主审法官负责制的实现条件及当前应解决的问题

主审法官负责制是人民法院为实现司法公正解决司法独立问题所进行的内部结构性改革,在推行时须注意五大实现条件和解决好当前存在的三大问题。在实现条件上,要求主审法官有较高的业务素质和良好的政治道德素质,为此,应搞好法官的选任工作,在此基础上,建立完善的法官任职保障、物质保障制度和落实主审法官职务上的权利和义务。而须解决的三大问题是,当前应对现有法官队伍进行选拔淘汰并合理分流,对已任或新任法官加强培养工作,增强其业务技能,对行政化的审判业务运作机制应予以消除,实现主审法官独立办案。     

Economic Determinants of Net International Migration in Western Europe

This paper aims to estimate theinfluence of economic determinants on netinternational migration in Western Europe inthe period 1960–1998. Net migration rates(i.e., population growth minus natural increase,divided by the midyear population) constitutethe dependent variable. The economicdeterminants used in this study are GDP percapita, unemployment, and average educationallevel (amount of human capital) of thepopulation. Time series regression models havebeen used in country-specific analyses. Inaddition, a pooled cross-sectional time seriesanalysis has been made. The analyses suggestthat GDP per capita has a positive effect andunemployment a negative effect on a country'snet international migration.     

An affine‐invariant multivariate sign test for cluster correlated data

The author presents a multivariate location model for cluster correlated observations. He proposes an affine‐invariant multivariate sign statistic for testing the value of the location parameter. His statistic is an adaptation of that proposed by Randles (2000). The author shows, under very mild conditions, that his test statistic is asymptotically distributed as a chi‐squared random variable under the null hypothesis. In particular, the test can be used for skewed populations. In the context of a general multivariate normal model, the author obtains values of his test's Pitman asymptotic efficiency relative to another test based on the overall average. He shows that there is an improvement in the relative performance of the new test as soon as intra‐cluster correlation is present Even in the univariate case, the new test can be very competitive for Gaussian data. Furthermore, the statistic is easy to compute, even for large dimensional data. The author shows through simulations that his test performs well compared to the average‐based test. He illustrates its use with real data.     

Sport and globalization: transnational dimensions

Abstract The aims of this special issue are to both raise the social scientific status of sport and to advance understanding of transnational processes through the role of sport in global change. The Introduction argues that sport, like globalization, can be understood in transdisciplinary terms, and the papers included contributions informed by sociology, anthropology, political sciences and history. As well as placing the issue in the context of recent studies of sport and globalization, the Introduction outlines the seven papers. Placed together they move from analyses of broader globalizing and multi‐sport issues towards consideration of how transnational processes impact upon individual sports – with examples from cricket, baseball and association football – ending with regional and national dimensions.     

经济预测中的Monte Carlo模拟及方差控制——以国际石油价格预测为例

从MDnte Carlo模拟的实现过程入手，首先通过对Monte Carlo方法原理的阐述来介绍该种方法。进一步结合具体的实例通过计算机进行模拟来解释Monte Carlo方法的具体实现过程。重点讨论在选择合理的数据生成过程的前提下，如何在Monte Carlo方法中减少模拟方差，从而提高估计精度，更好地应用这种方法来进行经济预测。     

实现以人为本的的图书馆服务理念

"用户至上,服务第一"是图书馆的核心价值观,图书馆的服务质量直接影响着图书馆工作的发展。本文介绍了新时期图书馆读者服务工作的特征,探讨了图书馆的以人为本、个性化服务内容和服务方式。     

State‐led transnationalism and migration: reaching out to the Argentine community in Spain

Abstract This article focuses on when and how states develop transnational policies. It presents a case study of a relatively small emigrant community, whose departure was not simply caused by poverty or crisis, but most recently by an economic and political debacle that questioned people's values and expectations. I focus on the state side of the equation and identify a shift in Argentina's policy after 2003, though also show how such policies came out of a long history of state intervention in population and migration and are now related to human rights concerns and the unfinished process of democratic consolidation. I argue that the state initiates political transnationalism, not migrants, and highlight the importance of some relatively unexplored factors in the understanding of the motivation, intensity and impact of the state's involvement, such as the characteristics of the emigrant community, the existence of specific political projects, the role of some domestic actors and processes, and the nature of international agreements.     

Estimation of dependence between paired correlated failure times in the presence of covariate measurement error

Summary. In many biomedical studies, covariates are subject to measurement error. Although it is well known that the regression coefficients estimators can be substantially biased if the measurement error is not accommodated, there has been little study of the effect of covariate measurement error on the estimation of the dependence between bivariate failure times. We show that the dependence parameter estimator in the Clayton–Oakes model can be considerably biased if the measurement error in the covariate is not accommodated. In contrast with the typical bias towards the null for marginal regression coefficients, the dependence parameter can be biased in either direction. We introduce a bias reduction technique for the bivariate survival function in copula models while assuming an additive measurement error model and replicated measurement for the covariates, and we study the large and small sample properties of the dependence parameter estimator proposed.     

Conditional Likelihood Estimators for Hidden Markov Models and Stochastic Volatility Models

ABSTRACT.  This paper develops a new contrast process for parametric inference of general hidden Markov models, when the hidden chain has a non-compact state space. This contrast is based on the conditional likelihood approach, often used for ARCH-type models. We prove the strong consistency of the conditional likelihood estimators under appropriate conditions. The method is applied to the Kalman filter (for which this contrast and the exact likelihood lead to asymptotically equivalent estimators) and to the discretely observed stochastic volatility models.     

A bayesian estimator for the dependence function of a bivariate extreme‐value distribution

Any continuous bivariate distribution can be expressed in terms of its margins and a unique copula. In the case of extreme‐value distributions, the copula is characterized by a dependence function while each margin depends on three parameters. The authors propose a Bayesian approach for the simultaneous estimation of the dependence function and the parameters defining the margins. They describe a nonparametric model for the dependence function and a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for the computation of the Bayesian estimator. They show through simulations that their estimator has a smaller mean integrated squared error than classical nonparametric estimators, especially in small samples. They illustrate their approach on a hydrological data set.