Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery

Managing risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understand relationships between decisions at the policy level (e.g., regulation) and the technical level (e.g., optimal infrastructure restoration). We focus on three issues that arise when integrating such levels. First, optimal restoration strategies driven by financial and operational factors evolve differently compared to those driven by socioeconomic and humanitarian factors. Second, regulatory aspects have a significant impact on recovery dynamics (e.g., effective recovery is most challenging in societies with weak institutions and regulation, where individual interests may compromise societal well‐being). And third, the decision space (i.e., available actions) in postdisaster phases is strongly determined by predisaster decisions (e.g., resource allocation). The proposed optimization framework addresses these issues by using: (1) parametric analyses to test the influence of operational and socioeconomic factors on optimization outcomes, (2) regulatory constraints to model and assess the cost and benefit (for a variety of actors) of enforcing specific policy‐related conditions for the recovery process, and (3) sensitivity analyses to capture the effect of predisaster decisions on recovery. We illustrate our methodology with an example regarding the recovery of interdependent water, power, and gas networks in Shelby County, TN (USA), with exposure to natural hazards.     

侵权诉讼的膨胀及对策

侵权纠纷是民事诉讼机制解决的主要对象。随着社会的发展,侵权案件逐渐增多,过量的侵权诉讼会带来很多不良后果,不仅是对法律制度本身的损害,更对经济发展产生严重的负面影响。要解决侵权诉讼的膨胀问题,必须找到控制侵权诉讼的正确途径。     

On Optimality of Bayesian Wavelet Estimators

Abstract.  We investigate the asymptotic optimality of several Bayesian wavelet estimators, namely, posterior mean, posterior median and Bayes Factor, where the prior imposed on wavelet coefficients is a mixture of a mass function at zero and a Gaussian density. We show that in terms of the mean squared error, for the properly chosen hyperparameters of the prior, all the three resulting Bayesian wavelet estimators achieve optimal minimax rates within any prescribed Besov space     for p  ≥ 2. For 1 ≤  p  < 2, the Bayes Factor is still optimal for (2 s +2)/(2 s +1) ≤  p  < 2 and always outperforms the posterior mean and the posterior median that can achieve only the best possible rates for linear estimators in this case.     

司法现代化在我国农村的困境及出路

司法现代化在农村正遭遇着种种困境,这有其深刻的历史背景和现实基础。实现农村的司法现代化,一方面要对传统法律文化进行认真彻底的反思,肃清沿袭至今的消极影响;另一方面则应从制度上保障司法的公正性,在司法领域树立法律的权威。     

Organisationsentwicklung als Thema von Erwachsenenbildung und Supervisionscurricula

Zusammenfassung  Der Beitrag beschreibt Planung, Verlauf und abschlie?ende Beurteilung eines gruppendynamischen Seminars, in dem für angehende Supervisorinnen und Supervisoren das Thema Organisations-Entwicklung dargestellt und vermittelt werden sollte. Ausgangspunkt war die Kl?rung des Inhaltsraums von Organisations-Entwicklung als geplantem sozialen Wandel, der auf sozialwissenschaftlicher Grundlage zielgerichtet, strategisch und mit Zeitperspektive in der Zusammenarbeit zwischen externer und interner Sach-, Prozess- und Entscheidungskompetenz durchgeführt wird. Als Ziele des Seminars wurden festgelegt, Organisations-Entwicklung als sozialwissenschaftliches Instrument zu begründen, Organisations-Entwicklung-Schritte zu konzipieren und sie kollegial zu kommunizieren. Darüber hinaus wurden Qualit?tskriterien für das Seminar formuliert: Praxisn?he, Kl?rung des Inhaltsraum Selbstorganisation, Selbststeuerung, Ressourcenaktivierung, Konfliktregulierung, Analyse des Gruppenprozesses, Nutzung von Feldkompetenz und Verhaltensmodellen, Etablierung von Feedbackschleifen, Koordination und Synergie, kollegialer Austausch und Kl?rung pers?nlicher Organisations-Entwicklungs-Fragen. Bausteine und Lernorte des Seminars waren das Plenum, die Lernpartnerschaft, das OE-Team, die Beobachterfunktion, die Tagesreflexion, die Sitzung Frage und Antwort, die Darstellung von Praxisf?llen, das Plenum-Feinsteuerung, die Analyse der Arbeitsprozesse des OE-Teams sowie Transfer und Auswertung. Der tats?chliche Verlauf des Seminars wird aus der Perspektive des Leiters kommentiert. Anhand von Verlaufsbeobachtungen und Teilnehmer?u?erungen wird der Eindruck begründet, dass diese Form des Vorgehens als lernintensiv, autonomief?rdernd und für die zu erwerbende Supervisionskompetenz als praxisrelevant betrachtet werden kann.

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This article describes the plantification, progress and final evaluation of a group-dynamic seminar for future supervisors in which the topic organization development was presented and introduced. The content of organization development was first defined as a planned social change which is executed based on social sciences in a goal-oriented, strategic way which considers the time perspective of the cooperation between external and internal specialised-, process- and decision competence. Goals of the seminar were to justify that organisation development is a social science tool, to plan organization development steps and to communicate them to peer seminar participants. Further more, the following quality criteria for the seminar were formulated: practice orientation, definition of self-organisation content, self regulation, resources activation, conflict regulation, group process analysis, field competence and behaviour models usage, feedback establishment, coordination and synergy, mutual peer exchange and finding answers to personal questions about organization development. The building blocks and learn places of the seminar were the plenary sessions, the learning partnership, the od-teams, the observer function, the day analysis, the questions and answers session, the case study presentation, the analysis of the work processes as well as transfer and evaluation. The progression of the seminar is commented from the point of view of the seminar leader. Progress observations and participant’s feedback justify the impression that this way to conceptualise provides an intensive learning experience, supports autonomy and provides relevant and practical supervision competence.

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J?rg Fengler ist Professor der Psychologie an der Universit?t zu K?ln, Heilp?dagogische Fakult?t. Arbeitsschwerpunkte sind u.a. P?dagogische und Klinische Psychologie. Er ist Herausgeber dieser Zeitschrift.     

谈鲁迅小说中的逻辑问题

本文运用演绎逻辑、归纳逻辑和辩证逻辑的基本方法 ,对鲁迅小说中的逻辑问题进行分析 ,得到一些有益的结论