HEAVY-TAILED-DISTRIBUTED THRESHOLD STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS IN FINANCIAL TIME SERIES

To capture mean and variance asymmetries and time‐varying volatility in financial time series, we generalize the threshold stochastic volatility (THSV) model and incorporate a heavy‐tailed error distribution. Unlike existing stochastic volatility models, this model simultaneously accounts for uncertainty in the unobserved threshold value and in the time‐delay parameter. Self‐exciting and exogenous threshold variables are considered to investigate the impact of a number of market news variables on volatility changes. Adopting a Bayesian approach, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate all unknown parameters and latent variables. A simulation experiment demonstrates good estimation performance for reasonable sample sizes. In a study of two international financial market indices, we consider two variants of the generalized THSV model, with US market news as the threshold variable. Finally, we compare models using Bayesian forecasting in a value‐at‐risk (VaR) study. The results show that our proposed model can generate more accurate VaR forecasts than can standard models.     

Responding to child deaths: the work of Australia's Victorian Child Death Review Committee

The Victorian Child Death Review Committee (VCDRC) in Australia is a multidisciplinary Ministerial Advisory Committee established to review the deaths of children either currently child protection clients or known to the statutory child protection system. The Committee provides advice about each child death as well as insights into what are the surrounding patterns and issues. Key to this role is examining the contribution of the service sectors to the protection of children and the routine practices that are in place to respond to children and vulnerability. This paper provides a snapshot of the cases referred to the VCDRC and the key messages for practice drawn from them. What emerges is that often the threshold for when statutory child protection services must be involved in child and family matters can be ambiguous and that agreement about intervention, the level and nature of need or risk, and when cumulative harm and neglect require statutory responses are not always shared between agencies. It is clear that the lack of common frameworks about what constitutes child protection intervention challenges services. It is recommended that there be and used agreed definitions and frameworks to ensure shared understandings and collaborative responses across the service and legal systems.     

Exercise-related menstrual dysfunction: implications for menopausal health

Physical activity is a well recognized approach to the enhancement of general health and wellbeing in both healthy and diseased populations. However, excessive activity can result in exercise-related menstrual dysfunction (ERMD), which can adversely affect bone health and increase the risk of infertility and cardiovascular events in later life. Physicians should maintain a high awareness of EMRD in assessing health risks in the menopausal woman.     

On hysteretic vector autoregressive model with applications

This paper proposes a new hysteretic vector autoregressive (HVAR) model in which the regime switching may be delayed when the hysteresis variable lies in a hysteresis zone. We integrate an adapted multivariate Student-t distribution from amending the scale mixtures of normal distributions. This HVAR model allows for a higher degree of flexibility in the degrees of freedom for each time series. We use the proposed model to test for a causal relationship between any two target time series. Using posterior odds ratios, we overcome the limitations of the classical approach to multiple testing. Both simulated and real examples herein help illustrate the suggested methods. We apply the proposed HVAR model to investigate the causal relationship between the quarterly growth rates of gross domestic product of United Kingdom and United States. Moreover, we check the pairwise lagged dependence of daily PM2.5 levels in three districts of Taipei.     

Functional and emotional traits of corporate social media message strategies: Behavioral insights from S&P 500 Facebook data

Drawing from literature regarding public engagement, the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), computer-mediated communication research, and emotion psychology, this study examines the effects of companies’ social media communication strategies on public engagement behaviors as indexed by post likes, shares, and comments. Specifically, it investigates how corporate Facebook posts’ functional traits (functional interactivity and vividness) and emotional traits (emotion presence, valence, and strength) impact public engagement online. Through data mining and computer-assisted sentiment analysis of 33,379 posts from 106 Standard & Poor 500 companies’ Facebook accounts, this study finds a negative effect of functional interactivity but a positive effect of vividness on engagement. It also shows that emotional traits overall yield stronger public engagement outcomes. Two-way interactions between emotional and functional features are also detected. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

Mindful of the Intersession Break in Family Therapy: The Time to Think Experiment

The Time to Think Experiment researches the experience of clinicians, consumers, and families of an intersession break, which has been used historically in various models of family therapy training. This qualitative pilot study explores the experiences of 21 clinicians, 19 consumers, and six family members using this break for reflection, across the domains of family and couple therapy, individual therapy, group work, and supervision in a mental health service covering the whole age range. Using a phenomenological design, the analysis included narrative, thematic, content, and comparative techniques. The paper considers the impact of privileging reflection in the therapy process, in a climate where models, work cultures, and general lifestyles may not encourage it. Using the intersession break to create space to ‘be’ in the therapy process is one way to integrate mindful and family therapy practice. The emerging themes of an intersession break to promote a richer and deeper therapy experience, and the apparent shift of responsibility for change from clinicians to consumers is discussed.     

Migration Planning Among Female Prospective Labour Migrants from Nepal: A Comparison of First‐Time and Repeat‐Migrants

As international female labour migration has increased, so too have efforts to prevent the exploitation of labour migrants. However, evidence to underpin prevention efforts remains limited, with little known about labour migrants’ migration planning processes. Using data from a survey of female prospective labour migrants from Nepal, this article compares socio‐demographics and migration‐planning processes between first‐time and repeat‐migrants. We identified several factors which might increase repeat‐migrants’ vulnerability to exploitation during the migration process, or obstruct their engagement in pre‐migration interventions: more rapid migration planning than first‐time migrants; lower involvement in community groups; and a perception that they already have the knowledge they need. Only one‐third of repeat‐migrants planned to go to the same destination and 42 per cent to work in the same sector as previously. With repeat‐migration a common livelihoods strategy, it is crucial that interventions are guided by evidence on the needs of both first‐time‐ and repeat‐migrants.