论公共政策设计的逻辑和模式

通过对公共政策的逻辑结构分析,在创建综合浴盆曲线图的基础上,提出政策功能分析模式、政策时间与空间分析模式,以及制定配套政策和替换政策来弥补基本政策失效阶段的政策效力,并进一步提出了全新的公共政策决策树方法,引入公众反应概率、专家评估权重和政府权重系数等因素,以促使决策制度和决策方式改革的科学化。     

略论陆机《文赋》的文章章法论

陆机《文赋》中论述文章章法的部分，其要点是一、片言居要立警策；二、剪裁合体，义辞相称；三、力戒雷同，努力创新；四、工拙相济，张弛有序；五、言意统一，主客观契合。     

数控机床故障概率计算方法的研究

本文提出了计算数控机床各种常见故障发生概率的一般方法,以此来确定故障发生的各种可能性,从而为提高数控机床可靠性提供理论依据,并通过示例证明其有效性。     

Computational methods for local regression

Local regression is a nonparametric method in which the regression surface is estimated by fitting parametric functions locally in the space of the predictors using weighted least squares in a moving fashion similar to the way that a time series is smoothed by moving averages. Three computational methods for local regression are presented. First, fast surface fitting and evaluation is achieved by building ak-d tree in the space of the predictors, evaluating the surface at the corners of the tree, and then interpolating elsewhere by blending functions. Second, surfaces are made conditionally parametric in any proper subset of the predictors by a simple alteration of the weighting scheme. Third degree-of-freedom quantities that would be extremely expensive to compute exactly are approximated, not by numerical methods, but through a statistical model that predicts the quantities from the trace of the hat matrix, which can be computed easily.     

大气污染对杉木生长影响的初步研究

对资江氮肥厂附近大乘山杉木生长情况所作的研究工作包括大气监测、杉叶叶绿素、钾离子外渗率、电解质外渗率及其营养元素N、P、K、Ca、Mg、全S含量的测定,树干解析,结果表明:离厂越近,大气污染物SO_2、NO_2、和NH_3等的浓度越高,杉叶叶绿素及其P、K、Ca、Mg等营养元素含量:对照区>污染区;而杉叶钾离子外渗率和电解质外渗率及其全S、全N含量为:污染区>对照区,且叶中全S和全N含员随着时间的推移逐渐增加,分析表明:大气污染是大乘山杉木衰亡的重要原因。     

Spanning trees and identifiability of a single-factor model

The aim of this paper is to propose conditions for exploring the class of identifiable Gaussian models with one latent variable. In particular, we focus attention on the topological structure of the complementary graph of the residuals. These conditions are mainly based on the presence of odd cycles and bridge edges in the complementary graph. We propose to use the spanning tree representation of the graph and the associated matrix of fundamental cycles. In this way it is possible to obtain an algorithm able to establish in advance whether modifying the graph corresponding to an identifiable model, the resulting graph still denotes identifiability.     

Physical and chemical properties of a Hong Kong roadside soil in relation to urban tree growth

Tree planting in urban areas faces many limitations that suppress performance and increase management burdens. Soil problems are increasingly recognized as an important cause of establishment failures and declines. Recent city-greening programs in Hong Kong necessitate a better understanding of soil difficulties, but relevant information is lacking. A detailed study of physical and chemical properties of a representative roadside soil provides baseline data on edaphic restrictions and hints for correction and amelioration. The soil depth is inadequate for normal root expansion of trees, is excessively stony and sandy, and is beset by poor structure and heavy compaction. Root growth is likely to be restricted by the low levels of porosity and high shear strength. The densely packed surface layer reduces aeration and water movement into the lower layers. The nutrient stock is meager, and the ability to hold available moisture and nutrients is very limited. Soil reaction comparing with local natural soil is uncharacteristically alkaline with pH reaching 8.5 which may induce iron and manganese deficiency. Heavy metals register elevated concentrations especially for lead and zinc, but do not attain phytotoxic levels. The common multiple substrate problems need to be addressed properly before trees are planted. Evaluation of selected soil attributes is advocated for all planting sites.     

基于违约风险的三叉树模型在可转债定价中的应用研究

本文考虑可转债券的违约风险,研究如何用违约风险下的三叉树模型对可转换债券进行定价。首先本文使用Black-Scholes公式测算企业在单位时间内的违约概率。其次,在计算可转债的债券价值时,将相似经营业绩和同等风险的企业债券收益率作为贴现率,计算现金流的现值,以反映相应的违约风险;在计算可转债看涨期权价值时,本文在三叉树模型中引入违约概率,重新计算调整后股票上涨、下跌的幅度和概率,得到基于违约风险的三叉树定价模型;最后对中国市场中实际的可转债——新钢转债进行了定价的计算,并对结果进行了探讨。     

《心爱的树》：女性视角的缺失

蒋韵小说《心爱的树》在精心锻造大先生君子风采的同时,因为所采取的是传统性别视角,从而使文本中的两位女性成为＂牺牲＂。梅巧和大萍因为对待大先生——文本中的君子,也是传统社会核心价值的不同态度,而定格为决然对立的女性形象。由此可见,在意识形态中仍然存在着对女性的蔑视和贬低,传统文化的中心价值仍然浸淫着每个生活于其中的人。     

A Distribution-free Multivariate Change-point Model for Statistical Process Control

This article develops a new distribution-free multivariate procedure for statistical process control based on minimal spanning tree (MST), which integrates a multivariate two-sample goodness-of-fit (GOF) test based on MST and change-point model. Simulation results show that our proposed procedure is quite robust to nonnormally distributed data, and moreover, it is efficient in detecting process shifts, especially moderate to large shifts, which is one of the main drawbacks of most distribution-free procedures in the literature. The proposed procedure is particularly useful in start-up situations. Comparison results and a real data example show that our proposed procedure has great potential for application.