Of what use are tests of significance and tests of hypothesis

This paper discusses the role of significance testing, in contrast to hypothesis testing. It takes the view that the two processes must be differentiated because they are in fact different even though they possess some common mathematical features. A supporting view of significance testing is presented. Difficulties and obscurities are discussed.     

语言测试研究的新视角：批判语言测试

长期以来，语言测试工作者研究的核心是如何提高测试的信度与效度，以客观、精确地测量考生的语言能力。语言测试尤其是大规模高风险语言测试带来的社会影响，很难由改良测试本身来解决。批判语言测试 (Critical Language Testing) 的提出把语言测试置于更广阔的社会政治语境中，对测试后效 (consequences) 的反思不再局限于反拨效应 (washback)，而是重新审视测试中渗透的权力与控制，测试所具有的社会价值、政治功能等。     

Non-linear models 1

This is the first application of a new method for testing stationary random point processes. Consider the class of all stationary ergodic point processes on the real line with arbitrary dependences among the inter–point distances (spacing).The hypothesis is :The observed process φ is a homogeneous Poisson process or more (resp.less) regular than a Poisson process.The sample is the vector of the first n points t₁, …,t_n.There is a close relation between our method for testing and queueing theory: For finding an appropriate test statistic, we observe the behaviour of a single server queue with the input φ.A table of critical values is given.     

Discrimination between the complementary log-log and logistic model for ordinal data

An assessment is made of the number of observations on ordinal data necessary for reasonable power in a significance test of the null hypothesis of a logit model versus an alternative of a complementary log-log and vice versa. The conclusion is that quite modest numbers of observations, e.g. 50-100, are adequate provided that the boundaries of the ordinal scale are suitably defined.     

Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size

This article proposes new methodologies for evaluating economic models’ out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. The study shows that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the power to detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across different window sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models’ forecasting ability.     

Bayesian goodness-of-fit test for censored data

We propose a Bayesian computation and inference method for the Pearson-type chi-squared goodness-of-fit test with right-censored survival data. Our test statistic is derived from the classical Pearson chi-squared test using the differences between the observed and expected counts in the partitioned bins. In the Bayesian paradigm, we generate posterior samples of the model parameter using the Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure. By replacing the maximum likelihood estimator in the quadratic form with a random observation from the posterior distribution of the model parameter, we can easily construct a chi-squared test statistic. The degrees of freedom of the test equal the number of bins and thus is independent of the dimensionality of the underlying parameter vector. The test statistic recovers the conventional Pearson-type chi-squared structure. Moreover, the proposed algorithm circumvents the burden of evaluating the Fisher information matrix, its inverse and the rank of the variance–covariance matrix. We examine the proposed model diagnostic method using simulation studies and illustrate it with a real data set from a prostate cancer study.     

Bad Probability,Good Statistics,and Group Testing for Binomial Estimation

This article examines some improperly stated but often used textbook probability problems. Moving from a probabilistic to a statistical setting provides insight into group testing (i.e., observing only whether one or more of a group responds and not the response of each individual). Exact methods are used to construct tables showing (i) that group testing n times to estimate p can be more efficient than n individual tests even for small n and large p, (ii) optimal grouping strategies for various (n, p) combinations, and (iii) the efficiencies and biases achieved.     

Local information and the design of sequential hypothesis tests

Various results on sequential hypotheses testing are reviewed. Optimal stopping rules are related to a local measure of statistical information. In some cases, local information can be approximated by L-numbers discovered by Lorden, and simple rules based on these approximations are asymptotically optimal to better order than the cost for a single observation.     

语言行为模式与语言测试

建立语言行为模式的必要性现已被语言测试领域的一些研究者所承认。文章评价了现有的几种行为模式,并提出了在语言测试中,影响语言行为的因素的模式。     

论科学观察活动的主体性

着重对科学观察活动进行了剖析,揭示了科学观察活动的主体性。科学观察活动是主体积极参与和构建观察对象的过程,难免具有可错性、局限性和不确定性。所以,作为检验科学理论的实践标准不能局限于科学观察和科学实验,科学理论还必须接受生产和生活实践的广泛检验。