Decision Support by Interval SMART/SWING—Incorporating Imprecision in the SMART and SWING Methods

Interval judgments are a way of handling preferential and informational imprecision in multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). In this article, we study the use of intervals in the simple multiattribute rating technique (SMART) and SWING weighting methods. We generalize the methods by allowing the reference attribute to be any attribute, not just the most or the least important one, and by allowing the decision maker to reply with intervals to the weight ratio questions to account for his/her judgmental imprecision. We also study the practical and procedural implications of using imprecision intervals in these methods. These include, for example, how to select the reference attribute to identify as many dominated alternatives as possible. Based on the results of a simulation study, we suggest guidelines for how to carry out the weighting process in practice. Computer support can be used to make the process visual and interactive. We describe the WINPRE software for interval SMART/SWING, preference assessment by imprecise ratio statements (PAIRS), and preference programming. The use of interval SMART/SWING is illustrated by a job selection example.     

Exploring Infant Gesture and Joint Attention as Related Constructs and as Predictors of Later Language

In infancy, use of gesture and the ability to engage in joint attention with others both predict later language development. Conceptually, gesture and joint attention abilities may reflect a similar underlying social‐communicative skill. However, these abilities are often studied separately. Despite the fact that gesture is often used in episodes of joint attention, little is known about the degree to which measures of gesture use and joint attention ability are associated with one another or how they similarly, or differentially, predict children's language abilities. Participants in this study were 53 infants. At 12 months, multiple measures of infants’ gesture use were gleaned from a free–play interaction with a parent. Infants’ responding to and initiating joint attention were measured via the Early Social‐Communicative Scales (Mundy et al., 2003). Infants’ expressive and receptive language was measured at 24 months with the Mullen Scales of Early Learning (Mullen, 1995). A factor analysis including gesture and joint attention measures indicated that at 12 months, joint attention, particularly responding to joint attention, reflects a similar underlying construct with infant gesture use, yet they uniquely predict later language ability.     

Ambiguity aversion in first-price sealed-bid auctions

Experiments on first-price sealed-bid auctions with independent private values have shown that submitted bids typically exceed Nash-equilibrium predictions for risk-neutral bidders. Existing bidding models explain this phenomenon by assuming that the bidders are risk-averse and capable of drawing complete and correct inferences about their winning probabilities. In this article, we use the Choquet expected utility (CEU) theory to demonstrate that the observed bidding behavior can also be attributed to ambiguity aversion which causes the bidders to underestimate their chances of winning the auction. Empirical support for CEU bidding models is given through an analysis of recent bidding data.     

A trajectory analysis of body mass index for Finnish children

The aim of this study is to investigate the early development of body mass index (BMI), a standard tool for assessing the body shape and average level of adiposity for children and adults. The main aim of the study is to identify the primary trajectories of BMI development and to investigate the changes of certain growth characteristics over time. Based on our longitudinal data of 4223 Finnish children, we took anthropometric measurements from birth up to 15 years of age for birth years 1974, 1981, 1991 and 1995, but only up to 11 years of age for the birth year 2001. As a statistical method, we utilized trajectory analysis with the methods of nonparametric regression. We identified four main trajectories of BMI growth. Two of these trajectories do not seem to follow the normal growth pattern. The highest growth track appears to yield to a track that may yield to overweight and the low birth BMI track shows that the girls’ track differs that of boys on the same track, and on the normal tracks. The so-called adiposity rebound time decreased over time and started earlier for those on the overweight track. According to our study, this kind of acceleration of growth might be more of a general phenomenon that also relates to the other phases of BMI development. The major change seems to occur especially for those children on high growth tracks.     

Teacher stress and coping over an autumn term in Finland

Psychological stress, coping process and the relationships between stress and coping were examined among 66 teachers representing comprehensive and upper secondary schools in Finland. The research design was longitudinal. Each person was studied four times during the autumn term of 1991 using questionnaires, which were focused on teachers' stress feelings, ways of coping and social relations to colleagues and pupils during Mondays to Thursdays and Friday morning lessons. The results showed a clear accumulation of stress during the autumn term. Four different teacher groups emerged according to the type of stress reported: (1) teachers who were only moderately stressed, (2) those who were not at all stressed, (3) teachers who were exhausted throughout the term, and (4) those whose stress increased strongly during the term. These stress process groups differed with regard to their coping styles, but not background variables. On the level of the whole sample, different ways of coping were quite stable during the autumn term. The study is partially a replication of the longitudinal study on teachers' stress by Kinnunen (1989, 1988) and enables comparisons between stress process groupings between the years 1983 and 1991.     

Estimation of Downside Risks in Project Portfolio Selection

In project portfolio selection, the aim is to choose projects which are expected to offer most value and satisfy relevant risk and other constraints. In this study, we show that uncertainties about how much value the projects will offer, combined with the fact that only a subset of the proposed projects will be selected, lead to inaccurate risk estimates about the aggregate value provided by the selected project portfolio. In particular, when downside risks are measured in terms of lower percentiles of the distribution of portfolio value, these risk estimates will exhibit a systematic bias. For deriving unbiased risk estimates, we present a calibration framework in which the required calibration can be presented in closed‐form in some cases or, more generally, derived by using Monte Carlo simulation to study a large number of project selection decisions. We also show that when the decision must comply with risk constraints, the introduction of tighter (more demanding) risk constraints can counterintuitively aggravate the underestimation of risks. Finally, we present how the calibrated risk estimates can be employed to align the portfolio with the decision maker's risk preferences while eliminating systematic biases in risk estimates.     

Job-strain and well-being among Finnish social workers: exploring the differences in occupational well-being between child protection social workers and social workers without duties in child protection

Work-related mental distress and its impact on employees’ working life is a mounting issue among Finnish social workers. This article focuses on identifying the factors associated with child welfare social workers’ occupational well-being. The occupational well-being of Finnish child welfare social workers (N?=?364) and social workers whose duties do not include child protection work (N?=?524) was explored and compared with each other using t-test statistics and logistic regression analysis. The data, collected in 2014/2015, were obtained from an ongoing longitudinal cohort study on work-related well-being among Finnish public sector employees. A multi-dimensional and holistic approach to occupational well-being was used as the outline for the analysis and comparison of the two groups. Child protection social workers reported higher levels of burnout and secondary traumatic stress than social workers without child protection duties. Despite these burdens, both groups showed a similar level of general health, compassion satisfaction and overall occupational well-being. Individual and organizational factors associated with high occupational well-being were identified. Supervision was found to be an important supporting element. This study identified multiple determinants related to social workers’ occupational well-being, comprising positive and negative elements with regard to organizational and individual factors.