Sampling Strategies for Toxic Air Contaminants

Annual concentrations of toxic air contaminants are of primary concern from the perspective of chronic human exposure assessment and risk analysis. Despite recent advances in air quality monitoring technology, resource and technical constraints often impose limitations on the availability of a sufficient number of ambient concentration measurements for performing environmental risk analysis. Therefore, sample size limitations, representativeness of data, and uncertainties in the estimated annual mean concentration must be examined before performing quantitative risk analysis. In this paper, we discuss several factors that need to be considered in designing field-sampling programs for toxic air contaminants and in verifying compliance with environmental regulations. Specifically, we examine the behavior of SO2, TSP, and CO data as surrogates for toxic air contaminants and as examples of point source, area source, and line source-dominated pollutants, respectively, from the standpoint of sampling design. We demonstrate the use of bootstrap resampling method and normal theory in estimating the annual mean concentration and its 95% confidence bounds from limited sampling data, and illustrate the application of operating characteristic (OC) curves to determine optimum sample size and other sampling strategies. We also outline a statistical procedure, based on a one-sided t-test, that utilizes the sampled concentration data for evaluating whether a sampling site is compliance with relevant ambient guideline concentrations for toxic air contaminants.     

试论主体性德育

当代学生价值取向呈现多元化趋势 ,传统德育陷入困境 ,在把握德育宏观目标的同时 ,强调主体性道德教育的主要内容 ,通过主体品德能力的提升、提高认知与辨识能力、提高移情与内化能力、加强学生在德育中的自我教育作用、注重道德践行、培养创新能力等措施 ,突出发挥德育的主体性作用 ,是社会和个体发展的现实需求 ,是德育取得实效的必然选择     

Gini’s nuclear family

The purpose of this paper is to justify the use of the Gini coefficient and two close relatives for summarizing the basic information of inequality in distributions of income. To this end we employ a specific transformation of the Lorenz curve, the scaled conditional mean curve, rather than the Lorenz curve as the basic formal representation of inequality in distributions of income. The scaled conditional mean curve is shown to possess several attractive properties as an alternative interpretation of the information content of the Lorenz curve and furthermore proves to yield essential information on polarization in the population. The paper also provides asymptotic distribution results for the empirical scaled conditional mean curve and the related family of empirical measures of inequality.      

从部门本位回归到基本理性——对检察机关职权配置的思考

目前,我国法学界对检察机关职权配置问题存在着激烈的争论。争论的主要问题有三个。其中,检察机关是否有侦查权是个伪问题,其本质是检察机关行使侦查权时由谁来监督;检察官不是“中立及超然”的司法人员,不应当有对强制措施的批准权;检察官不应当以居高临下的“法律监督者”的身份监督审判程序,而是应当通过程序动议权和上诉权监督审判程序。目前主张维持检察机关职权现状的学者,有严重的部门本位主义,检察权改革应当摒弃部门本位主义。     

Bayesian analysis of elapsed times in continuous‐time Markov chains

The authors consider Bayesian analysis for continuous‐time Markov chain models based on a conditional reference prior. For such models, inference of the elapsed time between chain observations depends heavily on the rate of decay of the prior as the elapsed time increases. Moreover, improper priors on the elapsed time may lead to improper posterior distributions. In addition, an infinitesimal rate matrix also characterizes this class of models. Experts often have good prior knowledge about the parameters of this matrix. The authors show that the use of a proper prior for the rate matrix parameters together with the conditional reference prior for the elapsed time yields a proper posterior distribution. The authors also demonstrate that, when compared to analyses based on priors previously proposed in the literature, a Bayesian analysis on the elapsed time based on the conditional reference prior possesses better frequentist properties. The type of prior thus represents a better default prior choice for estimation software.     

权力的特性及其要义

权力是一种社会关系。某个主体能够运用其拥有的资源,对他人发生强制性的影响力、控制力,促使或强迫对方按权力者的意志和价值标准作为或不作为,此即权力。法的本质内容主要是自由、权利与权力这三个基本元素构成的,其中权力是法自由和法权利的支柱。权力这个范畴在法学上受到重视,始于近代权力分立理论的启蒙和现代公法的发展,特别是政府职能的扩大,行政权力的无所不在。没有无权力的法。也不容许非法的权力。     

如何完善我国国家审计职责的探讨

近年来,我国社会主义市场经济体制的建立和完善,权力制约机制的建立与加强等都对国家审计有了更高的要求,国家审计也应根据我国审计环境的发展,从完善国家审计法律法规、加强国家审计机关及人员监督等方面入手,进一步完善我国国家审计职责、职权,以更好地为国家经济发展服务。     

BATHTUB-TYPE CURVES IN RELIABILITY AND BEYOND

Finding optimal, or at least good, maintenance and repair policies is crucial in reliability engineering. Likewise, describing life phases of human mortality is important when determining social policy or insurance premiums. In these tasks, one searches for distributions to fit data and then makes inferences about the population(s). In the present paper, we focus on bathtub‐type distributions and provide a view of certain problems, methods and solutions, and a few challenges, that can be encountered in reliability engineering, survival analysis, demography and actuarial science.     

An alternative to model selection in ordinary regression

The weaknesses of established model selection procedures based on hypothesis testing and similar criteria are discussed and an alternative based on synthetic (composite) estimation is proposed. It is developed for the problem of prediction in ordinary regression and its properties are explored by simulations for the simple regression. Extensions to a general setting are described and an example with multiple regression is analysed. Arguments are presented against using a selected model for any inferences.     

试论权力制约与监督的法律制度

有了权力,就同时产生了对权力的制约和监督问题,世界各国都十分重视法律监督模式和效果的探讨,我国对权力监督制约机制还存在许多问题,法律监督制度尚不完善,而法律监督体制构建的关键,在于形成权力的制约机制和充分考虑并确保法律监督的权威和效力。