从 WTO 到 TPP--一种科技哲学的视角分析

从科技哲学的理论来看,全球化伴随着熵增,而 WTO 则导向熵减。由功能耦合所构建的全球产业链,让世界从恐怖下的和平到相互依存的和平。金融危机瓦解了全球产业链,世界陷入分岔点,竞争、动荡和不确定成为主导,各国竞相争夺未来世界的主导权。TPP 达成一致,意味着美国在为未来的全球产业链制定规则上迈出了一大步。由 WTO 到 TPP,是 WTO 的扩展和提升,阴谋论于事无补。中国宜认清潮流,打牢基础,以开放促改革,积极准备加入 TPP,参与今后规则的制定,共同构建人类命运共同体。     

An Adaptive Simulation Framework for the Exploration of Extreme and Unexpected Events in Dynamic Engineered Systems

The end states reached by an engineered system during an accident scenario depend not only on the sequences of the events composing the scenario, but also on their timing and magnitudes. Including these additional features within an overarching framework can render the analysis infeasible in practical cases, due to the high dimension of the system state‐space and the computational effort correspondingly needed to explore the possible system evolutions in search of the interesting (and very rare) ones of failure. To tackle this hurdle, in this article we introduce a framework for efficiently probing the space of event sequences of a dynamic system by means of a guided Monte Carlo simulation. Such framework is semi‐automatic and allows embedding the analyst's prior knowledge about the system and his/her objectives of analysis. Specifically, the framework allows adaptively and intelligently allocating the simulation efforts preferably on those sequences leading to outcomes of interest for the objectives of the analysis, e.g., typically those that are more safety‐critical (and/or rare). The emerging diversification in the filling of the state‐space by the preference‐guided exploration allows also the retrieval of critical system features, which can be useful to analysts and designers for taking appropriate means of prevention and mitigation of dangerous and/or unexpected consequences. A dynamic system for gas transmission is considered as a case study to demonstrate the application of the method.     

Learning from mixed OR method practice: The NINES case study

Despite continued interest in the use of mixed OR/MS methods, limited attention has been paid in the literature to generic lessons that could be gained from mixing methods in practice. Many organisational problems demand the use of a mixed method approach and thus recognising and sharing lessons could prove beneficial to both practitioners and researchers. This paper reports on an in-depth evaluation of a case study involving risk identification and quantification of the Northern Isles New Energy Solutions (NINES) project which sought to trial and plan a new energy system. The intervention involved a mixed method approach and client feedback on the efficacy of the approach was sought. The evaluation reported in this paper is carried out using a set of themes taken from the literature and seeks to highlight transferable lessons. The set of lessons that emerge are presented along with their implications for both general OR modelling practice and the specific situation of mixing OR/MS methods. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the work and directions for future work which will be of interest to both practitioners and researchers interested in mixed method OR/MS work.     

A Meta‐Analysis of Carbon Nanotube Pulmonary Toxicity Studies—How Physical Dimensions and Impurities Affect the Toxicity of Carbon Nanotubes

This article presents a regression‐tree‐based meta‐analysis of rodent pulmonary toxicity studies of uncoated, nonfunctionalized carbon nanotube (CNT) exposure. The resulting analysis provides quantitative estimates of the contribution of CNT attributes (impurities, physical dimensions, and aggregation) to pulmonary toxicity indicators in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid: neutrophil and macrophage count, and lactate dehydrogenase and total protein concentrations. The method employs classification and regression tree (CART) models, techniques that are relatively insensitive to data defects that impair other types of regression analysis: high dimensionality, nonlinearity, correlated variables, and significant quantities of missing values. Three types of analysis are presented: the RT, the random forest (RF), and a random‐forest‐based dose‐response model. The RT shows the best single model supported by all the data and typically contains a small number of variables. The RF shows how much variance reduction is associated with every variable in the data set. The dose‐response model is used to isolate the effects of CNT attributes from the CNT dose, showing the shift in the dose‐response caused by the attribute across the measured range of CNT doses. It was found that the CNT attributes that contribute the most to pulmonary toxicity were metallic impurities (cobalt significantly increased observed toxicity, while other impurities had mixed effects), CNT length (negatively correlated with most toxicity indicators), CNT diameter (significantly positively associated with toxicity), and aggregate size (negatively correlated with cell damage indicators and positively correlated with immune response indicators). Increasing CNT N₂‐BET‐specific surface area decreased toxicity indicators.     

中国管理学研究的人本主义范式

哲学视野审视下的中国传统管理文化以战略为管理的核心，其所蕴含的丰富的人本主义思想在管理实践中表现为科学、艺术和哲学3种元素的融合。战略之树的比喻提供了中国管理学的认识框架，可以推动管理科学研究与管理哲学研究的统一，继而促成中国传统管理文化与管理科学的内在整合。中国管理学的意义在于推动管理学研究从科学主义范式走向人本主义范式。     

论陕北汉画像圣树符号的宇宙论意义

作为汉代思想的物质载体,刻有圣树符号的陕北汉画像石造型多呈竖立型,反映了宇宙划分为天堂与人间,圣树为连接天堂与人间的唯一通道这样一种二分的垂直宇宙论。圣树图像并非为汉陕北汉画像石所独有,它普遍存在于世界各地的神话与仪式中,其原型为史前时代的宇宙树。圣树符号的史前图像探源表明,陕北汉画像石中的圣树图像并不是汉代升仙与厚葬思想的产物,其构图范式源自史前口传时代大传统以圣树为中心的神话宇宙论。     

Uncertainty Analysis in Fault Tree Models with Dependent Basic Events

In general, two types of dependence need to be considered when estimating the probability of the top event (TE) of a fault tree (FT): “objective” dependence between the (random) occurrences of different basic events (BEs) in the FT and “state‐of‐knowledge” (epistemic) dependence between estimates of the epistemically uncertain probabilities of some BEs of the FT model. In this article, we study the effects on the TE probability of objective and epistemic dependences. The well‐known Frèchet bounds and the distribution envelope determination (DEnv) method are used to model all kinds of (possibly unknown) objective and epistemic dependences, respectively. For exemplification, the analyses are carried out on a FT with six BEs. Results show that both types of dependence significantly affect the TE probability; however, the effects of epistemic dependence are likely to be overwhelmed by those of objective dependence (if present).     

南亚树木崇拜和佛经母题对于树神传说的触媒

三国两晋时代,南亚树木崇拜传入流播,与中土生态困境引发的理性思考交汇,构成了中土民俗心态的一次震撼。其在介乎民俗传说和文学之间的树神母题中,凄楚而顽强地表现出来。佛经故事母题伴随着佛教的众生平等、戒禁杀生等观念,深入到中国古人民俗心理中。树神崇拜也成为中国古代植物神崇拜的核心。     

从《家谱》看改土归流后土司时期的土著居民家族建构

清朝雍正五年对湘西进行了大规模的和平“改土归流”后,不管是土司时的家族,还是移民家族,都为了与原来的土司家族划清界限,证明本家族身份的合法性和正统性,在家谱中对本家族的历史进行建构。以向氏家族为例,以民间文献家谱为资料,采用历史人类学的方法,可归纳出改土归流后家族历史在民间文献中的基本表述形式,再现土司制度废除后的湘西各家族的历史。     

Distance-Based Measures of Association with Applications in Relating Hyperspectral Images

We propose a distance-based method to relate two data sets. We define and study some measures of multivariate association based on distances between observations. The proposed approach can be used to deal with general data sets (e.g., observations on continuous, categorical or mixed variables). An application, using Hellinger distance, provides the relationships between two regions of hyperspectral images.