企业动态联盟的复杂性特征

论述了复杂性科学的基本观点 ,分析了动态联盟的概念和特征 ,重点挖掘了动态联盟中蕴涵的复杂性科学思想 ,指出了动态联盟的复杂性特征 ,旨在为企业发展提供一条思路。     

随机分布参数系统的最优控制

讨论了用柱布朗运动过程驱动，在Ｂａｎａｃｈ空间中取值，用随机发展方程描述的随机分布参数系统的最优控制问题。用文献［１］中的方法得到了状态过程的轨道变分的表达式和最优控制的必要条件与充分条件。     

烷烃拓扑结构与标准熵关系的研究

本文研究了烷烃拓扑结构与标准熵的关系,得到了气态烷烃标准熵的计算公式S_(298.15k)=49.773n+8.2921g(W+3)-11.972P+126.865(e.u.)(式中 n 为碳原子数,W,P 为分子的拓扑参数),并说明了体系宏观性质与微观性质之间的联系.     

独塔无背索斜拉桥施工控制中的参数识别

独塔无背索斜拉桥施工控制中,影响参数的识别是判别实际值与理论值误差的有效途径,是通过调整参数使结构受力均衡的关键。本文以长春市轻轨独塔无背索斜拉桥工程为例,采用最小二乘法对施工阶段计算模型中的主要参数进行识别,以主梁标高误差平方和最小为目标函数,得出了符合工程实际的参数修正值。     

Risk of Bayesian Inference in Misspecified Models,and the Sandwich Covariance Matrix

It is well known that, in misspecified parametric models, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is consistent for the pseudo‐true value and has an asymptotically normal sampling distribution with “sandwich” covariance matrix. Also, posteriors are asymptotically centered at the MLE, normal, and of asymptotic variance that is, in general, different than the sandwich matrix. It is shown that due to this discrepancy, Bayesian inference about the pseudo‐true parameter value is, in general, of lower asymptotic frequentist risk when the original posterior is substituted by an artificial normal posterior centered at the MLE with sandwich covariance matrix. An algorithm is suggested that allows the implementation of this artificial posterior also in models with high dimensional nuisance parameters which cannot reasonably be estimated by maximizing the likelihood.     

试井早期流态恢复及参数解释

根据压力数据中噪音对压力导数的影响随时间快速减弱的特点，针对地面流量恒定、流动期内定井储的压力数据，根据井筒物质平衡方程，采用指数流量模型按反向分段光滑拟合算法及约束条件，恢复出在开关井后井筒的续流流量，在此基础上，利用Ilk反褶积算法消除指定比例的井储效应，恢复出受井储效应影响的早期压力响应，并利用恢复的径向流直线段进行参数解释。含0.03MPa随机噪音的压力数据测试表明，方法稳定、结果准确。     

Using jackknife to correct bias of MLE for the truncated Pareto distribution

The Pareto distribution is a well-known probability distribution in statistics, which has been widely used in many fields, such as finance, physics, hydrology, geology and astronomy. However, the parameter estimation for the truncated Pareto distribution is much more complicated than that for the Pareto distribution. In this paper, we demonstrate that the bias of the maximum likelihood estimation for the truncated Pareto distribution can be significantly reduced by its jackknife estimation, which has a very simple form.     

Evaluating the Accuracy of Small P‐Values In Genetic Association Studies Using Edgeworth Expansions

The asymptotic distributions of many classical test statistics are normal. The resulting approximations are often accurate for commonly used significance levels, 0.05 or 0.01. In genome‐wide association studies, however, the significance level can be as low as 1×10⁻⁷, and the accuracy of the p‐values can be challenging. We study the accuracies of these small p‐values are using two‐term Edgeworth expansions for three commonly used test statistics in GWAS. These tests have nuisance parameters not defined under the null hypothesis but estimable. We derive results for this general form of testing statistics using Edgeworth expansions, and find that the commonly used score test, maximin efficiency robust test and the chi‐squared test are second order accurate in the presence of the nuisance parameter, justifying the use of the p‐values obtained from these tests in the genome‐wide association studies.     

Reliability statistical analysis about products of Birnbaum–Saunders fatigue life distribution for life test and progressive stress accelerated life test

Birnbaum–Saunders fatigue life distribution is an important failure model in the probability physical methods. It is more suitable for describing the life rules of fatigue failure products than common life distributions such as Weibull distribution and lognormal distribution. Besides, it is mainly applied to analytical research about fatigue failure and degradation failure of electronic product performance. The characteristic properties such as numerical characteristics and image features of density function and failure rate function are studied for generalized BS fatigue life distribution GBS(α, β, m) in this paper. Then the point estimates and approximate interval estimates of parameters are proposed for generalized BS fatigue life distribution GBS(α, β, m), and the precision of estimates are investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, when the scale parameter satisfies inverse power law model, the failure distribution model is given for the products of two-parameter BS fatigue life distribution BS(α, β) under progressive stress accelerated life test according to the time conversion idea of famous Nelson assumption, and then the points estimates of parameters are given.