水利投资减灾效果评估:基于中国省际面板数据的实证研究

利用省际面板数据,从全国及区域层面研究新增水利投资、各类型水利设施在抗击农业旱灾、水灾中的效果。研究发现：从全国层面看,新增水利投资能有效降低旱灾成灾率、水灾成灾率,但水利投资抗旱效果比抗击水灾效果好。水库能有效抗旱,但加重了水灾成灾率,水闸抗旱效果明显。从区域层面看,东、中、西部地区水利投资抗旱效果都较明显,而水利投资抗御水灾效果东部地区最明显。机井在中部地区对抗旱起到了一定作用,但东部、西部地区机井数量却与旱灾成灾率正相关。水闸抗御水灾的作用在中部地区显著。中部地区堤防长度与水灾成灾率正相关,西部地区机电排灌站装机容量与旱灾成灾率正相关。东部地区机电排灌站装机容量与水灾成灾率负相关,而在中部地区两者正相关。     

城商行经营效率及其影响因素实证分析——基于53家城商行面板数据的随机前沿模型

根据2009—2011年国内53家城商行相应数据可构建计算城商行经营效率的随机前沿模型。样本城商行总资产占当年城商行总资产的比重达到了70%,样本商行分布于国内29个省、市、自治区、直辖市,由此可得出影响城商行经营效率的影响因素。实证研究结果发现:2009—2011年间,随着跨区域经营的大力推进、引进战略投资者、公司治理机制改革的深入以及资产质量控制的提升,国内城商行经营效率呈现出明显的改进趋势,第一大股东非国有股、引进战略投资者、跨区域经营、降低不良贷款率、降低第一大股东的持股比例等均对城商行的经营绩效产生显著的积极影响。     

公共物品供给效率研究

充足的公共物品供给在经济建设中有重大意义。文章分析了公共物品的性质及其供给模式,运用博弈论对公共物品的市场供给和政府供给效率进行了比较,认为我国应该构建多元的公共物品供给模式,推进服务型政府改革,明确政府和市场边界,减少公共物品供给中寻租行为。     

冲击型负荷下的生产存储模型研究

建立了考虑冲击需求、变化生产率的最优生产存储库存策略. 其特点是:把一个生产周 期分为多个生产阶段,各个生产阶段时间可以不同;在每个生产阶段中,允许生产率小于需求 率,允许提前生产;而且,最大生产率要小于最大需求率. 研究发现,为满足冲击需求,提前存储 较多而启动机器数量较少,或提前存储较少而启动机器数量较多,不一定能够取得最佳效益, 要根据存储费用和启动费用共同确定. 在有限生产率的条件下,得出一种寻求最优生产- 库存 策略,为此类库存系统的管理决策提供了理论依据.     

从广西第五次人口普查看人口迁移状况

本文根据2000年人口普查10%数据带汇总的结果,认为广西人口迁移呈上升趋势,且增长速度较快;迁出人口远大于迁入人口。在迁移人口中,以劳动适龄人口为主,女性人口占多数,以初中文化程度最多,迁移者大多是商业、服务业人员,农林牧副渔水利业生产人员和生产、运输设备操作人员。务工经商是促成人口迁移最直接的动因。人口迁移是广西农村发展重要的资金来源和经济增长点,加快了广西城市化进程。但人口迁移产生了人口分布失衡、人才流失等负面影响。因此,我们应通过户籍制度改革、加强中心城市功能建设、制定和实施科学的人才流动政策等措施,促进广西人口迁移的良性运行。     

二语作格动词语义加工中的身物交互效应

This article investigates the theoretical basis and feasibility in the processing of English ergative verbs from the perspective of body-object interaction effects (BOI). It analyzes the motor degree of different verbs, probing into the semantic features and syntactic behaviors of ergative verbs. It also explores the relationships between the BOI effects and different type of verbs in semantic processing, examining the motor prominence of English ergative verbs, as well as analyzing the factors that cause the misusage of English ergative verbs in the second language processing. Further empirical research is needed to verify the BOI effects’ restrictive elements in the processing of English ergative verbs.     

Comparing Equal-Tail Probability and Unbiased Confidence Intervals for the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient

The conventional confidence interval for the intraclass correlation coefficient assumes equal-tail probabilities. In general, the equal-tail probability interval is biased and other interval procedures should be considered. Unbiased confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient are readily available. The equal-tail probability and unbiased intervals have exact coverage as they are constructed using the pivotal quantity method. In this article, confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficient are built using balanced and unbalanced one-way random effects models. The expected length of confidence intervals serves as a tool to compare the two procedures. The unbiased confidence interval outperforms the equal-tail probability interval if the intraclass correlation coefficient is small and the equal-tail probability interval outperforms the unbiased interval if the intraclass correlation coefficient is large.     

Circular First- and Second-Order Balanced Repeated Measurements Designs

Sharma (1977 Sharma , V. K. ( 1977 ). Change-over designs with complete balance for first and second order residual effect . Canad. J. Statist. 5 : 121 – 132 .[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) and Aggarwal et al. (2006 Aggarwal , M. L. , Deng , L.-Y. , Jha , M. K. ( 2006 ). Balanced residual treatment effects designs of first and second order . Statist. Probab. Lett. 76 : 597 – 600 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) considered non circular construction of first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs. Sharma et al. (2002 Sharma , V. K. , Varghese , C. , Jaggi , S. ( 2002 ). On optimality of change-over designs balanced for first and second order residual effects . Metron 60 : 153 – 162 . [Google Scholar]) constructed circular first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs only for a class with parameters (v, p = 3n, n = v ²) and also showed its universal optimality. In this article, we consider circular construction of first- and second-order balanced repeated measurements designs and strongly balanced repeated measurements designs by using the method of cyclic shifts. Some new circular designs with parameters (v, p, n) for cases p = v, p < v and p > v are given.     

Computer-Generated Change-Over Designs for Correlated Observations

Change-over designs with independently distributed errors in the model have been studied extensively in the literature. Martin and Eccleston (2001 Martin , R. J. , Eccleston , J. A. ( 2001 ). Optimal and near optimal designs for dependent observations . Statist. Applic. 3 : 101 – 116 . [Google Scholar]) gave an algorithm for the generation of efficient change-over designs when the errors are correlated. This article proposes an algorithm for the generation of efficient change-over designs for estimation of direct effects of treatments in the presence of first-order residual effects in the model and when the errors are correlated.     

Diagnostic tests for the distribution of random effects in multivariate mixed effects models

Abstract

Fourier methods are proposed for testing the distribution of random effects in classical and robust multivariate mixed effects models. The test statistics involve estimation of the characteristic function of random effects. Theoretical and computational issues are addressed while Monte Carlo results show that the new procedures compare favorably with other methods.