群体动力论在高校学生群体性事件中的应用

高校学生群体性事件的发生给建立和谐校园和稳定社会带来了严峻的挑战。针对目前高校校园内频频发生的学生群体性事件,高校管理部门应高度地重视。本文从库尔特？勒温的群体动力理论出发,将高校学生群体看成一个相互影响的系统,从网络、学生主体同质性以及教育职能等方面来分析高校学生群体性事件发生的主要诱因,然后从群体性事件的预防着眼,探讨了有效预防高校学生群体性事件的措施,以期有效地控制高校学生群体性事件的发生。     

基于进化博弈的专利联盟形成研究

专利联盟作为高新技术产业发展的主导范式,对技术标准的建立有重要的作用。但是多数情况下提高社会福利的联盟却难以形成,这就是所谓专利联盟的形成困境问题。从专利权人的有限理性和重复博弈角度分析专利联盟的形成,分别建立对称和非对称专利联盟形成的进化博弈模型,得到不同条件下的进化稳定策略,并探讨影响联盟形成的条件和因素。研究结果表明,专利联盟更容易在弹性高、竞争激烈的市场环境中形成;与事实标准建立以后相比,在事前组建的专利联盟形成可能性更大;通过多方途径保护和提高加入联盟的专利权人的利润,同时抑制阻碍联盟的专利权人的利润,是促进联盟形成的关键;与专业R&D企业相比,纵向一体化企业有更强的动机加入联盟。健全和完善相关法规及配套服务对联盟形成也是有益的。     

A dynamic business modelling approach to design and experiment new business venture strategies

Business Modelling has evolved as a key activity to reflect new business venture strategy by framing the way a firm will operate and how it will function in achieving its goals (e.g., profitability, growth, innovation, social impact). However, scholars and practitioners have criticized the adoption of a too static perspective in the design and use of conventional Business Model representations. Such a static perspective prevents nascent entrepreneurs experimenting with their Business Models and, as a result, identifying the most effective strategies, especially in terms of business sustainability and profitability. In this paper, we argue that combining conventional Business Model schemas with System Dynamics modelling results in a strategy design tool that may overcome several limitations related to a static view of Business Model representation. Mapping the different key elements underlying value creation processes into a system of causal interdependencies – through the use of simulation – allows strategy analysts and entrepreneurs to experiment and learn how the business reacts to strategic and organizational changes in terms of performance, innovation and value creation. As such, Dynamic Business Models provide useful insights to strategy formulation and business venturing by capturing how critical Business Model elements interact to produce enduring competitive advantages over time.     

Aggregation and Optimization with State‐Dependent Pricing: A Comment

A key argument in Caplin and Leahy (1997) states that the correlation between monetary shocks and output is falling in the variance of the money supply. We demonstrate that this conclusion depends on solving for the correlation in the nonstationary state of the model. In the stationary state, that correlation is initially rising.     

Scrutinising the interplay between governance and resilience in supply chain management: A systems thinking framework

Supply chain disruptions recurrently challenge end-to-end operations owing to the ambiguous understanding of the role of governance in impacting supply network resilience. This paper scrutinises the relevant literature to understand the plethora of interpretations in supply chain governance and resilience while further providing a new perspective on the representation of the interplay between governance and resilience in supply chains. In this regard, the Systems Thinking lens is adopted to pull together the typologies and constructs of supply chain governance and resilience from the literature. Methodologically, System Dynamics modelling principles are leveraged to capture the underpinning structural interdependencies in a causal loop diagram. The study reveals that endogenous and exogenous supply chain governance processes and mechanisms support the intrinsic and extrinsic resilience in networks. Overall, this research contributes to the supply chain risk management domain by synthesising the interplay between governance and resilience, identifying pertinent typologies, and articulating research propositions that can inform decision-making at policy and management levels.     

基于系统动力学的“互联网+健康医疗”体系模型

“互联网+健康医疗”模式已然成为我国健康医疗产业发展的一个新方向,为解决传统医疗行业中存在的诸多问题提供了新思路。在分析“互联网+健康医疗”对传统医疗的影响及其发展机制的基础上,利用存量流量图等工具构建“互联网+健康医疗”体系模型,运用Vensim软件对我国“互联网+健康医疗”发展情况进行仿真,并模拟相关政策的干预效果。结果表明:“互联网+健康医疗”在降低潜在医疗需求(PMD)、促进分级诊疗中具有重要作用,保障医疗保险能够较好地嵌入“互联网+健康医疗”就诊流程中对降低PMD最有意义,而降低整体门诊价格对于优化就医结构、促进分级诊疗最为有效。     

基于模仿者动力学模型的外在制度实施过程研究

外在制度在大群体组织中的实施是个复杂的过程.这一过程中,组织成员的理性程度较低而且行为相似,较适合用对称的模仿者动力学模型来分析.外在制度虽具有一定的自实施功能,但实施过程中实施者的主动性和创造性也很重要.借助于模型和案例分析,实施者可在现实中通过适当操作来控制实施环境,增强外在制度的实施效果.     

时间贝叶斯网络及其概率推理

针对贝叶斯网络应用中出现的循环和动态问题,研究贝叶斯网络的时间扩展.给出了时间贝叶斯网络的定义;探讨了时间贝叶斯网络中环的存在合理性判断问题;给出了时间贝叶斯网络的概率推理算法,应用示例说明了方法的可行性.     

Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning,Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks

Global games of regime change—coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attack it—have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks, bank runs, debt crises, and political change. We extend the static benchmark examined in the literature by allowing agents to take actions in many periods and to learn about the underlying fundamentals over time. We first provide a simple recursive algorithm for the characterization of monotone equilibria. We then show how the interaction of the knowledge that the regime survived past attacks with the arrival of information over time, or with changes in fundamentals, leads to interesting equilibrium properties. First, multiplicity may obtain under the same conditions on exogenous information that guarantee uniqueness in the static benchmark. Second, fundamentals may predict the eventual fate of the regime but not the timing or the number of attacks. Finally, equilibrium dynamics can alternate between phases of tranquility—where no attack is possible—and phases of distress—where a large attack can occur—even without changes in fundamentals.