Robust Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects modeling of time to positivity in tuberculosis trials

Early phase 2 tuberculosis (TB) trials are conducted to characterize the early bactericidal activity (EBA) of anti‐TB drugs. The EBA of anti‐TB drugs has conventionally been calculated as the rate of decline in colony forming unit (CFU) count during the first 14 days of treatment. The measurement of CFU count, however, is expensive and prone to contamination. Alternatively to CFU count, time to positivity (TTP), which is a potential biomarker for long‐term efficacy of anti‐TB drugs, can be used to characterize EBA. The current Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects (NLME) regression model for TTP data, however, lacks robustness to gross outliers that often are present in the data. The conventional way of handling such outliers involves their identification by visual inspection and subsequent exclusion from the analysis. However, this process can be questioned because of its subjective nature. For this reason, we fitted robust versions of the Bayesian nonlinear mixed‐effects regression model to a wide range of TTP datasets. The performance of the explored models was assessed through model comparison statistics and a simulation study. We conclude that fitting a robust model to TTP data obviates the need for explicit identification and subsequent “deletion” of outliers but ensures that gross outliers exert no undue influence on model fits. We recommend that the current practice of fitting conventional normal theory models be abandoned in favor of fitting robust models to TTP data.     

The duty to care and the need to split

This paper arises out of psychoanalytically oriented consultancy to teams of staff in the helping professions where there is a statutory 'duty to care'. It takes as its premise the seemingly paradoxical hypothesis that workers may need to split off part of their emotional experience in order to preserve their own mental health and provide reliable services to their clients. I argue that while a professional 'duty to care' requires us to be emotionally 'in touch', the demands of our clients together with the demands of the institutional response to the 'duty to care' cause us to split off parts of our awareness. I also argue that provided the splitting does not become extreme we are doing no more or less than the rest of society. In other words, there is a degree of 'normal splitting' which numbs our awareness of danger and destructiveness and seeks to protect us from too much anxiety and pain. Yet if professional workers are charged with the responsibility of assessing risk and acting accordingly for the protection of all concerned they need ways of being 'in touch' (re-integrating the splits) for some or enough of the time. Finally, I will describe ways of being 'in touch', illustrating the difficulty and the pain of re-integrating the splits and some of the insights that can arise out of this work with examples from my consultancy work.     

Anova and minque type of estimators for the one-way random effects model

The one-way random effects model with unequal variances and unequal sample sizes is considered. Estimation of the variances, variance of a single observation (total variance), and the standard error of the unweighted mean are considered. Precision of the Analysis of Variance and Unweighted Sums of Squares type of estimators and the Minimum Norm Quadratic Unbiased Estimators with a priori weights are examined.     

中国电信业全要素生产率及发展阶段差异研究

选用基于非参数Malmquist指数法对2001—2010年期间中国电信业的全要素生产率(TFP)进行测算和分解,重点研究了中国电信业TFP的构成及其不同发展阶段的差异,同时进行了横向对比研究,尝试探索了电信业TFP变动的时序特征,揭示了差异演变的内在规律和机制,并进一步讨论了改革的成效及电信业不同发展阶段的差异性。     

可换群的结构

本文通过研究完整子半群来确定可换群的结构，主要结果：Ⅰ若T是可换群G的完整子半群，则T是阿基米德的当且仅当T的极大完整子半群．ⅡG是可换群，T∈Γ（G），则T是特殊的当且仅当，Ⅲ可换群G∈Jω∩Js，若{ST1，ST2…，STr}，是一个Δ的一个浅显序子集，则以下等价：（1）=E0（2）{T1，T2，…，Tn}是Γ（G）的一个极大浅显序子集.（3）Γ（G）的每一条根包含唯一的Ti.（4）G是每一个拯小完整子半群包含唯一的STi.     

中国全要素农田水利效率的地区差异和门槛效应研究

农田水利作为我国农业基础设施投资的重要组成部分,对农业经济增长及农民增收具有重要影响。基于DEA在全要素生产的框架,构建全面衡量我国农田水利效率的指标——全要素农田水利效率,选取2001—2015年省级面板数据,运用DEA Malmquist方法测算31个省的全要素农田水利效率,并对不同区域农田水利效率进行对比分析。研究结果表明我国全要素农田水利效率存在明显地区差异,东北地区效率最高、超过农业大省聚集的华东和华中地区;全要素农田水利效率与区域经济发展水平存在不完全匹配现象,主要与农田水利效率及影响因素之间的非线性关系有关。基于农田水利效率省际差异,采用门槛回归模型检验影响全要素农田水利效率的门槛特征,研究结果显示：农村经济发展水平对农田水利全要素生产率存在显著的收敛门槛效应、机械动力投入对农田水利全要素生产率存在明显的加速门槛效应。     

宁波市技术引进与技术进步关系的实证研究

技术引进作为国际技术扩散的最为直接的途径,是一个地区技术进步的重要外部来源。文章选用全要素生产率（TFP）、人均产出率（Y）、资金产出率（YK）三个指标来反映技术进步变量（TP）,建立技术引进和当地研发与上述变量的关系模型,并以宁波市12个行业为样本,构成2002-2006年的面板数据,进行实证检验。得出的主要结论是：技术引进和当地研发对宁波的技术进步存在着正向影响,但相比之下,当地研发的影响程度要高于技术引进的影响程度。     

浅析全概率公式的应用

归蚋总结全概率公式的理解方法、求解问题的分析方法、解题步骤以及应用此公式时应注意的事项等几点教学体会,旨在使学生能够真正理解和掌握全概率公式,从而更好地解决这类实际问题。     

山野菜一点红总多酚提取工艺的研究

对山野菜一点红总多酚的提取影响因素进行了研究,并对提取工艺参数进行了正交优化,试验结果表明山野菜一点红总多酚提取的最佳工艺条件应为液料比为15：1,乙醇浓度为60％,浸体温度为80℃,浸提时间为1h,这种提取工艺可使一点红总多酚的提取率达到94．2％。     

Comparison of the characteristics of homes for older people in Slovenia with Goffman's concept of the total institution

The past concepts of life and work in homes for older people in Slovenia are no longer adequate to meet the needs, wishes and requirements of their current users. One of the basic premises, relying on Goffman's concept of the total institution, is that the first and foremost characteristic of homes for older people is that they are institutions. The theoretical starting point, namely that Goffman's concept of the total institution is ideal-typical, was corroborated by an investigation of the presence of elements of the total institution in Slovenian homes for older people, proving that not all features of the total institution can be found in any chosen empirical selection of institutions, with the data showing that those characteristics which are present do not exist in the ideal, that is in the most pronounced form. The homes’ users are given consideration, their personnel are adapting to their needs and requirements, even though this occurs within the functioning of an institution whose aims, i.e. to care for a large number of people living in one place, make life in such an institution subordinated to rules, along with the bureaucratisation and routinisation of services.