Optimal sampling for repeated binary measurements

The authors consider the optimal design of sampling schedules for binary sequence data. They propose an approach which allows a variety of goals to be reflected in the utility function by including deterministic sampling cost, a term related to prediction, and if relevant, a term related to learning about a treatment effect To this end, they use a nonparametric probability model relying on a minimal number of assumptions. They show how their assumption of partial exchangeability for the binary sequence of data allows the sampling distribution to be written as a mixture of homogeneous Markov chains of order k. The implementation follows the approach of Quintana & Müller (2004), which uses a Dirichlet process prior for the mixture.     

时间如何前进——进化论随笔

中国古代"与时偕行"、"与时俱化"的观念,以取法天地四时的运行为基准,是一种四时循环论的变化观.我党提出的"与时俱进"思想的含义,是随着时代的前进而前进,和随着时代的变化而变化,体现了鲜明的时代创新精神,它的哲学基础是科学进化论.这一特征在语词上通过一个"进"字表达出来.虽然"与时俱进"和"与时俱化"只有一字之差,却体现了本质的超越.同时,这一表述通过对中国古代<易经>、<庄子>等经典的吸收,丰富了自身的思想内涵,也建立,了联接传统与现代的一道桥梁.当然,由于现代时间观念的一维性质,使得人们在批驳"直线进化论"的同时,易于陷入"时间进化论",而时间进化论实际上也是一种直线进化论,这也是需要警醒的.     

论《所罗门之歌》中的布鲁斯美学

布鲁斯是由美国黑人创造的音乐流派。美国黑人女作家托尼.莫里森用文字来吟唱布鲁斯,其小说《所罗门之歌》中一首古老的布鲁斯歌曲贯穿全文始终,整部小说洋溢着浓厚的布鲁斯美学。本文从布鲁斯美学的角度探讨黑人的身份认同、文化传统的回归。     

建筑与城市设计中的时间观

时间与形式、功能、空间四要素完备才能组成一个完整的建筑 ,运用时间设计的概念 ,分析和解决当今建筑界和城市规划出现的问题是现实的需要     

Model Diagnostics for Remote Access Regression Servers

To protect public-use microdata, one approach is not to allow users access to the microdata. Instead, users submit analyses to a remote computer that reports back basic output from the fitted model, such as coefficients and standard errors. To be most useful, this remote server also should provide some way for users to check the fit of their models, without disclosing actual data values. This paper discusses regression diagnostics for remote servers. The proposal is to release synthetic diagnostics—i.e. simulated values of residuals and dependent and independent variables–constructed to mimic the relationships among the real-data residuals and independent variables. Using simulations, it is shown that the proposed synthetic diagnostics can reveal model inadequacies without substantial increase in the risk of disclosures. This approach also can be used to develop remote server diagnostics for generalized linear models.     

图式理论、学习策略与大学英语口语教学

本研究采用定量分析的方法,对84名天水师范学院非英语专业的学生的口语水平进行测试。根据图式理论,口语任务分为有关键词及句型提示类和无提示类,并对被试的学习策略使用情况做了调查,结果发现,口语任务有提示与无提示对学生的口语成绩有显著影响,这说明图式理论完全适用于大学英语口语教学。     

对外文化教学中的主体意识略论

在一般的人类实践活动中,主体与客体的关系往往是主动与被动、决定与被决定的关系。但在对外文化教学实践活动中,由于教者与学者都是主体,原来的主体与客体之间的主动与被动、决定与被决定关系变成了第一主体与第二主体之间的平行互动、共生互决关系。在目前第二主体及其意识还未被关注的状况下,我们尤其要提倡以第二主体为中心的人本主义教育思想与教学方法,充分考虑和尊重作为第二主体即外籍学生的学习动机、感情倾向和价值观。     

STTEPping in the right direction? Western classical music in an orchestral programme for disadvantaged African youth

This article looks at STTEP, an outreach project currently housed at the University of Pretoria, which concentrates on the teaching of western orchestral instruments, plus background areas such as music theory, to disadvantaged children and youth from a variety of townships around Pretoria, South Africa. STTEP’s direction can well be described as ‘right’ – pupils are already surrounded by all kinds of global phenomena, and their formal music studies in western classical music are not making them forget their roots. In fact, the contrary has been found to be the case and some interesting cultural fusions are already seen – always a sign of a living culture.     

局部理性市场的预期分析

在一个发育不完善、组织效率较低的商品或资本市场中,不同的市场主体拥有不同信息并产生预期模式的差异,由于交易者之间的信息屏障在短期内无法有效消除,导致预期的异质化长期存在并使市场仅具有局部理性.局部理性市场价格的稳定性取决于理性投机与非理性交易行为的力量对比,而不成熟市场经常显现的过度波动性则往往是理性投机处于弱势的表现.     

新微派建筑初探

文章探讨了新徽派建筑的类型和特征,对新徽派建筑的作品进行了评析。分析了20世纪80年代以来新徽派建筑的四条主要探索途径及成因,着重论述了它推陈出新的内涵和美学特征以及对新地方风格建筑探索的启示意义。