考虑交通时间与设备转换时间的跨区域就医调度优化问题

在资源共享时代背景下,跨区域就医可以很好地解决患者日益增长的就医需求与医疗资源紧张的矛盾。本论文以医疗联盟为研究对象,在关键医疗资源共享的前提下,通过患者跨区域就医实现就医诊断延误最小化,以满足患者就医需求。本研究同时考虑了患者跨区域交通时间与基于患者诊断类型的设备转换时间,以最小化患者就医总延迟为目标,分配患者就诊医院及优化患者就诊/检查顺序。针对该问题,论文首次提出以最早交货期原则（EDD rule）为基础,以患者再分配为主导的EDD-ReAss1和EDD-ReAss2启发式算法,结合局部搜索算法以进一步提高就医调度方案的质量,缩短患者诊断/检查等待时间。实验结果表明,新启发式算法EDD-ReAss1和EDD-ReAss2算法性能显著好于EDD,SPT和LPT等调度规则;在较短运算时间内Swap局部搜索算法性能最优。     

共青团围绕党的中心任务而奋斗的百年历程及基本经验

作为党的助手和后备军,中国共产主义青年团紧跟党的步伐,围绕党的中心任务,走过了百年辉煌历程。百年来,共青团坚持党的领导,将党领导团正确的方针政策落到实处;坚持改革,不断增强团围绕党的中心任务而奋斗的能力;教育引导青年,重视青年在革命、建设、改革中的作用,在新民主主义革命时期、社会主义革命和建设时期、改革开放和社会主义现代化建设时期、新时代中国特色社会主义建设时期都作出了重要贡献。未来建设中,共青团要不断突出政治性,增强先进性,保持群众性,巩固、夯实、筑牢其围绕党的中心任务而奋斗的领导基础、政治基础和青年群众基础。     

Dynamic reliability models with conditional proportional hazards

A dynamic approach to the stochastic modelling of reliability systems is further explored. This modelling approach is particularly appropriate for load-sharing, software reliability, and multivariate failure-time models, where component failure characteristics are affected by their degree of use, amount of load, or extent of stresses experienced. This approach incorporates the intuitive notion that when a set of components in a coherent system fail at a certain time, there is a jump from one structure function to another which governs the residual lifetimes of the remaining functioning components, and since the component lifetimes are intrinsically affected by the structure function which they constitute, then at such a failure time there should also be a jump in the stochastic structure of the lifetimes of the remaining components. For such dynamically-modelled systems, the stochastic characteristics of their jump times are studied. These properties of the jump times allow us to obtain the properties of the lifetime of the system. In particular, for a Markov dynamic model, specific expressions for the exact distribution functions of the jump times are obtained for a general coherent system, a parallel system, and a series-parallel system. We derive a new family of distribution functions which describes the distributions of the jump times for a dynamically-modelled system.     

An analytic method for randomized trials with informative censoring: Part 1

Consider a randomized trial in which time to the occurrence of a particular disease, say pneumocystis pneumonia in an AIDS trial or breast cancer in a mammographic screening trial, is the failure time of primary interest. Suppose that time to disease is subject to informative censoring by the minimum of time to death, loss to and end of follow-up. In such a trial, the censoring time is observed for all study subjects, including failures. In the presence of informative censoring, it is not possible to consistently estimate the effect of treatment on time to disease without imposing additional non-identifiable assumptions. The goals of this paper are to specify two non-identifiable assumptions that allow one to test for and estimate an effect of treatment on time to disease in the presence of informative censoring. In a companion paper (Robins, 1995), we provide consistent and reasonably efficient semiparametric estimators for the treatment effect under these assumptions. In this paper we largely restrict attention to testing. We propose tests that, like standard weighted-log-rank tests, are asymptotically distribution-free -level tests under the null hypothesis of no causal effect of treatment on time to disease whenever the censoring and failure distributions are conditionally independent given treatment arm. However, our tests remain asymptotically distribution-free -level tests in the presence of informative censoring provided either of our assumptions are true. In contrast, a weighted log-rank test will be an -level test in the presence of informative censoring only if (1) one of our two non-identifiable assumptions hold, and (2) the distribution of time to censoring is the same in the two treatment arms. We also extend our methods to studies of the effect of a treatment on the evolution over time of the mean of a repeated measures outcome, such as CD-4 count.     

非退化扩散过程极性的充分条件

讨论了多维非退化扩散过程样本轨道的性质,得到了其极性的充分条件     

Estimation for Continuous Branching Processes

The maximum-likelihood estimator for the curved exponential family given by continuous branching processes with immigration is investigated. These processes originated from population biology but also model the dynamics of interest rates and development of the state of technology in economics. It is proved that in contrast to branching processes with discrete space and/or time the MLE gives a unified approach to the inference. In order to include singular subdomains of the parameter space we modify the MLE slightly. Consistency and asymptotic normality for the MLE are considered. Concerning the asymptotic theory of the experiments, all three properties LAQ, LAN, and LAMN occur for different submodels     

A Class of Efficient Non-parametric K-sample Tests for Multivariate Counting Processes with Frailties

A K -sample testing problem is studied for multivariate counting processes with time-dependent frailty. Asymptotic distributions and efficiency of a class of non-parametric test statistics are established for certain local alternatives. The concept of efficiency is to show that for every non-parametric test in this class, there is a parametric submodel for which the optimal test has the same asymptotic power as the non-parametric one. The theory is applied to analyse a diabetic retinopathy study data set. A simulation study is also presented to illustrate the theory     

Circuit optimization via sequential computer experiments: design of an output buffer

In electrical engineering, circuit designs are now often optimized via circuit simulation computer models. Typically, many response variables characterize the circuit's performance. Each response is a function of many input variables, including factors that can be set in the engineering design and noise factors representing manufacturing conditions. We describe a modelling approach which is appropriate for the simulator's deterministic input–output relationships. Non-linearities and interactions are identified without explicit assumptions about the functional form. These models lead to predictors to guide the reduction of the ranges of the designable factors in a sequence of experiments. Ultimately, the predictors are used to optimize the engineering design. We also show how a visualization of the fitted relationships facilitates an understanding of the engineering trade-offs between responses. The example used to demonstrate these methods, the design of a buffer circuit, has multiple targets for the responses, representing different trade-offs between the key performance measures.     

Curved Chaotic Map Time Series Models and Their Stochastic Reversals

This paper considers two types of chaotic map time series models, including the well-known tent, logistic and binary-shift maps as special cases; these are called curved tent and curved binary families. Deterministic behaviour is investigated by invariant distributions, Lyapunov exponents, and by serial dependency. Stochastic time reversal of the families is shown to produce models which have a broader range of stochastic and chaotic properties than their deterministic counterparts. The marginal distributions may have concentrations and restricted supports and are shown to be a non-standard class of invariant distribution. Dependenc y is generally weaker with the reversed stochastic models. The work gives a broad statistical account of deterministic and stochastically reversed map models, such as are emerging in random number generation, communica tion systems and cryptography     

NFCAPP系统中工序图的生成

主要探讨了NFCAPP系统中工序图生成的原理、方法、工序图数据的存贮结构及工序图的输出.