论传教士对近代青海的认知

近代传教士有关青海地区的调查资料,不仅详尽实录了青海的地势、山川、民族、语言等内容,而且也记述了基督教在青海地区传教的历史和教会活动的情况,从中可以窥知近代传教士在青海地区传教的策略或方针.     

Using Lean Six Sigma to improve mobile order fulfilment process in a telecom service sector

This study proposes and follows a specific and systematic framework for implementing Lean Six Sigma (LSS) methodology in a telecom company in order to improve customer satisfaction by minimizing the company’s response time to customer requirements. The goal of this study was achieved by utilizing several LSS tools under five phases of the DMAIC methodology. Unlike previous studies in the telecom sector that used only qualitative method, in this study, both qualitative and quantitative methods were utilized to draw meaningful conclusions. As a result of the implementation of the LSS methodology, the average order fulfilment lead time for sales orders (SO) and value-added service (VAS) orders was reduced from 10.3 to 5.9 days and from 1.5 to 0.5 days, respectively. The reduction in lead time resulted in an increase in the sigma level for SO and VAS orders from 0.44 to 1.26 and from 0.73 to 2.66, respectively. These improvements were expected to lead to a financial benefit in savings of over $600,000 per year in operational costs, enhancements to customer experience and an increase in revenue generating opportunities. Moreover, this article enriches the existing literature on the application of LSS concept in the service industry, and helps the company to speed up the response to customer requirements.     

基于股价预测的泛证券投资组合策略

本文基于期望效用最大化和L₁-中位数估计研究了在线投资组合选择问题。与EG（Exponential Gradient）策略仅利用单期价格信息估计价格趋势不同,本文将利用多期价格信息估计价格趋势,以提高在线策略的性能。首先,基于多期价格数据,利用L₁-中位数估计得到预期价格趋势。然后,通过期望效用最大化,提出一个新的具有线型时间复杂度的在线策略,EGLM（Exponential Gradient via L₁-Median）。并通过相对熵函数定义资产权重向量的距离,进而证明了EGLM策略具有泛证券投资组合性质。最后,利用国内外6个证券市场的历史数据进行实证分析,结果表明相较于UP（Universal Portfolio）策略和EG策略,EGLM策略有更好的竞争性能。     

多渠道医疗门诊挂号的时间策略研究

现阶段多种门诊挂号方式并存时,根据患者特性制定不同的等待时间策略尤为重要。本文考虑门诊挂号的三种渠道：直接排队挂号渠道、电话预约挂号渠道与O2O预约挂号渠道。在价格外生前提下,综合考虑患者的渠道偏好程度、时间敏感性与提前支付敏感性,基于效用理论构建患者的渠道选择模型。根据该模型推导得出不同市场条件下医院的需求,医院再据此制定患者的等待时间策略以达到利润最大化的目的。研究发现：当医院仅开通单一挂号渠道时,若患者的时间敏感度越大、渠道偏好程度越小,等待时间均越小;开通某两种挂号渠道时,还需考虑患者对两种渠道的偏好比例,偏好某种渠道的患者比例增加,选择该渠道的患者等待时间增加,选择另一渠道的患者等待时间减小;同时开通三种渠道时,最偏好某渠道的患者比例越大,选择该渠道的患者的等待时间也越大;在所有情况下,患者对提前支付的敏感度均不影响最优等待时间的制定。     

FEPA-金融时间序列自适应组合预测模型

本文报告一种金融时间序列预测的信号分析、信息融合与智能计算组合模型,简称FEPA,由针对金融时间序列（FTS）信号分析的经验模态分解（EMD）、用于数据降维的主成分分析（PCA）和用于非线性建模的人工神经网络（ANN）三部分组成。该模型首先应用滑动窗口截取原始金融时间序列最近期数据集,应用EMD分解算法把数据集分解成不同尺度的本征模态函数（IMF）,然后通过主成分分析将分解后的数据降维,提取最有信息量的特征;然后将这些特征输入到神经网络进行组合预测。本文提出的组合预测模型FEPA是基于分解-提优-合成的信息融合思想,有效提高了预测可靠性。其创新点在于：1）首次给出了EMD算法的结构化表达,提供了今后融合更多信息的算法接口;2）通过多步长预测输出深入研究EMD分解的有效信息结构;3）通过切换到更细时间框架来处理EMD的端点效应,并探索了两级时间框架下的预测效果;4）给出了金融时间序列组合预测模型的一般性架构,具有可升级性和可扩展性。并且通过滑动窗口EMD使得实证更能切近实际。通过在沪深300股指和澳大利亚股指上的实证,结果表明FEPA预测模型在沪深300股指日线和15分钟线上的预测命中率高达78%和82%,在澳大利亚股指日线上也达到了74%的命中率,经比较,明显高于文献中常见的5种模型。     

实物资金流量表的预测方法研究

资金流量表是国民经济核算体系中的重要组成部分。然而,由于在编制过程中需要采集大量的数据,通常情况下,很多国家的资金流量表都会有较长时间的滞后。在编制实物资金流量表的延长表时,已有方法通常是基于基期与预测期交易收支结构保持不变的假定条件。然而,经济结构发生显著变化时,该类方法就会失效。基于上述问题,研究弱化模型的假设条件,并提出了新的实物资金流量表预测方法( 简称 FPTF方法)。根据表中元素必须满足的约束条件,该方法通过建立数学模型解除约束,其次基于历史数据的动态趋势,采用适当的时间序列分析方法来预测目标年份的实物资金流量表。通过仿真分析,验证了所提方法的有效性和稳定性。此外,基于中国1992年～2014 年的实物资金流量表数据进行实例分析,取得了满意的分析结果。     

The Good Grandparent: Perspectives of Young Adults

As life expectancy increases, the role of grandparent has increased in duration and is continually adapting as families change in structure, function and form. Across the past several decades, researchers have examined grandparenting styles, finding some consistency as well as the emergence of newer styles, and evidence that grandparenting styles are related to the age and gender of both the grandparents and the grandchildren. In this study, we investigated young adults’ perceptions of grandparenting quality. University Students (N?=?470) from a Midwestern university responded to an online survey that asked them to evaluate the quality of their grandparents grandparenting now and at two retrospective points in time, childhood and adolescence. We hypothesized that the grandparents' performance of multiple styles of their role would be related to grandparenting quality. In addition, we expected that preferred grandparental roles would vary in relation to grandchildren's gender. The results of regression analysis indicated that, although grandparenting quality tended to decline across the respondents' developmental stages, higher ratings at an earlier stage were related to higher ratings at the latter two stages. Further, grandsons preferred grandparents who performed as supporters and advisors, whereas granddaughters preferred grandparents who functioned as supporter and friend. Overall, grandmothers were likely to be the more significant grandparent. Continual research on both grandchildren and grandparents will be needed to chronicle the development of the grandparental role in changing times.     

现代性时间问题初探

通过对现代、现代性概念的词源考察,分析了蕴含在其中的时间意识.在对启蒙现代性、审美现代性的产生及类型的考察的基础上,分析了存在于两者之间与生俱来的悖论,指出产生这种悖论的深层原因,并分析了一些现代、后现代之间存在的时间概念.     

解放战争时期党在解放区的土地政策探析

解放战争时期中国共产党在解放区的土地政策,是我们党的一项重要政策.根据当时的背景变化,党在解放区的土地政策经历了一个历史的演变过程,在中国革命和建设中做出了巨大历史贡献.     

A copula-based Markov chain model for the analysis of binary longitudinal data

A fully parametric first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model is proposed to analyse binary longitudinal data. By using a discretized version of a copula, the modelling approach allows one to construct separate models for the marginal response and for the dependence between adjacent responses. In particular, the transition model that is focused on discretizes the Gaussian copula in such a way that the marginal is a Bernoulli distribution. A probit link is used to take into account concomitant information in the behaviour of the underlying marginal distribution. Fixed and time-varying covariates can be included in the model. The method is simple and is a natural extension of the AR(1) model for Gaussian series. Since the approach put forward is likelihood-based, it allows interpretations and inferences to be made that are not possible with semi-parametric approaches such as those based on generalized estimating equations. Data from a study designed to reduce the exposure of children to the sun are used to illustrate the methods.