商品二因素的经济学混沌分析

商品的二因素各自存在,并对应着其所分别具有的社会性。随着社会分工的高度细化,自由竞争市场的价格形成越来越随机,人的影响使交换过程呈现混沌化,交换价值形成在一种信息不对称的情况下。因此,事实是使用价值与价值共同参与了交换的过程,并影响交换价值的形成。而价值作为人类劳动的物化,才是最终构成人类社会财富的同一的物质内容。     

Estimation of Polygons and Areas

Abstract.  In forestry the problem of estimating areas is central. This paper addresses area estimation through fitting of a polygon to observed coordinate data. Coordinates of corners and points along the sides of a simple closed polygon are measured with independent random errors. This paper focuses on procedures to adjust the coordinates for estimation of the polygon and its area. Different new techniques that consider different amounts of prior information are described and compared. The different techniques use restricted least squares, maximum likelihood and the expectation maximization algorithm. In a simulation study it is shown that the root mean square errors of the estimates are decreased when coordinates are adjusted before estimation. Minor further improvement is achieved by using prior information about the order and the distribution of the points along the sides of the polygon. This paper has its origin in forestry but there are also other applications.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Gaussian Chain Graph Models under the Alternative Markov Property

Abstract.  The Andersson–Madigan–Perlman (AMP) Markov property is a recently proposed alternative Markov property (AMP) for chain graphs. In the case of continuous variables with a joint multivariate Gaussian distribution, it is the AMP rather than the earlier introduced Lauritzen–Wermuth–Frydenberg Markov property that is coherent with data-generation by natural block-recursive regressions. In this paper, we show that maximum likelihood estimates in Gaussian AMP chain graph models can be obtained by combining generalized least squares and iterative proportional fitting to an iterative algorithm. In an appendix, we give useful convergence results for iterative partial maximization algorithms that apply in particular to the described algorithm.     

科学决策研究——效用理论与房地产项目决策实例分析

房地产项目开发中决策缺乏科学性操作,给项目造成潜在风险。科学决策的规范运用使项目风险降低,成功概率大大提升。效用理论作为科学决策的重要基本理论,在决策领域发挥着重要作用。采用历史观的方法,对效用理论的创立、发展及改进进行了研究。通过对现代效用理论在房地产中基本应用的探讨,建立项目决策的效用公式,并进行了效用决策的实例分析。     

从边际主义经济学的先驱看边际革命的产生

19世纪70年代初开始的边际革命，以及由此而兴起的边际主义经济学对以后经济学的发展具有深远的影响。然而，对于这场边际革命为什么会产生，以及它到底是怎样产生的，经济学界至今还有不少疑问。弄清这些疑问，对于深入、全面、客观地理解边际主义经济学的产生和探寻理论经济学演变的规律无疑具有重要的意义。该文从边际主义经济学的先驱入手，对边际革命产生的原因提出了新的见解，即认为边际革命是多学科交叉共振与一系列主客观因素高度统一的结果。     

国际体坛反兴奋剂的经济学分析

国际体坛反兴奋剂问题不仅是法律问题、政治问题、医学问题,也是一个经济学问题。本文通过建立一个简单的效用函数,分析了运动员使用兴奋剂的成本和收益因素,并根据这些因素,提出了通过提高运动员使用兴奋剂行为的预期成本来减少兴奋剂使用行为的一些措施。     

A Review of the High-Level Nuclear Waste Repository Siting Analysis

We critique two 1986 Department of Energy reports concerning the selection of sites for characterization as the nation's first high-level nuclear waste repository. We find that the multiattribute utility analysis of the five nominated sites was well done, although we express concern about the assessed probabilities, question the construction of two important attribute scales, and disagree with some of the value tradeoffs that were used. In contrast, we find the logic of the recommendations report to be weak and unconvincing.     

守望与漂流——卡夫卡“毁稿遗嘱”论

卡夫卡的"毁稿遗嘱"及其围绕它所展开的"诉讼"似乎给人一种错觉作为一个视文学为自己生命形式的作家,他一点都不关心甚至不求自己作品的面世.事实真是如此吗?他与布罗德的友谊到底是怎么回事?他都否定了自己的哪些作品?从"形而下"的角度,阻碍他发表作品的原因到底有哪些?诸如此类的问题需要我们重新清理.     

Lorenz non-consistent welfare and inequality measurement

Typical welfare and inequality measures are required to be Lorenz consistent which guarantees that inequality decreases and welfare increases as a result of a progressive transfer. We explore the implications for welfare and inequality measurement of substituting the weaker absolute differentials and deprivation quasi-orderings for the Lorenz quasi-ordering. Restricting attention to distributions of equal means, we show that the utilitarian model - the so-called expected utility model in the theory of risk - does not permit one to make a distinction between the views embedded in the differentials, deprivation and Lorenz quasi-orderings. In contrast it is possible within the dual model of M. Yaari (Econometrica 55 (1987), 99–115) to derive the restrictions to be placed on the weighting function which guarantee that the corresponding welfare orderings are consistent with the differentials and deprivation quasi-orderings respectively. Finally we drop the equal mean condition and indicate the implications of our approach for the absolute ethical inequality indices.     

How Many Balance Functions Does it Take to Determine a Utility Function?

Call b your balance function at wealth W if you are indifferent between W and a 50–50 lottery with outcomes x and b(x). Given one b, u is arbitrary on one side of W but then determined on the other. Given two b‘s, u is arbitrary between the two W′ s but then determined elsewhere. Additional properties of u restrict the b’s but do not ordinarily make u unique. Contradictions can occur. Given three b′ s, an algorithm is developed using minimal domains of definition that determines the relative utility of the W’s. If it is irrational, then the set S generated by applying all combinations of b’s to W′ s is dense and u is determined. If finitely many b’s are rationally related, then S is discrete, a further algorithm determines it, the values of u on S are equally spaced, and u is arbitrary between any two adjacent points of S but then determined elsewhere. Infinitely many balance functions determine u unless they are rationally related in a uniform way.JEL Classification: D81