Reciprocal relationships between psychosocial work characteristics and sleep problems: A two-wave study

Sleep problems are common and impair the health and productivity of employees. Work characteristics constitute one possible cause of sleep problems, and sleeping poorly might influence wellbeing and performance at work. This study examines the reciprocal associations between sleep problems and psychosocial work characteristics. The participants were 1744 full-time employed individuals (56% women; mean age 38 years in 2007) from the Young Finns study who responded to questionnaires on work characteristics (conceptualised by the demand–control model and effort–reward imbalance model) and sleep problems (Jenkins Sleep Scale) in 2007 and 2012. Cross-lagged structural equation models are used to examine the associations. The results show that low control and low rewards at baseline predicted sleep problems. Baseline sleep problems predicted higher effort, higher effort–reward imbalance, and lower reward. Sleep problems also predicted lower odds for belonging to the low (rather than high) job strain group and active jobs group. The association between work characteristics and sleep problems appears to be reciprocal, with a stressful work environment increasing sleep problems, and sleep problems influencing future work characteristics. The results emphasise the importance of interventions aimed at both enhancing sleep quality and reducing psychosocial risks at work.     

生产还是消费——中国股市生产资本资产定价模型实证检验

生产资本资产定价模型从企业利润最大化角度出发,推出资产的均衡价格.相较于消费资本资产定价模型,生产资本资产定价模型能更好的满足信息完全和决策者理性的假设条件.本文从生产资本资产定价模型出发,利用现值模型将生产的系统性风险因子,即生产的贝塔因子分解为现金流贝塔和折现率贝塔,并采用社会总投资和股市数据进行实证检验.本文发现生产-现金流贝塔是中国股市的重要定价因子,可较好地解释股权溢价的截面差异.相比之下,消费资本资产定价模型对不同资产之间风险溢价的解释能力较弱.     

一种新的金融动态横截面估计方法——基于中国股票市场条件定价模型评估的应用与扩展

大多数资产定价模型常常用静态横截面回归(the static cross-sectional regression)进行定价表现评估,从而投资组合回报率的时间变化性并不能被时变的风险承载或者(和)时变的风险溢价所解释.本文从经济学的角度,运用一种新的金融动态横截面回归(the dynamic cross-sectional regression),首次考察了基于中国股票市场和美国股票市场的条件资产定价模型的定价表现:股票市场投资组合回报率的时变性是否能被时变的风险溢价所解释.本文发现,短期收益反转和流通市值加权市场换手率为条件变量的条件资本资产定价模型和基于消费的条件资本资产定价模型,能更好的解释中国股票投资组合的回报时变性,其时变性主要来自于时变的风险溢价.另外,本文发现一些拥有持续(persistence)和缓慢变化(slow-moving)特性的条件变量更能够解释横截面投资组合的时变回报.     

The Use of Simulation to Reduce the Domain of “Black Swans” with Application to Hurricane Impacts to Power Systems

Recently, the concept of black swans has gained increased attention in the fields of risk assessment and risk management. Different types of black swans have been suggested, distinguishing between unknown unknowns (nothing in the past can convincingly point to its occurrence), unknown knowns (known to some, but not to relevant analysts), or known knowns where the probability of occurrence is judged as negligible. Traditional risk assessments have been questioned, as their standard probabilistic methods may not be capable of predicting or even identifying these rare and extreme events, thus creating a source of possible black swans. In this article, we show how a simulation model can be used to identify previously unknown potentially extreme events that if not identified and treated could occur as black swans. We show that by manipulating a verified and validated model used to predict the impacts of hazards on a system of interest, we can identify hazard conditions not previously experienced that could lead to impacts much larger than any previous level of impact. This makes these potential black swan events known and allows risk managers to more fully consider them. We demonstrate this method using a model developed to evaluate the effect of hurricanes on energy systems in the United States; we identify hurricanes with potentially extreme impacts, storms well beyond what the historic record suggests is possible in terms of impacts.     

A reference activity model for smart factory design and improvement

Smart manufacturing systems (SMSs) are envisioned to contain highly automated and IT-driven production systems. To address the complexity that arises in such systems, a standard and holistic model for describing its activities and their interrelationships is needed. This paper introduces a factory design and improvement (FDI) activity model and illustrates a case study of FDI in an electromechanical component factory. In essence, FDI is a reference activity model that encompasses a range of manufacturing system activities for designing and improving a factory during its initial development and also its operational phases. The FDI model shows not only the dependency between activities and manufacturing control levels but also the pieces of information and software functions each activity relies on. We envision that the availability of these pieces of information in digital form to integrate across the software functions will increase the agility of factory design and improvement projects. Therefore, our future work lies in contributing to standards for exchanging such information.     

Household gambling expenditures and the Irish recession

This article examines the determinants of household gambling expenditures in Ireland and the effects of the recession on these expenditures using a large micro data-set, the Irish Household Budget Survey (HBS). Two gambling expenditures are examined, bookmaker tote betting and spending on the national lottery. Households with an older and a less educated head of household participate in and spend more on both forms of gambling while the presence of children in the households tends to reduce participation and spending in gambling. There is also evidence to suggest that households with an unemployed head of household have a higher likelihood of participation in gambling. The recession has affected the two forms of gambling in different ways. Lottery expenditures appear resilient to the effects of the recession. This is demonstrated in the estimated expenditure elasticities in particular. Bookmaker/tote expenditures have changed from a necessity to a luxury good, while lottery expenditures have increased in their necessity status. This can be explained by the fact that playing the lottery requires less time, knowledge and risk and has potentially greater benefits attached to it in comparison to bookmaker/tote betting. During a recession these factors become much more prevalent.     

Influence of competition level on referees’ decision-making in handball

The influence of competition level on referees’ decision-making was investigated. Referees’ decisions in 90 handball games (30 games X 3 competition levels) were observed in different situations related to the advantage rule, and 100 referees from two different levels of expertise were subsequently asked to offer explanations for the competition-level effects from the first part of the study. Results revealed that at the highest level of competition referees intervened less frequently with sporting sanctions, but more frequently with disciplinary sanctions. These effects were apparent mainly in immediate intervention situations and unsuccessful advantage situations, but not in successful situations. Referees explained these effects of competition level in terms of a player competence stereotype, in addition to referees’ different expertise across competition level. The implications of the findings for understanding how status-related stereotypes impact on intervention behavior are discussed.     

Disaster response on September 11, 2001 through the lens of statistical network analysis

The rescue and relief operations triggered by the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City demanded collaboration among hundreds of organisations. To shed light on the response to the September 11, 2001 attacks and help to plan and prepare the response to future disasters, we study the inter-organisational network that emerged in response to the attacks. Studying the inter-organisational network can help to shed light on (1) whether some organisations dominated the inter-organisational network and facilitated communication and coordination of the disaster response; (2) whether the dominating organisations were supposed to coordinate disaster response or emerged as coordinators in the wake of the disaster; and (3) the degree of network redundancy and sensitivity of the inter-organisational network to disturbances following the initial disaster. We introduce a Bayesian framework which can answer the substantive questions of interest while being as simple and parsimonious as possible. The framework allows organisations to have varying propensities to collaborate, while taking covariates into account, and allows to assess whether the inter-organisational network had network redundancy—in the form of transitivity—by using a test which may be regarded as a Bayesian score test. We discuss implications in terms of disaster management.     

Disability and employment policy in the Israeli welfare state: between exclusion and inclusion

Based on the social model(s) of disability, this article seeks to analyse the historical development of Israeli employment policy toward disabled people during the first decade and a half of its existence (1948–1965). Findings from primary and secondary sources suggest that throughout this period disabled people, mainly immigrants, found themselves at the lowest echelons of Israeli society and the labour market. Furthermore, the Israeli welfare state offers an interesting case study of the gap between a welfare state’s stated adherence to social justice and the more limited, and even contradictory, outcomes of its policies. Our discussion suggests that a valuable way of reframing our findings can be found in the critique of de-commodification as an inadequate concept and in the use of related concepts such as re-commodification and quasi-commodification.     

试论双回路维稳模型

社会领域也存在某种惯性趋势,即社会趋稳性。这一概念的提出旨在说明,一切不稳定的产生,必定是受到某种作用力的结果。而社会趋稳性与变动力量的结合,便会造成不同程度的反作用力。这种反弹行为在实践中很容易被界定为＂不稳定因素＂。由于维稳的主客体都是人,而＂人是需求动物＂,所以,维稳的具体政策若不能够融入人的思考、理解及感情,将很难实现人际有效的沟通,进而妨碍动态稳定的实现。以组织平衡理论、需求层次理论、安全阀理论及组织学习理论为基础的双回路维稳模型的提出,旨在强调人类需求、基本秩序以及自然法则在维稳中的关键作用。