Bayesian-based sample-size determination method with two real-data quality-control examples and compare the results to frequentist sample-size determination methods.     

ON THE COVERAGE PROBABILITY OF CONFIDENCE INTERVALS IN REGRESSION AFTER VARIABLE SELECTION

This paper considers a linear regression model with regression parameter vector β. The parameter of interest is θ= a^Tβ where a is specified. When, as a first step, a data‐based variable selection (e.g. minimum Akaike information criterion) is used to select a model, it is common statistical practice to then carry out inference about θ, using the same data, based on the (false) assumption that the selected model had been provided a priori. The paper considers a confidence interval for θ with nominal coverage 1 ‐ α constructed on this (false) assumption, and calls this the naive 1 ‐ α confidence interval. The minimum coverage probability of this confidence interval can be calculated for simple variable selection procedures involving only a single variable. However, the kinds of variable selection procedures used in practice are typically much more complicated. For the real‐life data presented in this paper, there are 20 variables each of which is to be either included or not, leading to 2²⁰ different models. The coverage probability at any given value of the parameters provides an upper bound on the minimum coverage probability of the naive confidence interval. This paper derives a new Monte Carlo simulation estimator of the coverage probability, which uses conditioning for variance reduction. For these real‐life data, the gain in efficiency of this Monte Carlo simulation due to conditioning ranged from 2 to 6. The paper also presents a simple one‐dimensional search strategy for parameter values at which the coverage probability is relatively small. For these real‐life data, this search leads to parameter values for which the coverage probability of the naive 0.95 confidence interval is 0.79 for variable selection using the Akaike information criterion and 0.70 for variable selection using Bayes information criterion, showing that these confidence intervals are completely inadequate.     

清代文化政策对八股文衡文标准的影响

“清真雅正”是清代科举八股文的衡文标准。“清真”主要针对理而言,“雅正”针对辞而言。此标准机械而灵活,且具有相当的黜落功能。这一标准有关文风,但它的确立非全因文体发展的内在客观要求而定。它是清初统治者鉴于明末制艺流弊,为配合文化政策的实施而提出的,反映了官方的人才价值取向。这一标准到乾隆时被确定下来,并为满清后来各王朝沿袭并得到强化。     

基于非线性主成分和聚类分析的综合评价方法

针对传统主成分在处理非线性问题上的不足，阐述了传统方法在数据无量纲化中“中心标准化”的缺点和处理“线性”数据时的缺陷，给出了数据无量纲化和处理“非线性”数据时的改进方法，并建立了一种基于“对数中心化”的非线性主成分分析和聚类分析的新的综合评价方法。实验表明，该方法能有效地处理非线性数据。     

论普通话水平测试中异读词的规范问题

普通话水平测试(PSC)中异读词的存在,相当程度上影响了PSC的顺利进行。针对PSC中异读词读音混乱现象,对此类异读词进行系统分类,综合考虑审音标准,提出切实可行的解决办法,有利于确保PSC的科学性、规范性、权威性。     

Bayesian binary segmentation procedure for detecting streakiness in sports

Summary.  When an individual player or team enjoys periods of good form, and when these occur, is a widely observed phenomenon typically called 'streakiness'. It is interesting to assess which team is a streaky team, or who is a streaky player in sports. Such competitors might have a large number of successes during some periods and few or no successes during other periods. Thus, their success rate is not constant over time. We provide a Bayesian binary segmentation procedure for locating changepoints and the associated success rates simultaneously for these competitors. The procedure is based on a series of nested hypothesis tests each using the Bayes factor or the Bayesian information criterion. At each stage, we only need to compare a model with one changepoint with a model based on a constant success rate. Thus, the method circumvents the computational complexity that we would normally face in problems with an unknown number of changepoints. We apply the procedure to data corresponding to sports teams and players from basketball, golf and baseball.