论政治运行的协调稳定机制

政治运行过程由政治决策、政治执行、政治协调、政治参与、政治监督等环节组成,可能出现良性、中性或恶性三种不同的结果状态。政治良性运行即政治的协调稳定发展。实现政治的协调稳定发展,社会必须为之提供必要的外部保障,但最根本的途径是要加强政治运行过程各环节的综合建设。     

Statistical Analyses and Modelling of the Mixing Process of Euro Coins in Germany and Europe

This paper reports on the mixing of Euro coins from different countries of origin in Europe, which started on 1 January 2002. There is an interesting conclusion: that the mobility of small and large denominations is different. The long‐term behaviour of the mixing process is studied using a simple deterministic model and data from Germany, France and the Netherlands. The analysis leads to predictions about the future progress of the mixing process.     

反语的复现性--论认知语用学的反语观

本文从反语的复现性视角探讨了认知语用学的反语观,并将之与古典修辞语义学和Grice的会话含义理论的反语观作了对比分析,指出视反语为对非说话人的思想的复现和二级释解的认知语用学理论较有说服力地阐释了反语的本质特征和语用机制,弥补了传统语义学和语用学的反语现的不足。     

层次分析法在成套设备招标评标中的应用

介绍层次分析法的择优原理及其在成套设备招标评标中的应用;给出计算机软件包,以克服层次分析法计算量过大的缺点。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Statistik für bivariate gemischte Poisson–Prozesse am Beispiel der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung

Zusammenfassung: In diesem Artikel wird der Weg von einem univariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess, der in vielen Bereichen zum Z?hlen von Ereignissen benutzt wird, zu einem bivariaten gemischten Poisson–Prozess aufgezeigt. Dazu werden einige Eigenschaften des bivariaten Prozesses angegeben. Im zweiten Teil der Arbeit wird gezeigt, wie mit Hilfe dieses Prozesses der übergang von einem herk?mmlichen Bonus–Malus–System in der Kraftfahrthaftpflichtversicherung zu einem Bonus–Malus–System mit Berücksichtigung der Schadenart beschritten werden kann. Dazu wird zuerst eine Modellprüfung der gegebenen Daten vorgenommen und sodann werden für verschiedene mischende Verteilungen die Verteilungsparameter gesch?tzt und Nettopr?mien angegeben sowie die Prognosegenauigkeit getestet.

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Summary: In this paper we show that the model of the bivariate mixed Poisson process arises in a natural way from the univariate mixed Poisson process, which is used in several areas for counting certain events. Furthermore we state some properties of the bivariate process. In the second part of the paper we illustrate how by means of the bivariate mixed Poisson process a bonus–malus system handling different types of accidents can be derived from the classical bonus–malus system in third–party liability insurance. To this end we first check the model on the given data and then estimate distribution parameters and compute net premiums for different mixing distributions as well as test the prediction probabilities.

* Vortrag am Dresdner Forum zur Versicherungsmathematik: Tarifierung in Erst- und Rückversicherung am 25. Juni 2004. Für die Unterstützung zu dieser Arbeit m?chte der Autor Lothar Partzsch, Klaus D. Schmidt (beide Dresden) und Friedemann Spies (München) recht herzlich danken.     

听力信息的心理处理模式及对外语教学的启示

文章从认知学习模式的角度,探讨了在听力理解信息加工模式中的“感知-联想”与“符号-认知”以及它们之间的相互关系,并强调应把过去只强调多听的机械型教学模式转变为启发学生利用听力教学中的“感知-联想”与“符号-认知”的关系与相互作用来进行有意义的学习,进而从“行为———认知教学法”的角度揭示了英语听力教学的关键所在。     

股票市场状态的动力学过程分析

就股票市场呈现的变化归纳为四种状态,即随机游走态、扩散漂移态、混沌震荡态、连贯平稳态,并对每一状态给出了动力学过程的数学描述,研究了各种"过程"下方程的解,以及各种状态下对股市价格带来的系统效应.从股市的微观结构出发,探讨了四种状态下的股市特征表现及投资者的操作策略,为实时地预测股市发展提供了辅助决策.     

写作过程与大学生英语写作能力训练

大学生英语写作能力的提高在于教师得当的教学方法和学生的大量的写作实践,得当的教学方法会激发学生写作的积极性和创造性,同时可以减轻教师批阅压力,使师生双方受益。这种方法就是教师充分利用写作过程中的预写阶段、写作阶段和修改阶段来全面训练和培养学生的写作能力。     

20世纪中国文学思潮进程现象反观(一)

每一个时代都有自己时代所需要的历史叙述与文学观念 ,成为了学术的基本权力。 2 0世纪中国文学已经走完了它的全程 ,并完整地展现在我们的记忆与案头。纵览 2 0世纪中国社会思潮的史学进程 :从“人文主义精神”到“社会主义思潮” ,再向世纪末“现代主义理念”的嬗变演进 ,决定 2 0世纪中国文学思潮的整体走向 ,传统的“现、当代文学史”的分期理论与编史叙述的本质缺陷 ,清晰地暴露出来 ,从而有力地支撑着“2 0世纪中国文学”编史叙述的基本构想。