全文获取类型
收费全文 | 574篇 |
免费 | 10篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 102篇 |
民族学 | 4篇 |
人口学 | 61篇 |
丛书文集 | 6篇 |
理论方法论 | 69篇 |
综合类 | 6篇 |
社会学 | 250篇 |
统计学 | 86篇 |
出版年
2020年 | 7篇 |
2019年 | 14篇 |
2018年 | 12篇 |
2017年 | 11篇 |
2016年 | 17篇 |
2015年 | 10篇 |
2014年 | 5篇 |
2013年 | 83篇 |
2012年 | 14篇 |
2011年 | 14篇 |
2010年 | 14篇 |
2009年 | 21篇 |
2008年 | 12篇 |
2007年 | 17篇 |
2006年 | 12篇 |
2005年 | 16篇 |
2004年 | 20篇 |
2003年 | 13篇 |
2002年 | 17篇 |
2001年 | 13篇 |
2000年 | 12篇 |
1999年 | 18篇 |
1998年 | 10篇 |
1997年 | 5篇 |
1996年 | 4篇 |
1995年 | 7篇 |
1994年 | 9篇 |
1993年 | 7篇 |
1992年 | 5篇 |
1991年 | 8篇 |
1990年 | 6篇 |
1989年 | 4篇 |
1988年 | 5篇 |
1987年 | 7篇 |
1986年 | 4篇 |
1985年 | 12篇 |
1984年 | 7篇 |
1983年 | 9篇 |
1982年 | 8篇 |
1981年 | 5篇 |
1980年 | 6篇 |
1979年 | 9篇 |
1978年 | 9篇 |
1977年 | 9篇 |
1976年 | 13篇 |
1975年 | 8篇 |
1974年 | 6篇 |
1973年 | 8篇 |
1970年 | 4篇 |
1967年 | 3篇 |
排序方式: 共有584条查询结果,搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
2.
3.
Emmanuelle Cam Bernard Cadiou James E. Hines Jean Yves Monnat 《Journal of applied statistics》2002,29(1):163-185
Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions 相似文献
4.
The revised accreditation standards for marriage and family therapy programs (Manual on Accreditation, 1988) require that the curriculum reflect an emphasis on “issues of gender and ethnicity as they relate to marital and family therapy” (p. 13). Training approaches that are described in the professional literature tend to emphasize an understanding of ethnic minorities while deemphasizing the trainee's own ethnic and cultural roots. As such, training lacks dynamic integrity for the white, middle-class trainee. This paper describes a rationale for addressing the ethnic and cultural background of all family therapy trainees and provides training activities to accomplish this end. 相似文献
5.
Emmanuelle Cam Bernard Cadiou James E. Hines Jean Yves Monnat 《Journal of applied statistics》2002,29(1-4):163-185
Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions 相似文献
6.
Joshua Goldstein 《Journal of historical sociology》1998,11(2):153-184
This paper examines how the Chinese state's prenatal health care campaigns of the early 1950s attempted to redefine women's social and political roles. The replacement of local midwifing practices with a uniform birthing method in order to radically reduce infant and mother mortality entailed complex ramifications regarding the relationship of women vis-a-vis the state. Campaigns involved demonizing "traditional" midwifing, promoting a statistical vision of female reproductivity and children as national resources, and the isolation of individual mothers as directly responsible to the state for managing reproduction for the national interest. In sum, a physiological definition of gender was used to open women's bodies to state management. Utopic visions of painless childbirth and of the socialist nation as a giant new family were used to promote participation in grassroots campaigns, but the sources also point to forms of local resistance to the micro-level reorganization of power these campaigns intended. 相似文献
7.
Can recessions, or serious turning points in general, be predicted? Or do forecasters tend to assume that the future will continue as an extension of the near past. Theoretical evidence and practical observations tend to support the hypothesis that forecasters are unduly influenced by current events and feel that booms or contractions in the economy will continue for much longer than they actually do. In the opinion of the authors this is a serious shortcoming of a good majority of those involved with forecasting who do not seem to be learning from experience. The basic question which the authors consider in this article is whether it is possible to avoid either of the two extremes. If this is possible, they argue that this will allow economic signs to be correctly interpreted, which ‘quite often can give clear indications of forthcoming changes in the level of economic activity’. 相似文献
8.
Bernard Taylor 《Long Range Planning》1975,8(4):27-40
In recent years there has been a good deal of discussion amongst planning specialists and academics about the gap which exists between the theory of planning as set out in journals and textbooks, and the practice of planning in private and public organizations. Planners are continually complaining about the resistance to planning by top management and operating managers in divisions and departments.In this article the author aims to produce a reconciliation between theory and practice and to discuss what alternative strategies are open to planners in devising planning systems for their organizations.He suggests that the problem has its origin in the fact that corporate planning theory was first developed by management scientists as a total systems approach. Corporate planners have failed to sell an integrated planning system either as programme budgeting or as corporate planning. Research suggests that a management team can only adopt and implement a comprehensive planning system in very special circumstances, e.g. when the organization's survival is threatened, a new management team has been appointed and the staff of the organization are ready to accept radical change.In normal circumstances the planner is wrong to advocate a ‘root and branch’ solution. He must diagnose the planning needs of the organization and his objective must be not merely to establish a particular planning procedure but rather to discover how he can best improve the quality of management decisions.Recent studies on strategy formation indicate that the introduction of a formal planning procedure is only a partial answer to the problem of improving the quality of management decisions.The paper reviews various approaches to planning and considers how they relate to organizations with different strategic problems, with differing organization structures and various management styles. 相似文献
9.
This paper concerns the geometric treatment of graphical models using Bayes linear methods. We introduce Bayes linear separation as a second order generalised conditional independence relation, and Bayes linear graphical models are constructed using this property. A system of interpretive and diagnostic shadings are given, which summarise the analysis over the associated moral graph. Principles of local computation are outlined for the graphical models, and an algorithm for implementing such computation over the junction tree is described. The approach is illustrated with two examples. The first concerns sales forecasting using a multivariate dynamic linear model. The second concerns inference for the error variance matrices of the model for sales, and illustrates the generality of our geometric approach by treating the matrices directly as random objects. The examples are implemented using a freely available set of object-oriented programming tools for Bayes linear local computation and graphical diagnostic display. 相似文献
10.
Bernard Sébastien David Hoffman Clémence Rigaux Franck Pellissier Jérôme Msihid 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2016,15(6):450-458
This article describes how a frequentist model averaging approach can be used for concentration–QT analyses in the context of thorough QTc studies. Based on simulations, we have concluded that starting from three candidate model families (linear, exponential, and Emax) the model averaging approach leads to treatment effect estimates that are quite robust with respect to the control of the type I error in nearly all simulated scenarios; in particular, with the model averaging approach, the type I error appears less sensitive to model misspecification than the widely used linear model. We noticed also few differences in terms of performance between the model averaging approach and the more classical model selection approach, but we believe that, despite both can be recommended in practice, the model averaging approach can be more appealing because of some deficiencies of model selection approach pointed out in the literature. We think that a model averaging or model selection approach should be systematically considered for conducting concentration–QT analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献