Bayesian analysis of outlier problems using divergence measures

A Bayesian approach is presented for detecting influential observations using general divergence measures on the posterior distributions. A sampling-based approach using a Gibbs or Metropolis-within-Gibbs method is used to compute the posterior divergence measures. Four specific measures are proposed, which convey the effects of a single observation or covariate on the posterior. The technique is applied to a generalized linear model with binary response data, an overdispersed model and a nonlinear model. An asymptotic approximation using Laplace method to obtain the posterior divergence is also briefly discussed.     

皮亚杰的道德责任发生论及其教育意蕴

皮亚杰首次利用实验方法,从个体心理发展的微观角度,揭示了儿童的道德责任的发生过程和机制。道德责任是个体社会化的产物,经历了由他律的客观责任向自律的主观责任的进化。真正的道德责任产生于协作。皮亚杰的道德责任发生论对道德教育理论与实践的启示是:道德教育必须以自由为基础,充分利用学生的自主活动,才能教会学生负责。     

从动态顺应看《李尔王》的三种译本

Jef Verschueren的语用综论观下的顺应论的动态性认为,语言选择过程的动态顺应可以从三个方面得到体现:时间顺应、语境的顺应和语言线性结构的灵活变化。以该理论对《李尔王》三个不同时期的译本进行分析,指出翻译标准应该被不断地重新阐释以顺应不同时间、不同语境和不同交际目的。     

对创新高校思想政治理论课实践环节的思考

思想政治理论课实践教学环节是理论课教学体系的重要部分,是提升教学效果的有效途径之一。目前,实践教学存在着思想认识上有偏差、缺乏规范有效的组织管理、缺少资金和基地保障、缺乏科学的考核和评价体系等诸多问题,需要通过转变观念、建立和完善组织管理机制、设立专项经费和实践基地、建立健全实践教学评价体系等途径,使理论课实践教学更具有可操作性和实效性。     

论辞格理论与辞格发展之间的互动

古代修辞理论与辞格发展之间存在着复杂的互动关系。本文通过个案分析,证实了三点:其一,辞格的发展、演变本质上依赖于语言、文体本身提供的可能性,辞格理论的影响只是在发展方向上的诱导,并且这种诱导并不是总能成功;其二,这种诱导以理论被辞格使用者认同为前提,而特定文化背景或文学思潮可增强这种认同感,从而强化诱导;其三,当辞格使用者面对关于这一辞格的不同的甚至对立的理论主张时,他们会作出折中或取舍;而理论创造者面对辞格的发展变化,也有可能作出新的概括或补充。     

“联系说”视角下商标俗称抢注案的法律思考

商标权的客体为相关公众所认知的商标与商标所标识的商品或服务之间的联系,以此为基础可以认定商标俗称的抢注构成对商标权的侵犯,同时,商标俗称可以被认定为近似商标的一种形式,从而适用《商标法》第52条的规定。此外,在商标俗称的问题上,不能适用法律对驰名商标的特殊保护。     

深圳十年规划建设理论与实践初探

本文根据深圳十年规划与建设经验,对市场经济条件下的城市规划理论、乡镇城市化、开放型城市的交通与电讯网络、城市生态环境的保护、投资软硬环境的建设,以及如何提高城市规划的科学水平等问题作了探讨。     

静电电子回旋脉塞的单粒子理论

本文用单粒子理论研究了静电电子回旋脉塞。通过对静电电子回旋脉塞中的电子运动的分析,导出了电子与波互作用的非线性摆方程。文中用二阶扰动方法求解非线性摆方程,得到了TE_(mn)和TM_(mn)两种工作模式的静电电子回旋脉塞不稳定性线性增益公式,进一步证实了静电电子回旋脉塞不稳定性是存在的。     

Extended generalised Pareto models for tail estimation

The most popular approach in extreme value statistics is the modelling of threshold exceedances using the asymptotically motivated generalised Pareto distribution. This approach involves the selection of a high threshold above which the model fits the data well. Sometimes, few observations of a measurement process might be recorded in applications and so selecting a high quantile of the sample as the threshold leads to almost no exceedances. In this paper we propose extensions of the generalised Pareto distribution that incorporate an additional shape parameter while keeping the tail behaviour unaffected. The inclusion of this parameter offers additional structure for the main body of the distribution, improves the stability of the modified scale, tail index and return level estimates to threshold choice and allows a lower threshold to be selected. We illustrate the benefits of the proposed models with a simulation study and two case studies.     

An efficient sequential design of clinical trials

We propose an efficient group sequential monitoring rule for clinical trials. At each interim analysis both efficacy and futility are evaluated through a specified loss structure together with the predicted power. The proposed design is robust to a wide range of priors, and achieves the specified power with a saving of sample size compared to existing adaptive designs. A method is also proposed to obtain a reduced-bias estimator of treatment difference for the proposed design. The new approaches hold great potential for efficiently selecting a more effective treatment in comparative trials. Operating characteristics are evaluated and compared with other group sequential designs in empirical studies. An example is provided to illustrate the application of the method.