Decision analysis for practical negotiation application

The family of decision analysis techniques can be applied effectively to support practical negotiators in international settings. These techniques are most appropriate in support of the prenegotiation phase, when parties are diagnosing the situation, assessing their own plans and strategies, and evaluating likely reactions and outcomes. The paper identifies how these approaches have and can be used to assist negotiation practitioners, offers a rationale for the application of decision analytic approaches in terms of the particular analytical requirements of the prenegotiation period, suggests how these process-oriented tools can be integrated with substantive tools, and discusses ways in which these tools can be presented and delivered to practitioners in a practical and confidence-building manner.     

A Rejoinder to Forman on AHP,with Emphasis on the Requirements of Composite Ratio Scales*

In an earlier paper [11], the problems of rank reversals and invalid composite priorities in AHP were addressed by modifications to the AHP procedure. That solution was subsequently criticized [5]. In this paper, we rebut these criticisms, and we show how rank reversals in AHP can arise merely from the process of normalizing local priorities.     

When women veterans return: The role of postsecondary education in transition in their civilian lives

Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the current state of postsecondary educational settings’ outreach to military women who become students postservice. Participants: Data for the present cross-sectional study were obtained from the American College Health Association’s (ACHA) 2011–2014 National College Health Assessment II (NCHA). Methods: Demographic characteristics of the study sample were explored by calculating frequencies and percentages by military service status. Research questions were explored with Fisher’s exact test, maximum likelihood multiple logistic regression, as appropriate. Results: Women service member and veteran students received health information from their university/college less often than women students with no military experience on the following topics: alcohol and other drug use, depression and anxiety, sexual assault and relationship violence prevention, and stress reduction. Conclusions: The findings of this research identified clear gaps in service provision for women student veterans on college campuses and provided some possible models for intervention development.     

Ambiguous Criteria Weights in AHP: Consequences and Solutions*

Two related streams of criticism of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) have not yet been satisfactorily resolved, although both date from the early 1980s. The first relates to ambiguity in the meaning of the relative importance of one criterion as compared to another. The second is concerned with reversals of rank alleged to be possible when new options are introduced in an AHP problem. Both proponents and critics of AHP agree that rank reversals occur, but disagree on the legitimacy of such reversals. This paper shows that there is a necessary correspondence between the manner in which criteria importances are interpreted and computed and the manner in which the weights of the options under each criterion are normalized. In general, if this relationship is ignored, incorrect weights are generated for options under consideration regardless of whether new options are added or deleted. A rank reversal on the addition of an option is merely symptomatic of this fact, and such reversals do not occur when the correspondence condition is met.     

Kurt Lewin Address: Influence, Power, Religion, and the Mechanisms of Social Control

A power/interaction model of interpersonal influence is applied to the analysis of religions as mechanisms of social control. The original six bases of power presented by French and Raven (1959)—coercion, reward, legitimate position, expert, referent, and informational—are expanded to include variants of these bases: personal reward and coercion and legitimacy of equity, reciprocity, and responsibility (Raven, 1992). Over centuries, certain sages, seers, and chieftains, feeling that they knew what was best for their people individually and collectively, have attempted to utilize these power resources (e.g., to counter tendencies toward murder, theft, adultery, mayhem, or harmful dietary practices). To implement power strategies, various preparatory devices were developed, which include the establishment of a Deity, whose ultimate reward and coercive power is enhanced by omnipotence; whose omnipresence establishes necessary continual surveillance; and whose ultimate expertise follows from omniscience. Much of what has been developed in holy works, and in supportive art and literature, can then be seen as further preparing the bases of power for social control. Tensions result when a populace that is educated to expect informational power is faced with a religion that emphasizes extreme coercion, reward, ultimate legitimate and expert power.     

Probability computations for an extension of the geometric distribution

An extension of the stochastic process associated with the geometric distribution is presented. Combinatorial arguments are used to derive probabilities for various events of interest. Probabilities are approximated by evaluating truncated series. Bounds on the errors of approximation are developed. An example is presented and some additional applications are noted.     

A note on estimation in bernoulli trials with dependence

Finite sample properties of estimators for the parameters of a dependent Bernoulli process are investigated using Monte Carlo techniques. A ratio estimator is proposed for the dependence parameter of the model and is compared to the approximate maximum likelihood estimator given by Klotz. It is shown that both estimators have a downward bias that is extreme in certain cases and that samples well in excess of 200 may be necessary before the asymptotic theory can be applied.     

Oral health among student veterans: Effects on mental and physical health

Abstract

Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore differences in oral health among students by military service status in postsecondary settings. Participants: Secondary data were obtained from the American College Health Association’s 2011–2014 National College Health Assessment II. Method: Demographic characteristics of the study sample were explored by calculating frequencies and percentages by military service status. Research questions were explored with maximum likelihood multiple logistic regression. Results: Service member and veteran students are at greater risk for neglecting health behaviors associated with positive oral health, including that they were less likely to get dental exams and that those who deployed in the past were the least likely to be practicing good oral health. Conclusions: The results suggest that improving oral health will contribute to improving health and mental health outcomes in this population, and provide important information for health specialists working with service members and veterans on college campuses.     

The Bases of Power and the Power/Interaction Model of Interpersonal Influence

This article provides a summary of work done by Raven and his colleagues on bases of power. It ranges from the initial work in 1959 of French and Raven through decades of follow-up work, and ties the work to that of others doing work on power bases. After the summary, the author responds to a series of questions that probe the work in greater depth, allowing explication of much of the thinking underlying and leading to publications of Raven and colleagues that are well known to social psychologists.     

Mesothelioma: Risk Apportionment Among Asbestos Exposure Sources

The mesothelioma epidemic in the United States, which peaked during the 2000–2004 period, can be traced to high‐level asbestos exposures experienced by males in occupational settings prior to the full recognition of the disease‐causing potential of asbestos and the establishment of enforceable asbestos exposure limits by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) in 1971. Many individuals diagnosed with mesothelioma where asbestos has been identified as a contributing cause of the disease have filed claims seeking compensation from asbestos settlement trusts or through the court system. An individual with mesothelioma typically has been exposed to asbestos in more than one setting and from more than one asbestos product. Apportioning risk for mesothelioma among contributing factors is an ongoing problem faced by occupational disease compensation boards, juries, parties responsible for paying damages, and currently by the U.S. Senate in its efforts to formulate a bill establishing an asbestos settlement trust. In this article we address the following question: If an individual with mesothelioma where asbestos has been identified as a contributing cause were to be compensated for his or her disease, how should that compensation be apportioned among those responsible for the asbestos exposures? For the purposes of apportionment, we assume that asbestos is the only cause of mesothelioma and that every asbestos exposure contributes, albeit differentially, to the risk. We use an extension of the mesothelioma risk model initially proposed in the early 1980s to quantify the contribution to risk of each exposure as a percentage of the total risk. The percentage for each specific discrete asbestos exposure depends on the start and end dates, the intensity, and the asbestos fiber type for the exposure. We provide justification for the use of the mesothelioma risk model for apportioning risk and discuss how to assess uncertainty associated with its application.