A simulation testing and analysis of aggregate production planning strategies

In this study, a hybrid discrete event simulation (DES) and system dynamics (SD) methodology is applied to model and simulate aggregate production planning (APP) problem for the first time. DES is used to simulate operational-level and shop-floor activities incorporated into APP and estimate critical time-based control parameters used in SD model of APP and SD is used to simulate APP as a collection of aggregate-level strategic decisions. The main objective of this study is to determine and analyse the effectiveness of APP strategies regarding the Total Profit criterion by developing a hybrid DES–SD simulation model for APP in a real-world manufacturing company. The simulation results demonstrated that the priority of APP strategies with regards to Total Profit criterion is: (1) the pure chase strategy, (2) the modified chase strategy, (3) the pure level strategy, (4) the modified level strategy, (5) the mixed strategy and (6) the demand management strategy, respectively. The APP system is first simulated under mixed strategy (basic scenario) conditions to include all APP capacity and demand options in constructed SD simulation model to show a comprehensive view of APP components and their interdependent interactions. Then, the obtained results will be used as Total Profit measure to compare with system's performance under some experimental scenarios applying different APP strategies.     

An Evaluation of the NERJIT Priority Rule in a Kanban‐Controlled Flowshop

Significant progress in production and information technologies and innovations in management of operations during the last couple of decades have made the production of small lots and deployment of Just‐In‐Time (JIT) concepts in flowshops possible. As a result, some researchers and practitioners have been seeking to improve the performance of non‐repetitive systems using JIT concepts. In this process, the JIT concepts that were originally designed for mass production have been modified to adapt JIT to non‐repetitive systems. This article uses a priority rule that is based on real‐time demand and production information for sequencing jobs in a kanban‐controlled flowshop. The analysis of the effect of this priority rule; the number of kanbans; the length of the withdrawal cycle; First‐Come, First‐Served (FCFS); and Shortest Processing Time (SPT) on four performance measures—customer wait time, total inventory, input stock‐point inventory, and output stock‐point inventory, shows that the use of this priority rule results in a significant reduction of customer wait time and a slight decrease in inventory.     

The Two-Piece Normal-Laplace Distribution

This article considers the two-piece normal-Laplace (TPNL) distribution, a split skew distribution consisting of a normal part, and a Laplace part. The distribution is indexed by three parameters, representing location, scale, and shape. As illustrated with several examples, the TPNL family of distributions provides a useful alternative to other families of asymmetric distributions on the real line. However, because the likelihood function is not well behaved, standard theory of maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation does not apply to the TPNL family. In particular, the likelihood function can have multiple local maxima. We provide a procedure for computing ML estimators, and prove consistency and asymptotic normality of ML estimators, using non standard methods.     

NERJIT: Using Net Requirement Data in Kanban‐Controlled Jumbled‐Flow Shops

The bold lines that have separated the application of specific production planning and control techniques to specific production systems are being blurred by continuous advances in production technologies and innovative operational procedures. Oral communication among dispatchers and production units has given way to electronic communication between production planners and these units by continuous progress in information technologies. Current production literature alludes to the idea that, collectively, these advances have paved the way for application of Just‐In‐Time (JIT) production concepts, which were originally developed for mass production systems, in intermittent production systems. But this literature does not actually consider the possibility. This article presents a modification to JIT procedures to make them more suitable for jumbled‐flow shops. This article suggests providing real‐time information about net‐requirements for each product to each work center operator for setting production priorities at each work center. Simulation experiments conducted for this study show that using Net‐Requirements in JIT (NERJIT) reduces customer wait time by 45–60% while reducing inventory slightly. The analysis of work centers’ input and output stock‐point inventories shows that using the information about net‐requirements results in production of items that are in current demand. NERJIT results in smaller input stock‐point inventory and availability of products with higher priority in the output stock‐points of work centers.     

An Analysis of Dual‐Kanban Just‐In‐Time Systems in a Non‐Repetitive Environment

Recent advances in approaches and production technologies for the production of goods and services have made just‐in‐time (JIT) a strong alternative for use in intermittent and small batch production systems, especially when time‐based competition is the norm and a low inventory is a must. However, the conventional JIT system is designed for mass production with a stable master production schedule. This paper suggests supplementing the information provided by production kanbans with information about customer waiting lines to be used by operators to schedule production in each work‐station of intermittent and small batch production systems. This paper uses simulation to analyze the effect of four scheduling policy variables—number of kanbans, length of the withdrawal cycle, information about customer waiting lines, and priority rules on two performance measures—customer wait‐time and inventory. The results show that using information about customer waiting lines reduces customer wait‐time by about 30% while also reducing inventory by about 2%. In addition, the effect of information about customer waiting lines overshadows the effect of priority rules on customer wait‐time and inventory.     

精准识别政策的僵化执行及偏差分析

精准识别执行偏差影响精准扶贫政策的成效。基于山西吕梁的个案研究,发现农村执行者虽然严格执行上级的精准识别政策,但存在执行结果与地方实际发生偏差的问题,这一现象使人们认为精准扶贫不精准不公平。执行偏差产生的原因有三：（1）中央政策的贯彻过程实际是政策精细化的过程,精细化的政策可操作性强但相对教条;（2）基层执行者往往选择性忽视一些不可量化、不易操作、不影响考核的弹性指标,而其中一些正是政策的内核与精髓,如动态化管理和群众公认原则;（3）具体执行者在需要做出灵活调整时往往“一刀切”地僵化执行政策。如何保障政策的无偏差执行,又符合各地实际情况,是政策制定者和监督者应该考虑的问题。     

Analysis of Local Decision Rules in a Dual-Kanban Flow Shop

A recent article reported the results of a study on the effects of two kanban policy variables—the length of withdrawal cycle and the type of priority rule—on average customer wait time and total inventory. This study extends that work by adding two kanban policy variables and two performance criteria. It reports the results of simulation experiments that were conducted to determine how four policy variables—withdrawal cycle, priority rule, status of waiting withdrawal kanbans, and number of kanbans influence four performance criteria—average customer wait-time, total inventory, and average number of full containers in the input and output stock points of stations. It was found that the information about waiting withdrawal kanbans in sequencing decisions results in the simultaneous improvement in two conflicting objectives—customer wait time and total inventory. Also, the effects of including the information regarding the status of waiting withdrawal kanbans on system performance are larger than the effects associated with the type of priority rule. The results provide insights into determining the level of each policy variable while fully considering the possible interactions among the variables and the levels of other policy variables to improve system performance. These insights allow for setting the levels of policy variables to make the improvement process smooth.