Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales

Summary.  A crucial issue in the current global warming debate is the effect of vegetation and soils on carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations in the atmosphere. Vegetation can extract CO₂ through photosynthesis, but respiration, decay of soil organic matter and disturbance effects such as fire return it to the atmosphere. The balance of these processes is the net carbon flux. To estimate the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales, we address the statistical problem of inference for the sum of multiple outputs from a complex deterministic computer code whose input parameters are uncertain. The code is a process model which simulates the carbon dynamics of vegetation and soils, including the amount of carbon that is stored as a result of photosynthesis and the amount that is returned to the atmosphere through respiration. The aggregation of outputs corresponding to multiple sites and types of vegetation in a region gives an estimate of the total carbon flux for that region over a period of time. Expert prior opinions are elicited for marginal uncertainty about the relevant input parameters and for correlations of inputs between sites. A Gaussian process model is used to build emulators of the multiple code outputs and Bayesian uncertainty analysis is then used to propagate uncertainty in the input parameters through to uncertainty on the aggregated output. Numerical results are presented for England and Wales in the year 2000. It is estimated that vegetation and soils in England and Wales constituted a net sink of 7.55 Mt C (1 Mt C = 10¹² g of carbon) in 2000, with standard deviation 0.56 Mt C resulting from the sources of uncertainty that are considered.     

Cognitive and interpersonal abilities related to the primary activities of R&D managers

This study attempted to identify the primary activities performed by R&D managers at different supervisory levels, and the cognitive and interpersonal ability requirements that underlie these activities. A task inventory containing 244 managerial tasks was completed by 117 R&D managers in nine organizations. The 48 tasks which managers rated as having spent the most time were factor analyzed, resulting in the identification of three primary activities: project management, personnel supervision, and strategic planning. Furthermore, these activities varied with supervisory level, with R&D managers performing a wider range of these activities with the progression from first-line to upper-level management.Thirty R&D managers later rated the degree to which 19 cognitive and interpersonal abilities were required for performing these primary activities. Strategic planning was rated as requiring significantly higher levels of oral expression, logical reasoning, originality, fluency of ideas, oral defense, and resistance to premature judgement than was required for the other two primary activities. Personnel supervision required a higher level of social sensitivity than was required for the other two activities. Project management required high levels of information ordering, oral fact- finding ability, problem sensitivity, and oral and written comprehension. Implications of the findings for understanding R&D managerial performance and personnel staffing functions are discussed.     

Effective boards: how executive directors define and develop them

There is growing recognition in the nonprofit field that the executive director has a key role in determining whether the board of directors will function effectively. To aid executives in this vital role, two recent studies defined a "good board" from the point of view of two samples of executive directors of community agencies, then sought factors related to board performance as measured by this definition. In interviews, executives whose boards scored higher than their peers on this performance measurement related how they work with their boards in such areas as recruitment of new members, financial management, fundraising, and leadership development.     

The use of a model in long term planning—A case history

Long term planning in companies can range from the partial simplistic approach to a structured time-consuming ritual. Either extreme can bring planning into disrepute, and both reflect the lack of the proper tools of the trade. Models, by themselves, are no panacea, but properly conceived, constructed, and developed they can transform the planning process. The key to effective and practical models is use, and this can be achieved through direct management involvement on the model's development, and by making sure the model is basically simple and flexible. This article describes how such a model was constructed using a modular approach, and how it was used effectively in long term planning.     

Negotiating Tensions between Methodology and Procedural Ethics

In this commentary, I consider what can go wrong in research when tensions arise between methodology and procedural ethics. I recount difficulties negotiating and implementing a participant recruitment strategy during my doctoral research project, which aimed to explore the experiences of people affected by dementia in the United Kingdom who were disengaged from services. To access this hard-to-reach population, I intended to adopt an informal recruitment strategy, snowball sampling from personal contacts and striking up conversations in public places. The procedural ethics committee were unhappy with this approach, deeming it potentially coercive. They suggested a more formal recruitment strategy enacted via emailing community organisations and churches. This approach entailed practical consequences that ultimately weakened the study sample, data and findings. This case raises questions about the negotiation of tensions between methodology and procedural ethics in gerontological research.     

When women veterans return: The role of postsecondary education in transition in their civilian lives

Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the current state of postsecondary educational settings’ outreach to military women who become students postservice. Participants: Data for the present cross-sectional study were obtained from the American College Health Association’s (ACHA) 2011–2014 National College Health Assessment II (NCHA). Methods: Demographic characteristics of the study sample were explored by calculating frequencies and percentages by military service status. Research questions were explored with Fisher’s exact test, maximum likelihood multiple logistic regression, as appropriate. Results: Women service member and veteran students received health information from their university/college less often than women students with no military experience on the following topics: alcohol and other drug use, depression and anxiety, sexual assault and relationship violence prevention, and stress reduction. Conclusions: The findings of this research identified clear gaps in service provision for women student veterans on college campuses and provided some possible models for intervention development.     

The effects of teenage childbearing on adult soft skills development

Research examining impacts of teenage childbearing on economic and social outcomes have focused on completed schooling and labor force outcomes. In this paper, we examine outcomes that have remained largely unexplored, soft skills and personality. We use Add Health data to construct relevant controls for teenage mothers and explore a set of measures that proxy for what is usually deemed in economics as “non-cognitive” or “soft skill” traits. We find that teenage childbearing increases impulsivity, a trait that has been found to have negative effects on a large set of outcomes and has a negative effect on other personality traits perceived as positive, such as openness to experiences. Our results remain consistent through a set of robustness checks, and we interpret our findings to suggest that adolescence may be a sensitive period for the development of soft skills and that childbearing may interrupt this process.     

Farmer participation in voluntary land diversion schemes: Some predictions from a survey

National and European agricultural policy schemes are now coming forward which rely on land diversion to achieve a variety of supply control, social and environmental policy goals. Operating on a voluntary basis, these will depend for their success on sufficient numbers of farmers agreeing to enrol land in sufficient quantities and in the right localities. Participation is thus a crucial variable in any assessment of land diversion policies. This paper draws on the results of a farm survey to make some predictions about the level and pattern of uptake of a range of such schemes, identifying the characteristics of resistors and adopters and exploring the motives of participants. It is concluded that land diversion will have most appeal to well-placed farmers who are able to justify the diversion of land out of an agricultural use in terms of forestry and conservation plans which have already been laid. The implication is that voluntary schemes may not be especially powerful instruments for bringing about land use changes on the large number of holdings in the U.K. which presently lack any history of conservation or forestry management, at least not without accompanying reductions in the level of market support for agriculture.     

The effects of teenage fatherhood on young adult outcomes

This paper uses national longitudinal data and several new empirical strategies to examine the consequences of teenage fatherhood. The key contribution is to compare economic outcomes of young fathers to young men whose partners experienced a miscarriage rather than a live birth. The results suggest that teenage fatherhood decreases years of schooling and the likelihood of receiving a high school diploma and increases general educational development receipt. Teenage fatherhood also appears to increase early marriage and cohabitation, and has mixed short-term effects on several labor market outcomes.