亲权法律关系争议问题研究

亲权法律关系诸要素之争,源于亲权属性之争,认为亲权不是权利义务的结合,是父母的私权利。提出亲权权利主体只能是父母;义务主体分为特定和不特定义务人;客体不是子女的人身和财产,而是父母对后代的自然情感利益;未成年子女不是亲权法律关系的权利主体或义务主体,是受益人;内容是亲权得以依法表现的具体形式;认为抚养义务不是亲权内容,而是特定范围亲属间的财产性债权债务关系。     

流域水环境管理的政治学分析

流域水环境管理问题的根源在于管理主体的特殊利益及主体间关系的异化。分析表明,中国流域水环境管理中存在制度性缺失。依照政治文明的发展方向,借鉴世界各国流域治理的实践经验,流域水环境管理的分权化趋势日益明显。鉴于中国市民社会发育不成熟,在流域水环境管理中,政府不仅要整合行政组织资源和力量,而且要培育社会公众参与的意识和能力,以达到实现流域水环境公共治理的目标。     

湖州梅花名胜考

浙江省湖州市是历史上著名的物产富饶、人文荟萃之地,而此处梅花的自然分布,尤其是经济和观赏栽培也展示出明显的优势。南北宋之交乌程菁山梅景连绵十里,在古代梅花风景名胜中,出现时间仅晚于大庾梅岭和西湖孤山,而规模则远过之。其后武康烟霞坞、乌程栖贤山、长兴川口和合溪等地梅景也都以规模称胜。如此大规模梅景的密集分布、辗转出现,在整个古代州府一级的行政区域中极为罕见,由此形成的深厚产业传统亦传承至今。湖州地处江南腹地,介于苏杭之间,其梅花盛况构成了这一地区梅花种植深厚的地缘基础,大大丰富和促进了这一地区梅产业和梅花风景的发展。     

The generalized exponential cure rate model with covariates

In this article, we consider a parametric survival model that is appropriate when the population of interest contains long-term survivors or immunes. The model referred to as the cure rate model was introduced by Boag 1 Boag, J. W. 1949. Maximum likelihood estimates of the proportion of patients cured by cancer therapy. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B, 11: 15–53.  [Google Scholar] in terms of a mixture model that included a component representing the proportion of immunes and a distribution representing the life times of the susceptible population. We propose a cure rate model based on the generalized exponential distribution that incorporates the effects of risk factors or covariates on the probability of an individual being a long-time survivor. Maximum likelihood estimators of the model parameters are obtained using the the expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm. A graphical method is also provided for assessing the goodness-of-fit of the model. We present an example to illustrate the fit of this model to data that examines the effects of different risk factors on relapse time for drug addicts.     

Polynomial Spline Estimation for a Generalized Additive Coefficient Model

Abstract.  We study a semiparametric generalized additive coefficient model (GACM), in which linear predictors in the conventional generalized linear models are generalized to unknown functions depending on certain covariates, and approximate the non-parametric functions by using polynomial spline. The asymptotic expansion with optimal rates of convergence for the estimators of the non-parametric part is established. Semiparametric generalized likelihood ratio test is also proposed to check if a non-parametric coefficient can be simplified as a parametric one. A conditional bootstrap version is suggested to approximate the distribution of the test under the null hypothesis. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed methods. We further apply the proposed model and methods to a data set from a human visceral Leishmaniasis study conducted in Brazil from 1994 to 1997. Numerical results outperform the traditional generalized linear model and the proposed GACM is preferable.     

Testing for order among K populations: theory and examples

Testing for stochastic order among K populations is a common and important problem in statistical practice. It arises in the analysis of both planned experiments and observational studies. The authors develop a new nonparametric test for order among K populations that can accommodate any stochastic ordering. The test is based on a maximally selected chi‐bar‐square statistic. The authors find its limiting distribution and use simulations to derive critical values. Three important examples are used to illustrate the applicability of the general method. The authors find that the new tests outperform the existing methods in many practical cases. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 97–115; 2010 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

面临汇率和供应风险的双渠道采购决策研究

多渠道采购是制造商降低采购风险的有效手段之一。本文考虑一个制造商向两个供应商进行联合采购的最优决策问题。其中本土(国内)供应商价格稳定,但供应不可靠;母国(国外)供应商供应可靠,但实际价格受汇率波动影响。本文研究了制造商在风险厌恶情形下的最优联合采购决策,并与风险中性情形进行了比较。研究表明,风险中性制造商只会向一个供应商采购;而风险厌恶制造商的采购决策会受到供应可靠性、汇率的波动以及两者相关关系的影响。具体来说,当产品合格率和汇率相对独立时,风险厌恶的制造商倾向于单渠道采购;当合格率和汇率相关时则可能选择双渠道采购以分散风险。数值实验表明,双渠道采购可以有效降低制造商的损失风险。     

奖惩机制下制造商竞争的闭环供应链决策模型

本文分别建立了集中式决策,无奖惩机制的分散式决策以及奖惩机制下考虑制造商竞争的闭环供应链决策模型。通过逆向归纳法对三种情况下决策变量的求解与比较,分别得到了闭环供应链的回购价、批发价、零售价及回收率。研究表明：与无奖惩机制下的分散式决策情形相比,政府奖惩机制能有效引导制造商降低新产品价格、提高回收率、增加闭环供应链各成员企业的利润,同时有利于增加消费者的利益;奖惩机制下主动回收废旧产品的制造商利润增加,不回收的制造商利润降低,有效引导了制造商的回收积极性,同时回收商与零售商利润的增加也提高了她们参与闭环供应链的积极性,进而使得整个闭环供应链的成员企业有效协调。     

奖惩机制下具竞争制造商的废旧产品回收决策模型

各国政府为保护环境加强了对废旧电器电子产品的回收再制造的管制。本文研究了两个制造商竞争情况下基于政府奖惩机制的制造商的废旧产品回收决策问题。具体研究时分两种情况:一种情况是两个制造商中只有一个回收再制造废旧产品,另一种情况是两个制造商都回收再制造废旧产品。研究表明:奖惩机制下回收再制造废旧产品的制造商的回收率提高;无论制造商是否回收再制造废旧产品,其新产品销售价均比无奖惩机制时低,奖惩机制对消费者有利;制造商竞争有利于奖惩机制引导制造商提高废旧产品的回收率;回收率随再制造率的提高而提高;无论另一个制造商回收再制造废旧产品与否,实施回收再制造制造商的利润随奖惩力度的提高而增加,随政府规定的目标回收率的提高而降低,且奖惩力度越大,降低幅度越明显。算例分析说明了上述结论的正确性。     

Fisher's Information for Discretely Sampled Lévy Processes

This paper studies the asymptotic behavior of Fisher's information for a Lévy process discretely sampled at an increasing frequency. As a result, we derive the optimal rates of convergence of efficient estimators of the different parameters of the process and show that the rates are often nonstandard and differ across parameters. We also show that it is possible to distinguish the continuous part of the process from its jumps part, and even different types of jumps from one another.