Estimation of the intercept parameter for linear regression model with uncertain non-sample prior information

This paper considers alternative estimators of the intercept parameter of the linear regression model with normal error when uncertain non-sample prior information about the value of the slope parameter is available. The maximum likelihood, restricted, preliminary test and shrinkage estimators are considered. Based on their quadratic biases and mean square errors the relative performances of the estimators are investigated. Both analytical and graphical comparisons are explored. None of the estimators is found to be uniformly dominating the others. However, if the non-sample prior information regarding the value of the slope is not too far from its true value, the shrinkage estimator of the intercept parameter dominates the rest of the estimators.     

噪声子空间法的宽频段分析

分析了均匀线阵噪声子空间法在宽频段多信号环境下存在的主要问题:不能保证频率和空间方向矩阵的列矢量线性独立、使用方向矢量搜索方法时不能同时正确估计多个信号到达方向两个问题。分析所得结论对于探索利用一维(1—D)方法实现宽频段多信号同时测向具有有益的参考价值,计算机模拟结果证明了本文分析的正确性。     

Fuzzy区间值函数项级数及其一致收敛性

文章在已知Fuzzy函数项级数一致收敛概念的基础上,补充了区间值函数项级数一致收敛的概念和判别方法,给出了一致收敛性的区间值函数项级数的分析性质。     

Conservative prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models

Bayesian hierarchical models typically involve specifying prior distributions for one or more variance components. This is rather removed from the observed data, so specification based on expert knowledge can be difficult. While there are suggestions for “default” priors in the literature, often a conditionally conjugate inverse‐gamma specification is used, despite documented drawbacks of this choice. The authors suggest “conservative” prior distributions for variance components, which deliberately give more weight to smaller values. These are appropriate for investigators who are skeptical about the presence of variability in the second‐stage parameters (random effects) and want to particularly guard against inferring more structure than is really present. The suggested priors readily adapt to various hierarchical modelling settings, such as fitting smooth curves, modelling spatial variation and combining data from multiple sites.     

Objective Testing Procedures in Linear Models: Calibration of the p-values

Abstract.  An optimal Bayesian decision procedure for testing hypothesis in normal linear models based on intrinsic model posterior probabilities is considered. It is proven that these posterior probabilities are simple functions of the classical F -statistic, thus the evaluation of the procedure can be carried out analytically through the frequentist analysis of the posterior probability of the null. An asymptotic analysis proves that, under mild conditions on the design matrix, the procedure is consistent. For any testing hypothesis it is also seen that there is a one-to-one mapping – which we call calibration curve – between the posterior probability of the null hypothesis and the classical bi p -value. This curve adds substantial knowledge about the possible discrepancies between the Bayesian and the p -value measures of evidence for testing hypothesis. It permits a better understanding of the serious difficulties that are encountered in linear models for interpreting the p -values. A specific illustration of the variable selection problem is given.     

Bayesian Survival Analysis Using Bernstein Polynomials

Abstract.  Bayesian survival analysis of right-censored survival data is studied using priors on Bernstein polynomials and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These priors easily take into consideration geometric information like convexity or initial guess on the cumulative hazard functions, select only smooth functions, can have large enough support, and can be easily specified and generated. Certain frequentist asymptotic properties of the posterior distribution are established. Simulation studies indicate that these Bayes methods are quite satisfactory.     

我国银行存款保险费率计量模式的合理选择

在我国或将实行存款保险制度之际,面临的一个核心技术问题是采用何种存款保险费率计量模式。纵观世界,虽然现阶段采用统一存款保险费率的国家偏多,但是差别费率模式却是未来的发展方向,实施何种费率计量模式要综合兼顾,考虑国情,我国合理的选择应该是初期实行机构等级费率制,等条件成熟时再实行风险等级差别费率制。     

Copules archimédiennes et families de lois bidimensionnelles dont les marges sont données

Every bivariate distribution function with continuous marginals can be represented in terms of a unique copula, that is, in terms of a distribution function on the unit square with uniform marginals. This paper is concerned with a special class of copulas called Archimedean, which includes the uniform representation of many standard bivariate distributions. Conditions are given under which these copulas are stochastically ordered and pointwise limits of sequences of Archimedean copulas are examined. We also provide two new one-parameter families of bivariate distributions which include as limiting cases the Frechet bounds and the independence distribution.     

含时滞的单种群反馈控制扩散模型解的渐近行为

本文通过构造 Liapunov 泛函并结合 Smoller 不变区域理论和不等式估计方法,对含时滞的单种群反馈控制扩散模型解的渐近行为进行了讨论,获得了解的整体存在性、有界性及解的一致收敛性的若干充分条件.     

Recursive estimation of the mode of a multivariate density

Let f be an unknown possibly multimodal density on R^d and let X₁, X₂, … be a sequence of independent random vectors with density f. Several recursive estimates of the mode of f are proposed, and sufficient conditions ensuring their weak and strong consistency are established.