全球化与东亚金融危机

全球化是当今世界不可阻挡的潮流和趋势 ,也是国际学术界关注的热点题域。从全球化的视野出发来观照东亚金融危机 ,可以看出东亚金融危机实质上既是全球化所产生的负面影响的危机、全球化带来的国际分工体系的危机、是全球化过程中世界经济潜在危机的大爆发 ;也是东亚模式本身缺陷的危机、有关国家政策失误的危机、是一种发展危机。东亚金融危机使东亚国家遭受沉重打击 ,但不能借此否定“东亚发展模式”和“东亚奇迹”的存在     

传统资产定价理论和资产交易理论研究

传统的资产定价理论和资产交易理论都有一个基本假设:人是理性的。然而,金融市场中大量存在的种种"异常",对基于理性假设之上的经典金融理论提出了挑战。通过回顾传统的资产定价理论和资产交易理论,可以看到建立一种标准的行为模型,应该是金融理论的下一个主要方面所在,该标准行为模型应该既能表达有限理性,又能兼容理性行为。     

Estimation of a Change Point in a Hazard Function Based on Censored Data

The hazard function plays an important role in reliability or survival studies since it describes the instantaneous risk of failure of items at a time point, given that they have not failed before. In some real life applications, abrupt changes in the hazard function are observed due to overhauls, major operations or specific maintenance activities. In such situations it is of interest to detect the location where such a change occurs and estimate the size of the change. In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a single change point in a piecewise constant hazard function when the observed variables are subject to random censoring. We suggest an estimation procedure that is based on certain structural properties and on least squares ideas. A simulation study is carried out to compare the performance of this estimator with two estimators available in the literature: an estimator based on a functional of the Nelson-Aalen estimator and a maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed least squares estimator tums out to be less biased than the other two estimators, but has a larger variance. We illustrate the estimation method on some real data sets.     

Marginal Regression of Gaps Between Recurrent Events

Recurrent event data typically exhibit the phenomenon of intra-individual correlation, owing to not only observed covariates but also random effects. In many applications, the population may be reasonably postulated as a heterogeneous mixture of individual renewal processes, and the inference of interest is the effect of individual-level covariates. In this article, we suggest and investigate a marginal proportional hazards model for gaps between recurrent events. A connection is established between observed gap times and clustered survival data with informative cluster size. We subsequently construct a novel and general inference procedure for the latter, based on a functional formulation of standard Cox regression. Large-sample theory is established for the proposed estimators. Numerical studies demonstrate that the procedure performs well with practical sample sizes. Application to the well-known bladder tumor data is given as an illustration.     

时距估计干扰效应的研究与思考

已有的研究从不同作业类型下的干扰效应和相关的理论解释两个方面对时距估计干扰效应进行了剖析 ,未来的研究应以分段 /综合模型为基础进行探讨 ,时距加工的认知神经研究促进了人们对时间信息加工实质的理解。     

美国"新经济"的"旧经济"解析及其启示

"新经济"概念首先在美国兴起,随后迅即在世界范围内广泛传播与使用.究竟什么是"新经济"?"新经济"究竟"新"在哪里?采用总需求-总供给模型,对美国"新经济"现象进行理论分析需求的拉动和供给的推进是美国出现"新经济"的原因;技术创新和外需主导型战略的实施拉动了总需求;信息技术(产业)、全球化以及"里根经济学"的长期效应使AS得以持续扩张.其成功之处对我国经济发展同样具有重要的借鉴价值.     

湖南澧水中下游流域资源经济评价与开发模式探讨

澧水中下游流域区位优势比较明显 ,城镇比较密集 ,水力、矿产、旅游和生物资源都很丰富 ,实施流域开发条件优越 ,但也受到地区经济发展水平较低、产业结构趋同、城市规模偏小、流域经济运作不够协调、整体投资环境比较封闭、资源开发手段原始等因素的制约。战略上宜采取“点 -轴 -网 -片”开发模式 ,以资源开发为主导 ,把本区建成能源、建材、化工、轻工等工业发达 ,城镇密集的区域性经济走廊和农业商品生产基地     

面向21世纪的文艺基础理论

倡导反思精神和“问题意识”是文艺基础理论研究学理创新和学术自觉的必要前提。这些年来 ,文艺研究的边缘化让我们失去了聚焦文论本体的自信 ,理论思维的认同化使我们失去了原创和超越的勇气 ,而学术研究的功利化又使我们失去了思想和方法论的支撑。建设 2 1世纪的文艺基础理论 ,需要认准传统与未来、自律与他律、形态范式和学理特色等方面的价值坐标 ,在构建学理中回到基础理论本体 ,以“元问题”启动文艺学当代形态建构 ,面向未来实现“一体两翼”的综合创新 ,并且在理论视野上关注全球化、高科技和大众审美文化对文艺基础理论建设的生态滋养。     

南阳香菇代料春栽技术探析

南阳西部山区及周边地区菇农在香菇代料栽培生产实践中 ,探索出了“双棚、中 (小 )袋、立体层架、春季栽培”法 ,管理上首创“不脱袋转色”、“带袋全光育花”技术。这种生产管理模式称之谓香菇代料栽培生产的“南阳模式”。     

企业发展过程中的成功要素结构变迁——韩国三星企业集团成功之道

企业发展壮大的关键在于 :企业能够在发展的过程中动态调整企业系统的 7S成功要素组合 ,以适应经营环境变化。本文提出了一个企业发展 5阶段与 7S成功要素匹配的理论结构 ,并就三星企业的发展史做了实证研究