民国时期北京商业整体布局与三类商业街区

民国时期北京古都商业街以大型商业街、常规商业街、专业商业街的形态存在，具有强烈的时代印记。商业街的结构因百货业态的出现而向完善方向迈进。以个人技艺为动力的民族商业给商业街增添了活力，外国政治势力破坏了传统的商业街繁荣气氛。     

The Past in the Present. Lessons on Semiotics of History from George H. Mead and Boris A. Uspensky

This article examines the parallels between George H. Mead's theory of time and Boris A. Uspensky's semiotics of history, looking for implications relevant to the symbolic interactionist theory of historical processes. It suggests that Mead's theory of time and theory of communication hold important implications for semiotic analysis of the historical dimension of sociocultural phenomena. A further aim is to link the symbolic interactionist tradition of the Chicago school with the Tartu school and its semiotics of history. This would fuel the further development of both theoretical orientations.     

Pooled Cross-Sectional and Time Series Data: A Survey of Current Statistical Methodology

A data base that provides a multivariate statistical history for each of a number of individual entities is called a pooled cross-sectional and time series data base in the econometrics literature. In marketing and survey literature the terms panel data or longitudinal data are often used. In management science a convenient term might be management data base. Such a data base provides a particularly rich environment for statistical analysis. This article reviews methods for estimating multivariate relationships particular to each individual entity and for summarizing these relationships for a number of individuals. Inference to a larger population when the data base is viewed as a sample is also considered.     

A Semiparametric Approach for Accelerated Failure Time Models with Covariates Subject to Measurement Error

There are relatively few discussions about measurement error in the accelerated failure time (AFT) model, particularly for the semiparametric AFT model. In this article, we propose an adjusted estimation procedure for the semiparametric AFT model with covariates subject to measurement error, based on the profile likelihood approach and simulation and exploration (SIMEX) method. The simulation studies show that the proposed semiparametric SIMEX approach performs well. The proposed approach is applied to a coronary heart disease dataset from the Busselton Health study for illustration.     

First-exit times for compound poisson processes for some types of positive and negative jumps

We consider the one-sided and the two-sided first-exit problem for a compound Poisson process with linear deterministic decrease between positive and negative jumps. This process (X(t)) _t≥0 occurs as the workload process of a single-server queueing system with random workload removal, which we denote by M/G _u /G _d /1, where G _u (G _d ) stands for the distribution of the upward (downward) jumps; other applications are to cash management, dams, and several related fields. Under various conditions on G _u and G _d (assuming e.g. that one of them is hyperexponential, Erlang or Coxian), we derive the joint distribution of τ _y =inf{t≥0|X(t)?(0,y)}, y>0, and X(τ _y ) as well as that of T=inf{t≥0|X(t)≤0} and X(T). We also determine the distribution of sup{X(t)|0≤t≤T}.     

Estimation of firm-specific technological bias,technical change and total factor productivity growth: a dual approach

This paper deals with modeling firm-specific technical change (TC), and technological biases (inputs and scale) in estimating total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Several dual parametric econometric models are used for this purpose. We examine robustness of TFP growth and TC among competing models. These models include the traditional time trend (TT) model and the general index (GI) model. The TT and the GI models are generalized to accommodate firm-specific TC and technological bias (in inputs and output). Both nested and non-nested tests are used to select the appropriate models. Firm-level panel data from the Japanese chemical industry during 1968- 1987 is used as an application.     

一种三维复杂介质波前时间的高精度数值算法

基于水平集的波前扩展算法,如FMM(Fast Marching Method)、GMM(Group Marching Method)，作为一类计算复杂介质波前时间的有效方法而被广泛使用。该类算法都是基于程函方程的有限差分格式来计算波传播时间，在介质离散单元尺寸较大的情况下，计算精度较低。为提高波前时间的计算精度，在一个长方体单元内，将任意点的波传播时间用已知节点上波前时间的插值函数表示，然后根据Fermat原理确定未知节点上的波前时间，再结合高效率的GMM算法，形成了一种计算三维复杂介质波前时间的有效算法。数值模拟实验表明，与原GMM算法相比，该算法大大提高了波前时间的计算精度，同时具有很强的稳定性和适应性。     

Generalized RCINAR(1) Process with Signed Thinning Operator

A generalized random coefficient first-order integer-valued autoregressive process with signed thinning operator is introduced, this kind of process is appropriate for modeling negative integer-valued time series. Strict stationarity and ergodicity of process are established. Estimators of the parameters of interest are derived and their properties are studied via simulation. At last, we use bootstrap method in the real data analysis.     

Estimation with right‐censored observations under a semi‐Markov model

The semi‐Markov process often provides a better framework than the classical Markov process for the analysis of events with multiple states. The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we show that in the presence of right censoring, when the right end‐point of the support of the censoring time is strictly less than the right end‐point of the support of the semi‐Markov kernel, the transition probability of the semi‐Markov process is nonidentifiable, and the estimators proposed in the literature are inconsistent in general. We derive the set of all attainable values for the transition probability based on the censored data, and we propose a nonparametric inference procedure for the transition probability using this set. Second, the conventional approach to constructing confidence bands is not applicable for the semi‐Markov kernel and the sojourn time distribution. We propose new perturbation resampling methods to construct these confidence bands. Different weights and transformations are explored in the construction. We use simulation to examine our proposals and illustrate them with hospitalization data from a recent cancer survivor study. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 237–256; 2013 © 2013 Statistical Society of Canada     

《典论·论文》创作时间之我见

曹丕《典论·论文》的写作时间有建安十六年、太子时期、黄初初年前后三说。分析文献及史实,可以发现它的写作时间应该在太子时期,因其创作与《与吴质书》、《与杨德祖书》关系密切,而《隋书·经籍志》对当时书籍存世的记载对确定该文的创作时间下限也有着不可忽视的作用。经过史实研究,可以精确地将《典记·论文》创作时间定位于建安二十二年(217)年十月至建安二十三(218)年二月三日之间。