论新时期思想政治工作的创新

思想政治工作是我党的优良传统和政治优势,是一切工作取得胜利的可靠保证。面对新世纪、新形势,创新是思想政治工作的时代要求。新时期要真正使思想政治工作的创新积极、主动、稳妥、有效地取得实质性进展,应重点抓好三个方面的创新:观念上的创新、内容上的创新与充实、方法上的创新。     

基于ART及多风险规避的交通网络均衡模型

随着对交通系统不确定性认识的深入,以绝对理性为基础的“期望效用理论”在风险环境下的路径选择分析中显示出局限性,而“预期后悔理论”则为之提供了新的分析思路.将预期后悔理论应用到风险环境下的路径选择分析中,将出行者一致风险规避的假设扩展到多风险规避,建立了基于后悔理论及多风险规避出行特征的交通网络随机用户均衡变分不等式模型,并给出了求解算法.通过算例分析发现,后悔心理对出行者的路径选择并不总是显著的.在非风险环境及极端风险环境中,后悔心理对出行者的路径选择影响是微弱的,但是当环境处于极端风险与非风险之间时,后悔心理对出行者路径选择有着较为显著的影响.     

浅谈企业如何发挥效能监察

针对效能监察工作在现代企业建设步伐中发挥的重要作用,就如何更好地发挥效能监察的作用,提高市场竞争能力,进行了一些探讨。     

试论劳动价值与效用价值的数量关系

劳动价值论和效用价值论是关于价值决定的两个最具代表性的理论,一般认为二者是互不相容的。文章从不易产生歧义的“使用价值”概念出发,把自然界和人类劳动对价值的贡献区别开来,进一步澄清了价值相关概念,并发现劳动价值与人工效用在数量上总是相等的。如果把劳动价值论和效用价值论融合起来,价值决定理论可能更为完整。     

影响消费者购买决策的产品属性效用实证分析

本文采用UTASTAR方法,以手机产品为例,从多属性效用这个新视角来评估决策这一因素,研究了七种手机产品对消费者的总效用、各属性的边际效用及各影响因素的重要程度.目前,产品属性影响力大小的获知主要依靠市场调研或网络调研,该文所采用的UTASTAR方法是市场调研方法的补充和完善.论文首先阐述了UTASTAR方法在研究消费者购买决策方面的优势,然后对通过网络挖掘获取的手机属性数据进行定量计算,结果各款手机的总效用排序与实际调查得到的消费者的关注度基本一致.另外,本文计算得到的属性边际效用和属性的权重,能够使营销人员和产品设计人员更好地把握手机产品的重要属性及其重要程度,有利于指导企业制定具有竞争力的产品和市场战略.     

Estimating utility functions using generalized maximum entropy

This paper estimates von Neumann and Morgenstern utility functions using the generalized maximum entropy (GME), applied to data obtained by utility elicitation methods. Given the statistical advantages of this approach, we provide a comparison of the performance of the GME estimator with ordinary least square (OLS) in a real data small sample setup. The results confirm the ones obtained for small samples through Monte Carlo simulations. The difference between the two estimators is small and it decreases as the width of the parameter support vector increases. Moreover, the GME estimator is more precise than the OLS one. Overall, the results suggest that GME is an interesting alternative to OLS in the estimation of utility functions when data are generated by utility elicitation methods.     

Expected Utility Consistent Extensions of Preferences

We consider the problem of extending a (complete) order over a set to its power set. The extension axioms we consider generate orderings over sets according to their expected utilities induced by some assignment of utilities over alternatives and probability distributions over sets. The model we propose gives a general and unified exposition of expected utility consistent extensions whilst it allows to emphasize various subtleties, the effects of which seem to be underestimated – particularly in the literature on strategy-proof social choice correspondences.      

Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Parameterizing Expectations

This article describes a method for solving the one-good stochastic growth model by parameterizing the expectations part of the stochastic Euler equation. The conditional expectation is specified as a function of the state of the system, and the parameters of that function are estimated to solve the model. The article includes a discussion of how to find the parameters of the function and determine systematically the complexity of the functional form necessary to solve the model.     

Improving water service to the urban poor through delegated management: Lessons from the city of Kisumu,Kenya

Partnerships like the delegated management model (DMM), in which a utility delegates management of infrastructure and service delivery to slum residents, are being promoted to improve services to the urban slums in sub‐Saharan Africa. However, there is little empirical evidence of the benefits that DMM offers beneficiaries and its potential limitations. This study, conducted in 2013, compared water service in two slums in the city of Kisumu in Kenya where DMM has been implemented with another where it has not been implemented. Results showed that DMM had lowered the cost of water compared to water kiosks in neighbourhoods in which DMM had not been implemented. The study findings contribute toward an evidence base for stakeholders and regulators who see an opportunity in the integration of DMM into local drinking water provision solutions in urban slums.     

低频度事件保险产品选择谈判决策模型

本文考虑在低频度事件中保险产品选择问题,用效用理论及模糊数学知识建立了产品选择模型,并给出了算例,找到了使双方均满意的最优产品。