Predicting the Probability that a Chemical Causes Steatosis Using Adverse Outcome Pathway Bayesian Networks (AOPBNs)

Adverse outcome pathway Bayesian networks (AOPBNs) are a promising avenue for developing predictive toxicology and risk assessment tools based on adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). Here, we describe a process for developing AOPBNs. AOPBNs use causal networks and Bayesian statistics to integrate evidence across key events. In this article, we use our AOPBN to predict the occurrence of steatosis under different chemical exposures. Since it is an expert-driven model, we use external data (i.e., data not used for modeling) from the literature to validate predictions of the AOPBN model. The AOPBN accurately predicts steatosis for the chemicals from our external data. In addition, we demonstrate how end users can utilize the model to simulate the confidence (based on posterior probability) associated with predicting steatosis. We demonstrate how the network topology impacts predictions across the AOPBN, and how the AOPBN helps us identify the most informative key events that should be monitored for predicting steatosis. We close with a discussion of how the model can be used to predict potential effects of mixtures and how to model susceptible populations (e.g., where a mutation or stressor may change the conditional probability tables in the AOPBN). Using this approach for developing expert AOPBNs will facilitate the prediction of chemical toxicity, facilitate the identification of assay batteries, and greatly improve chemical hazard screening strategies.     

"象思维"视野下的中国智慧——读王树人近著《回归原创之思》

我国著名哲学家王树人先生的近著《回归原创之思———“象思维”视野下的中国智慧》(简称《回归原创之思》,江苏人民出版社,2005年)是积近20年心血之思想结晶。他本人借助在西方哲学领域的造诣,沉潜于中西比较和中国传统文化的研究当中,不断地探索、领悟和反思,而终于厚积薄发,作出了具有开创性和总结性的理论创获。王树人先生从事“象思维”和中西文化比较研究,是最近十几年的事。他早年曾师从我国哲学界老前辈贺麟、杨一之先生,专治西方哲学,他在黑格尔哲学研究领域更是国内公认的专家。在上世纪80年代赴德国访问讲学中,由于一个偶然机缘…     

方东美比较哲学思想探析

中西文化的比较与融合是二十世纪中国思想界的中心课题。方东美运用比较哲学的方法,直探中西文化精神的内涵与底蕴,他从中西整体思维出发,考察和比较了古希腊哲学和文艺复兴以降的西方近现代思潮以及中国思想文化在整体上的造境。他的比较哲学研究,已经深入中西文化的核心,但又难免东方中心论的理论局限。