Simulation and quality of a synthetic close-to-reality employer–employee population

It is of essential importance that researchers have access to linked employer–employee data, but such data sets are rarely available for researchers or the public. Even in case that survey data have been made available, the evaluation of estimation methods is usually done by complex design-based simulation studies. For this aim, data on population level are needed to know the true parameters that are compared with the estimations derived from complex samples. These samples are usually drawn from the population under various sampling designs, missing values and outlier scenarios. The structural earnings statistics sample survey proposes accurate and harmonized data on the level and structure of remuneration of employees, their individual characteristics and the enterprise or place of employment to which they belong in EU member states and candidate countries. At the basis of this data set, we show how to simulate a synthetic close-to-reality population representing the employer and employee structure of Austria. The proposed simulation is based on work of A. Alfons, S. Kraft, M. Templ, and P. Filzmoser [{\em On the simulation of complex universes in the case of applying the German microcensus}, DACSEIS research paper series No. 4, University of Tübingen, 2003] and R. Münnich and J. Schürle [{\em Simulation of close-to-reality population data for household surveys with application to EU-SILC}, Statistical Methods & Applications 20(3) (2011c), pp. 383–407]. However, new challenges are related to consider the special structure of employer–employee data and the complexity induced with the underlying two-stage design of the survey. By using quality measures in form of simple summary statistics, benchmarking indicators and visualizations, the simulated population is analysed and evaluated. An accompanying study on literature has been made to select the most important benchmarking indicators.     

Statistical considerations associated with a comprehensive regulatory framework to address the unmet need for new antibacterial therapies

At present, there are situations in antibiotic drug development where the low number of enrollable patients with key problem pathogens makes it impossible to conduct fully powered non‐inferiority trials in the traditional way. Recent regulatory changes have begun to address this situation. In parallel, statistical issues regarding the application of alternative techniques, balancing the unmet need with the level of certainty in the approval process, and the use of additional sources of data are critical areas to increase development feasibility. Although such approaches increase uncertainty compared with a traditional development program, this will be necessary to allow new agents to be made available. Identification of these risks and explicit discussion around requirements in these areas should help clarify the situation, and hence, the feasibility of developing drugs to treat the most concerning pathogens before the unmet need becomes even more acute than at present. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一个齐次的有限Markov链——Ehrenfest模型

本文用递推数列的方法研究了一个齐次的有限Markov链(Ehrenfest模型),得出与李政道著“统计力学”相同的结论。但本文表述方式较之准确、简练,推导所用数学工具较之初等、直接。     

The ratification of ILO Conventions and the provision of unemployment benefits: An empirical analysis

This article tests the relationship between the ratification of International Labour Organization (ILO) Conventions and the provision of unemployment benefits. Statistical tests focus on two related issues: why countries ratify ILO Conventions on unemployment benefits, and whether ratification influences government spending on unemployment benefits. The main findings are that democracy, region, income, and globalization are the main factors influencing why countries ratify ILO Conventions on unemployment benefits. In turn, the ratification of ILO Conventions is systematically associated with higher spending if countries have ratified more than two Conventions.     

居民生活质量的统计分析与综合评价

选择15个指标作为评价居民生活质量的指标体系。利用2004年31个省市的截面数据进行因子分析。依据因子分析结果的特点,计算31个省市居民生活质量的5个因子得分和综合得分。依据综合得分高低对31个省市居民生活质量进行排序与综合评价。     

基于分形理论的时尚商品价格预测问题研究

在研究时尚商品价格规律及影响因素的复杂性、不确定性的基础之上,提出了基于分形理论的时尚商品价格预测新方法。该方法首先运用重标极差法分析了时尚商品价格时间序列预测的可行性,然后根据分形统计模型,得到时尚商品历史价格时间序列的分形维数,通过不断增加新销售或预测得到新的记录方法,求得增加新记录后的新分形维数,由此可以预测出下一时间单位的商品销售价格。通过实例进行了方法检验和结果比较,取得了较为理想的预测结果,证明了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

图书馆读者调查统计与分析

问卷调查情况表明,读者对学校图书馆服务满意度以及图书馆数据库资源的利用率两项均偏低。需要我们牢田树立“以人为本”的管理和服务理念,调整图书馆管理工作思路,提高馆员自身素质,才能适应时代发展的要求。     

高校毕业生就业率统计方法探析

随着我国由计划经济体制向市场经济体制转变,大学生就业也由统包统配向自主择业转变,高校就业率统计工作如何适应形势的发展,从而能够科学、准确地反映出高校实际的就业状况和办学水平,使之能够促进高校教育健康发展是一个值得研究的课题,本文主要总结了我国近年来就业率统计方式的形成、演变过程及现行就业率统计中存在的问题,为就业率统计方法的改革研究奠定基础。     

我国外语实证研究工具层面问题分析

我国现阶段外语实证研究存在两大工具层面的问题:(1)虚构统计量与误用统计方法或统计量;(2)论证违反逻辑规则。这些问题的表现形式多种多样,即使在外语类核心学术期刊登载的研究报告中也不鲜见。虽然主要原因是我国外语教育研究者对实证研究所需要的统计学与逻辑学学科体系了解不足,但有的高层次研究者在虚构时所表现的胆大妄为与无所顾忌,也实在令人诧异。     

人口迁移流动与城镇化的再审视——来自第七次全国人口普查的启示

目前国内仍没有其他更可靠的数据可以挑战在疫情常态化管控、全面二孩政策实施与大数据技术背景下进行的第七次全国人口普查数据的可靠性。对比2020年第七次全国人口普查公报数据,发现2011—2019年国家统计局根据人口变动抽样调查结果对某些人口数据的估计存在较大偏差,严重低估了中国迁移流动人口规模与城镇化水平。中国常住人口城镇化速度未见减缓,而户籍人口城镇化水平相对较低并导致半城镇化现象愈演愈烈。由于流动人口规模持续扩大以及被长期低估,导致公共资源错配和对落户群体不公等系列问题。因此,应审视中国城镇化发展、流动人口规模扩大与市辖区人户分离愈演愈烈的阶段性特征及其可能带来的负面影响。