Pension privatization in crisis: Death or rebirth of a global policy trend?

From 1981 to 2007, more than thirty countries worldwide fully or partially replaced their pre‐existing pay‐as‐you‐go pension systems with ones based on individual, private savings accounts in a process often labelled “pension privatization”. After the global financial crisis, this trend was put on hold for economic, ideational, and institutional reasons, despite a rise in critical indebtedness that has facilitated pension privatization in the past. Is the global trend towards pension privatization dead or in the process of being reborn, perhaps in a somewhat different form? Several recent trends point to rebirth as policy‐makers scale back public and private pension systems, attend to minimum pensions and “nudge” rather than mandate people to save for retirement.     

Pensions in Nigeria: The performance of the new system of personal accounts

In 2004, Nigeria copied the 1981 Chilean pension reform and established a funded system based upon personal accounts. The new system was neither appropriate for a country such as Nigeria, nor did it meet aspirations of improving pension coverage or helping economic growth. The current financial and economic crisis hit the scheme in so far as it hit stock values. However, more important has been the negative real interest rates that can be earned on government bonds and on bank deposits — where the majority of contributions are invested. Bank scandals and rising fiscal deficits do not breed confidence in the system or the government's ability to deliver meaningful benefits in old age.     

Working life and retirement pensions in Spain: The simulated impact of a parametric reform

This article aims to offer an ex ante evaluation of the impact of a parametric reform of the Spanish pension system that would involve increasing the reference period used to calculate benefits, an approach proposed many times by various actors in the socio‐economic field. Such gradual change may be categorized as a non‐structural reform of the pension system. This contrasts with reforms of a structural nature that have been very popular in Latin America and elsewhere, involving the creation of defined contribution individual account schemes. As regards the parametric reform proposed in this article, the main findings indicate that it would have a small but negative impact on pension income for pensioners and would reduce income distribution.     

解决中国收入分配问题的对策研究

中国收入分配问题虽然从总体上表现为贫富差距的拉大,但事实上却是一个双重复杂的问题:不仅收入分配状态呈现多种格局,而且造成每一种分配格局的原因也极为不同.因此,要解决中国的收入分配问题,不仅要对收入分配的现状有精确描述,而且要对不同的分配格局进行原因分析,在此基础上才可能提出类似于“靶向疗法”的治理对策研究和综合治理对策...     

Parameter and reliability estimation for an exponentiated half-logistic distribution under progressive type II censoring

In this article, we deal with a two-parameter exponentiated half-logistic distribution. We consider the estimation of unknown parameters, the associated reliability function and the hazard rate function under progressive Type II censoring. Maximum likelihood estimates (M LEs) are proposed for unknown quantities. Bayes estimates are derived with respect to squared error, linex and entropy loss functions. Approximate explicit expressions for all Bayes estimates are obtained using the Lindley method. We also use importance sampling scheme to compute the Bayes estimates. Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples are further used to produce credible intervals for the unknown parameters. Asymptotic confidence intervals are constructed using the normality property of the MLEs. For comparison purposes, bootstrap-p and bootstrap-t confidence intervals are also constructed. A comprehensive numerical study is performed to compare the proposed estimates. Finally, a real-life data set is analysed to illustrate the proposed methods of estimation.     

Estimation procedures for Maxwell distribution under type-I progressive hybrid censoring scheme

The Maxwell (or Maxwell–Boltzmann) distribution was invented to solve the problems relating to physics and chemistry. It has also proved its strength of analysing the lifetime data. For this distribution, we consider point and interval estimation procedures in the presence of type-I progressively hybrid censored data. We obtain maximum likelihood estimator of the parameter and provide asymptotic and bootstrap confidence intervals of it. The Bayes estimates and Bayesian credible and highest posterior density intervals are obtained using inverted gamma prior. The expression of the expected number of failures in life testing experiment is also derived. The results are illustrated through the simulation study and analysis of a real data set is presented.     

Generalized inverted exponential distribution under progressive first-failure censoring

This article deals with progressive first-failure censoring, which is a generalization of progressive censoring. We derive maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters and reliability characteristics of generalized inverted exponential distribution using progressive first-failure censored samples. The asymptotic confidence intervals and coverage probabilities for the parameters are obtained based on the observed Fisher's information matrix. Bayes estimators of the parameters and reliability characteristics under squared error loss function are obtained using the Lindley approximation and importance sampling methods. Also, highest posterior density credible intervals for the parameters are computed using importance sampling procedure. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted to analyse the performance of the estimators derived in the article. A real data set is discussed for illustration purposes. Finally, an optimal censoring scheme has been suggested using different optimality criteria.     

近10年来上海市人口变化特征与问题分析

人口变化特征和问题对区域经济社会发展有着重要影响。结合第六次全国人口普查数据和第五次全国人口普查数据,深入分析了上海市10年来人口变化主要特征,并在此基础上探讨了上海市人口数量、结构、分布等方面存在的主要问题,并针对问题提出了一些措施和建议。     

Minimax designs for approximately linear models with AR(1) errors

We obtain designs for linear regression models under two main departures from the classical assumptions: (1) the response is taken to be only approximately linear, and (2) the errors are not assumed to be independent, but to instead follow a first-order autoregressive process. These designs have the property that they minimize (a modification of) the maximum integrated mean squared error of the estimated response, with the maximum taken over a class of departures from strict linearity and over all autoregression parameters ρ,|ρ,| < 1, of fixed sign. Specific methods of implementation are discussed. We find that an asymptotically optimal procedure for AR(1) models consists of choosing points from that design measure which is optimal for uncorrelated errors, and then implementing them in an appropriate order.     

Internal crisis communication: The effects of negative employee-organization relationships on internal reputation and employees’ unsupportive behavior

This study seeks to advance the growing body of research in internal crisis communication by exploring the role of negative employee-organization relationships (NEOR) in determining crisis outcomes (employees' unsupportive behavior and internal reputation). The current study was conducted using 465 full-time employees working in the technology sector (phone manufacturing industry) in the United States. The employees were recruited using an online research tool, Qualtrics. Multiple hierarchical regression and path analysis were used to analyze the results. The results reveal that a) NEOR affects internal reputation negatively and increases the likelihood of unsupportive behavior, b) timing does not affect the relationship between NEOR and crisis outcomes, c) rebuilding strategies help in overcoming employees' unwillingness to support the organization during a crisis, and d) negative emotions influence the effect of NEOR on the crisis outcomes. Both theoretical and practical implications are discussed.